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Early Warning and Early Response, by Susanne Schmeidl and Howard Adelman (eds.)
Otto Feinstein and Anthony Perry
Wayne State University
Ethno-cultural conflict, violent ethno-cultural conflict in particular, are again issues of major concern for researchers, policymakers, the media and citizens. Analysts have not only indicated an increase in this activity but are predicting an acceleration of the phenomenon (Huntington 1996, Barber 1996, Stavenhagen 1996, and Tishkov 1997)
It is our contention that the current phenomena of violent ethnic conflict is the result of past actions of nation-states and the inter-state system, as well as of the current behavior of the nation-states and the inter-state system. If this contention is correct then both the origin of these conflicts and their constructive resolution is to be found in establishing new behavioral patterns by the nation-states and the inter-state system and altering the consequences of past behaviors. We call this process and its institutions: Ethno-Development.
Ethno-Development as a Systemic Approach to Ethno-Cultural Conflict: The Role of Early Warning and Early Response
The notion of developing an Early Warning System for Ethnic Conflict has often been presented as a priority by academic researchers, policymakers, and the general public since the end of the Cold War. The central elements for such an early warning system are vital for having peaceful relations between the nation-state and ethno-cultural groups and among the ethno-cultural groups themselves. At the Synergy meetings in Toronto three central players to any solution of ethnic conflict and ethno-political crises were present: 1) the policymaking community, 2) non-governmental organizations, and 3) the academic community. The meeting was designed to bring together these three communities to articulate a strategy for involving the public, private and voluntary sectors of society in an early warning effort.
After participating at the Synergy meeting (and participating in or organizing many other similar meetings 1 ) we again see a consensus for building a common strategic approach, but with little consensus on what that approach might be. In this article we propose a strategy which would reinforce Ethno-Development, would involve all three sectors (the public, the private and the voluntary), and include the development of an ethno-development infrastructure within and among nation-states (Stavenhagen, 1990).
To construct this approach those concerned with ethnicity, ethnic conflict, ethnic conflict resolution and democratization need to work together, combining the resources that all possess: structurally, politically, socially, culturally and economically. Only by working together can the development and implementation of an ethno infrastructure be accomplished. The first task is the development of a common language and this is the essence of the Early Warning Signal approach from that will flow the three elements presented at the Synergy conference:
A Theoretical Framework: The Modern Nation-State and the Multicultural Reality
In developing this strategy we propose the following hypothesis:
| the type of violent ethno-cultural conflict upon which so much attention has been focused in recent years is the direct result of the way the modern nation-state was created, and its frequent inability to resolve in a non-violent manner the ethnic conflicts which are inherent to its existence. |
If this hypothesis can be shown to be accurate, then the non-violent resolution and/or management of these conflicts depends on a change in the behavior of the state and the norms of the inter-state (inter-national) system, rather than what has been called by many “the de-tribalization of ethnic populations” or the “dis-invention of ethnicity”.
While one could start the development of this hypothesis with the analysis of the Treaty of Westphalia, we will at this stage of our work start with the Treaty of Vienna, ending the Napoleonic Wars (1815) and establishing the modern nation-state as the key political institution. Two variables, on the basis of data collected by the various social sciences which we will presented in our larger study, demonstrate that:
The result of these two variables was that the modern nation-state at its origins did not create an ethno-development infrastructure, and in effect did not involve the ethnic populations in its decision making process. This reality lies at the basis of modern ethnic conflict. The modern nation-state did, however, create an economic-development infrastructure which resulted in three major conditions (the data to be presented in our larger study):
These conditions led to a major increase in domestic and international conflict, three consequences of which were:
The development of the welfare nation-state assured sufficient stability of employment giving many in the industrial nations massive purchasing power for durable goods, such as houses, automobiles, refrigerators, television and a modern service industry. This in turn led to the creation of an international consumer society and the increased globalization of the world economy. Many analysts claim that the productive capacity of this new system can meet most human basic needs. But will the product and the quality of life be shared and with whom? It is in this context that our concern with ethnicity, ethnic conflict, ethnic conflict resolution and democratization must be analyzed. Furthermore, the current context can only be understood by an in-depth knowledge of the history of inter-ethnic relations within each nation-state and the impact of the massive movements of labor, employment and capital on the inter-nation-state system and on its multicultural reality.
The massive changes and their policy implications inherent in the shift from the industrial/production to the communication/information society carry a fundamental contradiction which the students of ethnicity, ethnic conflict, ethnic conflict resolution and democratization must confront: the concept of nation-state based on nation as a mono-ethnic culture from the beginning has not been based on reality but rather the myth of the majority. This myth has been furthered by nearly all modern educational systems, and has made the right-to-self-determination the reference point for dealing with basic changes (Moynihan 1993). As Stavenhagen has pointed out, there are at least 6,000 potential claimants for the right to self-determination. Thus as the inter-national system becomes more and more inter-dependent, the desire for inclusion in decision-making becomes more and more independent. How can this contradiction be dealt with ?
