Early Warning and Early Response

Susanne Schmeidl

Swiss Peace Foundation
and
Howard Adelman (eds.)
York University

Columbia International Affairs Online

1998

Table of Content

Preface

Introduction

Part I: The Preconditions for Early Warning—Why?

1. Defining Humanitarian Early Warning
   Howard Adelman, York University, Canada
2. Intelligence and Early Warning: Lessons from a Case Study
   Gabriel Ben-Dor, University of Haifa, Israel
3. Paradox of Prevention: Successful Prevention Erases the Proof of its Success: A Case for a New Ethic of Evaluation
   Jean Guilmette, IDRC, Canada
4. An Early Warning on UN Early Warning: The World-Wide Web as a Decentralized Alternative
   Gavan Duffy, Syracuse University, US

   Part II: The Information Gatherers—Who?

5. Information and Early Warning: The Role of ReliefWeb
   Sharon Rusu, UNHCR, Switzerland
6. NGOs and Early Warning: The Case of Rwanda
   Bruce Jones, London Schools of Economics, UK and Janice Gross Stein, University of Toronto, Canada
7. The Effects of Media Coverage on Crisis Assessment and Early Warning in the Middle East
   Deborah J. Gerner and Philip Schrodt, University of Kansas, US
8. American Network Coverage of Genocide in Rwanda in the Context of General Trends in International News
   Steven Livingston, George Washington University, US and David Stephen, The News Hour with Jim Lehrer, Denver Bureau, US
9. Early Warning of Violent Conflicts: The Role of Multi-functional Observer Missions
   David Last, The Lester B. Pearson Canadian International Peacekeeping Centre, Canada

   Part III: Quantitative Approaches to Early Warning and Risk Assessment—How?

10. An Early Warning about Political Forecasts: Oracle to Academics
    Dipak Gupta, San Diego State University, US
11. States and People: Assessing Risks of Ethnopolitical Conflicts in the Year 2000
    Will H. Moore, Florida State University, US and Ted Robert Gurr, University of Maryland, College Park, US
12. Quantitative Approaches to Sovereign Risk Assessment: Implications for IMF Response
    Dane Rowlands, Carleton University, Canada

    Part IV: Early Warning and (Early) Responses—What For?

13. Averting Famine Through Linking Early Warning with Response Mechanisms
    Abdur Rashid, FAO, Italy
14. Early (and Late) Warning by the UN Secretary General. Article 99 Revisited
    Walter Dorn, University of Toronto, Canada
15. Bridging the Gap between Warning and Response: Approaches to Analyzing Effective Preventive Interventions Michael Lund, Center for Strategic and International Studies, US
16. Deterrence Strategies and Conflict Prevention: States vs. Institutions
    David Carment, Carleton University, Canada and Frank Harvey, Dalhousie University, Canada
17. From Early Warning and Response to Ethno-Development: A Strategic Approach for Ethnic Conflict Research and Action
    Otto Feinstein and Anthony Perry, Wayne State University, US

    Conclusion