Ethno-development: Early Warning, Conflict Resolution and Education of Adults
Just as the modern nation-state and the inter-nation state system have constructed the economic development infrastructure of modern society leading us to the consumer state, the modern nation-state and the inter-nation state system are the source for the construction of an ethno-development infrastructure creating non-violent inter-relations between the state and the ethnic groups living in its territory. The failure in developing such an infrastructure makes the non-violent coexistence between the state and the different ethno-cultural groups, and between the different ethno-cultural groups living within its sovereign territory, impossible.
The data from our research demonstrates that the make-up of nation-states within the inter-national system have never been uni-ethnic. The nation-states of today all have groups from different ethnic, religious and linguistic origins (Correlates of War – Cultural Data Set). Still with this obvious reality of ethno-cultural heterogeneity in all nation-states we see homogenous ethno-cultural policies being the norm (see Zagar 1997). This simple inability to recognize and deal equitably with the intra-state heterogeneous communities plays a significant role in determining whether or not ethno-cultural crises occur.
The rhetoric that nation-states are based on ethno-cultural homogeneity has never been accurate. Rather, often nation-states have been set-up based on factors which marginalize and alienate certain ethno-cultural groups within their borders. The use of the ethno-development strategy starts with the recognition of this reality. The infra-structure would be built upon the reality of heterogeneous nation-states historically and at present (Stavenhagen 1990).
Ethno-development begins with education. The condition Plato warned us of in Book VII of the Republic, the challenge of not to follow culturally accepted symbols (the shadows) but to search for the complex reality (the light) which we must deal with, requires the education of policy makers, researchers, the media and the public. Adult educators today are involved in all activities where the nation-state meets the (ethnic) public. They are, or at least could be, the first hand observers of ethnic conflict, the users of Early Warning information and actual providers of such information and means of dealing with it.
Gurr and Harff (1996) alerted us of the problems associated with building an early warning system and no one listening. By having those working at the grass-roots directly tied into such an early warning system we hope to address this issue. Adult educators are also able to analyze the impact of changes brought about by intervening variables upon their communities and thus help evaluate conflict resolution strategies. Their relation with the voluntary sector is particularly critical.
Within most countries of the world the voluntary sector plays a significant role in all areas of interaction. The voluntary sector includes organizations that are not for profit nor part of the public (state) sector. They include ethnic and cultural organizations, humanitarian associations, community organizations and many others. They often provide the communication between citizen and the government (Katus 1991). They are essential to the model of ethno-development, because as the state interaction with ethno-cultural groups becomes tense, these are the organizations that can articulate the needs of their memberships and obtain appropriate state responses. They are the demand mechanisms used by citizens when normal political avenues breakdown.
The very development of ethno-cultural voluntary associations is related to the need for an ethno-development strategy. Voluntary associations spring up to fill the vacuum that neither the private nor public sector can fill. When these organizations are not considered legitimate avenues of participation, they are seen as posing a threat to the state apparatus. Often this is the result of refusing to accept the ethno-cultural diversity in the nation-state. This view can lead to aggravation of the conflict as the groups are often the first signal and inter-mediator to an escalating crisis.
To test this aspect of our hypothesis we are working with six groups of adult educators: dealing with democratization, civic literacy and the voluntary sector; with education in the workplace; with teachers in multi-ethnic communities; with community literacy education; with healthcare in multi-ethnic communities; and with constitutional and legal provisions. An initial report on this work will be available by fall 1998.
Synergy and the Research Community: A Unified Data-Base as the Central Link
The Synergy meeting was excellent for developing a dialogue between distinct sectors. Much fruitful information was presented and discussed allowing for each sector to see the other sectors point of view. There was a clear consensus that a strategy needed to be developed for collaboration in each sectors quest for effective early warning of humanitarian ethnic conflict crises. Yet, the consensus for a strategy was left open, with only the FEWER projects given as one possible area for collaboration. To move to the next level it is apparent that an explicit strategy must be laid-out — deliberated, lobbied, amended, and then eventually accepted by those structures that wish to deal with the crises of ethno-political conflict.
The ethno-development strategy requires information from around the world on numerous aspects of ethnicity, culture, conflict, dispute resolution and democratic participation. The information needed has been laid out by social science researchers (see Gurr and Harff 1996, Gurr 1993, Sarkees et al. 1997, Stavenhagen 1996, Tishkov 1997 and Stepanov 1997). Subsequently, as Dipak Gupta (1997) has discussed in his article, there are often duplication of data sources by active researchers studying ethno-political conflict. Often times we see these data-sets as repetitive, nonreproducible and biased in numerous ways. For effective early warning models to be developed and tested we must gather the best data possible. This can only be done by working in collaboration. Working together will allow resources to be used much more effectively, expanding the pool of data available to those concerned with understanding and possibly resolving ethno-cultural violent conflict. This would expand the quality of data and the levels of analysis for studying conflict.
At several of the past organizational meetings focusing on the development of an international generic quantitative, qualitative and inter-active data-base several key areas to be included when studying ethno-cultural conflict were discussed and agreed upon by ethno-cultural researchers from around the world. Listed below is the consensus of needed indicators determined at the meeting held in Ann Arbor in 1995.
An international collaborative data-base is feasible because:
We also know from our past experiences that if this moment of opportunity is lost it may take a generation or more for another such opportunity to occur.
The ethno-development strategy needs to have a data-base as a vehicle for developing its own infrastructure. To have such a data-base with a common language and collaborative strategy for the study of ethnicity, ethnic conflict, ethnic conflict resolution and democratization across disciplinary and international borders will bring the various sectors together. It will facilitate communication between researchers, policy experts, practitioners and the public and by doing so facilitate access to additional and continuously updated information, furthering analysis usable for research and applied knowledge.
The vehicle for development of this common language and collaborative research strategy is the development and implementation of a generic and collaborative data-base, out of which will develop a collaborative and comparative research strategy. Bringing together the networks seen at the Synergy conference and others will expand our parochial and often regional view of ethnicity, culture and ethno-cultural research. It will provide us with large amounts of high quality data, eliminate much wasted duplication in the gathering of data and create the means of interaction for researchers across disciplines and around the world.
This understanding of the competition of needs is essential for peaceful resolution of conflict with the state. The development of a universal data-base through the collaboration of researchers, educators, policy makers, non-governmental organizations and ethnic networks will make the early warning system both real and usable. Doing this goes beyond a consortium for effective management — it calls for an active, real time collaboration. This requires a rethinking of research strategies and data collection. Invariably it calls for a symbiotic relationship to be developed and nurtured between various sectors concerned with ethno-cultural conflict and collaboration. This can begin with the research communities collaboration on the development of a universal data-base that is easily accessible to those in the field focusing on ethno-cultural relations both directly and indirectly.
References
Barber, Benjamin R. 1996. Jihad vs. McWorld: How Globalism and Tribalism are Reshaping the World, Times Books, New York.
Gupta, Dipak 1997. “An Early Warning on Forecasts: From Oracle to the Academics,” Paper Presented at the Synergy and Early Warning Conference, York University’s Refugee Studies Center, Toronto, Canada, March 15– 18, 1997.
Gurr, Ted Robert and Barbara Harff 1996. Early Warning of Communal Conflicts and Genocide:Linking Empirical Research to International Responses, The United Nations University Press, Tokyo, Japan.
Gurr, Ted Robert 1993. Minorities at Risk, United States Institute for Peace Press, Washington, D.C.
Huntington, Samuel P. 1996. The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, Simon and Schuster, New York, NY.
Katus, Jozsef 1991. “Structures of Communication Between Governments and Citizens: Government Information, Voluntary Associations and the Tackling of Social Problems in the Netherlands,” In Voluntary Associations: East and West Europe, 1991, Jozsef Katus and Janos Toth (eds), EuroNetwork Foundation, POB 2008 NL – 1400 DA BUSSUM.
Moynihan. Daniel Patrick 1993. Pandaemonium: Ethnicity and International Politics, Oxford University Press, New York, NY.
Plato, The Republic, Oxford University Press, Oxford England.
Sarkees, Meredith, Anthony Perry and J.David Singer 1997. “The Role of Cultural Identity Groups in Armed Conflict: Building and Extending the Requisite Data-Base.” The Journal of Ethno-Development, forthcoming April 1997, volume 5, Number 1.
Stavenhagen, Rodolfo 1996. Ethnic Conflicts and the Nation-State, St. Martin’s Press, New York, NY.
Stavenhagen, Rodolfo 1990. The Ethnic Question?, United Nations University Press, Tokyo.
tepanov, V.V. 1997. “Data Bank on Ethnicity and Conflict in the Post-Soviet State, ” In The Journal of Ethno-Development, forthcoming, April 1997, volume 5, nb.1.
Tishkov, Valery 1997. Ethnicity, Nationalism and Conflict in and After the Soviet Union: Mind A Flame, Sage Publication, London, UK.
Zagar, Mitja 1997. “Exploring Ethnicity: Constitutional Regulations of (Inter) Ethnic Relations,” In The Journal of Ethno-Development, forthcoming, April 1997, volume 5, number 1.
Endotes
Note 1: A partial list of these meets include: that of the United Nations Research Institute for Social Development (UNRISD) Dubrovnik in June 1991 and follow-up meetings in Moscow in June 1992 and Vancouver in August 1993, a meeting convened by Ted Gurr and Barbara Harff at Maryland in November 1993, a data-base meeting for INCORE in Ulster in 1994, and a meeting in Ann Arbor hosted by J.David Singer and us in January 1995, this year’s Ethnic Studies Network Meeting in Ulster, and the 1997 UNESCO World Conference on Adult Education in Hamburg. Back.
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