European Affairs

 

Summer 2005 Volume 6 - Number 3

Letter from the Editor:

• Listen to the People

European Perspectives

• UK 'Leader-in-Waiting' May Have Longer Wait
  William Keegan, Senior Economics Commentator, London Observer

• Could Italy Be First to Leave the Euro?
  David Hale, Economist, Chicago

• The EU and Latin America Should Forge a Strategic Partnership
  Heinrich Kreft, Deputy Director, Policy Planning Staff, German Foreign Ministry

Transatlantic Relations in 2020

• Europeans Struggle to Win Friends and Influence People in the U.S.
  
  A controversial new report, EU Foreign Political Vision 2020, urges Europeans to do much more to explain the workings of the European Union and its policies to Americans, and to lay thebasis for a genuine Transatlantic partnership in the coming years. The report argues that instead of seeking to impose its will, the United States should use its influence to create consensus. In a spirited debate organized by The European Institute, many American participants sharply criticized the report's conclusions. A number of the Americans urged Europeans to be less inward-looking and concentrate on the more urgent global challenges of the 21st century.

Cover Story:

• The EU Can Continue to Unite Without a Constitution
  Ulrike Guerot, Director of Foreign Policy in Europe, the German Marshall Fund, Berlin
  No more new members will be able to join the EU, after Bulgaria and Romania in 2007, unless the EU introduces institutional reforms of the kind contained in the proposed constitution that has been rejected by French and Dutch voters. Nevertheless, the EU has not been totally immobilized by the constitutional crisis. Many other practical advances toward closer unity can be made without waiting for a new move to constitutional reform, for which momentum may gather toward the end of the decade.

• Blair Seeks to Reshape EU in Britain's Image
  John Palmer, Political Director, European Policy Centre, Brussels
  As the European Union struggles to resolve one of its worst ever crises in the coming months, Britain will be in the presidential chair. Prime Minister Tony Blair sees the presidency as an unprecedented opportunity to start reforming the EU along lines more acceptable to the UK. But that will be neither easy nor achievable during the six-month British presidency. Mr. Blair is in a race to get results before his time in 10 Downing Street runs out.

• EU Economic Reforms Can Also Further Social Justice
  Peter Mandelson, Commissioner for Trade, European Commission
  The French and Dutch referendums have confirmed that many Europeans are disenchanted with the European Union and that its leaders have failed to explain why it is necessary. Europe needs economic reforms and a new social model to confront the challenges of globalization. But that need not involve a complete surrender to market forces. Economic reforms can be married with the traditional European desire for security and social justice.

• Immigration Is Becoming a Key Issue for Europe's Future
  Joanne van Selm, Senior Policy Analyst, Migration Policy Institute
  Popular concern over immigration is affecting all the most difficult items on the European Union's agenda, including the proposed European constitution, EU enlargement, demographic problems and the war on terror. The situation differs from country to country and some fears are misplaced. But if political leaders fail to find answers to voters' anxieties, it will be hard to resolve many of the other challenges confronting Europe.

Opinion

• How the U.S. Could Improve its Image in Europe-wide Opinion
  Jacqueline Grapin, President, The European Institute
  A highly significant development in recent years has been the birth of a European public opinion, initially in reaction to American policies or events in the United States. If anti-Americanism has grown in Europe, it is often because interpretations of these events and policies are widely different on either side of the Atlantic. The United States could help to improve its image in Europe by taking a number of steps, including trying harder to explain its policies and its attitudes to international cooperation, and abandoning periodic attempts to divide France and Germany.

• Don't Drop the EU Constitution: Improve It
  Andrew Duff, Member of the European Parliament (UK)
  Although the current version of the EU constitution is dead, the reasons for it, to make the Union more efficient and democratic, have not disappeared. The best solution would be to revise and improve the constitution to make it more acceptable to European voters and resubmit the new version for ratification when the time is ripe.

UN Reform

• The U.S. Should Show More Visible Leadership
  Wolfgang Ischinger, Ambassador of the Federal Republic of Germany to the United States
  Despite frequent suggestions to the contrary, the U.S. and the EU agree on many fundamental issues of foreign policy. They differ, however, on the role that international institutions should play in shaping the world and promoting democracy, and the U.S. is not living up to its responsibility to take the lead in UN reform. Objections to the proposal for expanding the Security Council put forward by Japan, Germany, India and Brazil do not hold water.

• A More Efficient UN Will Make the World Safer
  Mark P. Lagon, Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Organization Affairs, U.S. Department of State
  The U.S. has long advocated reforming the UN, especially in the fields of management and human rights. We must create a culture in which democracy and human rights are a priority and reform the discredited Commission on Human Rights. A more efficient UN has great potential for furthering freedom and increasing international security.

• Washington Should Reconnect with the Rest of the World
  Mark Malloch Brown, Chef de Cabinet, Executive Office of the Secretary-General, United Nations
  The United States has come up with some good ideas for UN reform, but it is not engaging properly in the international negotiations that are taking place in New York. If reform is to be achieved, Washington must produce proposals that the rest of the world community can support and stop trying to force through change by itself. Europe can act as a bridge to bring the thinking in Washington and New York together.

Economy and Finance

• It Will Take More Than a Falling Dollar to Rebalance the World Economy
  Edwin M. Truman, Senior Fellow, Institute for International Economics
  Although the problem of the world's macroeconomic imbalances has long been acknowledged, little has been done to correct them, largely because the consequences would be so painful. A decline in the dollar will not be enough to solve the problem. U.S. savings must rise, as well as consumption or investment in the rest of the world. Most importantly, the growth of demand must slacken in the United States and increase elsewhere. The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank must help to bring this about.

• 100 Smaller New EU Members May Join the Euro First
  J. Onno de Beaufort Wijnholds, Permanent Representative in Washington, European Central Bank
  The ten countries that joined the EU in May 2004 are all obliged to adopt the euro, although there is no fixed timetable. Estonia, Lithuania and Slovenia have already pegged their currencies to the euro and are keen to join quickly, while some of the bigger countries will want more time. The expansion of the euro area to at least 22 members will not change ECB monetary policies, nor invalidate the need for a single interest rate throughout the area.

• 104 Lithuania - the Case for Quick Euro Entry
  Ramune Zabuliene, Deputy Chair of the Board, Bank of Lithuania
  Lithuania sees considerable benefits and few, if any, disadvantages in joining the euro as quickly as possible. It remains confident that it can meet all the convergence criteria that are preconditions for euro membership by 2007, although keeping tight control on inflation will be the most difficult challenge.

Trade Relations

• We Need a Transatlantic Framework for Economic Growth
  Gunter Verheugen, Vice President and Commissioner for Enterprise and Industry, European Commission
  The EU and U.S. economies are now so closely connected that it is hard to see where one ends and the other begins. But much more can be done to eliminate economic and regulatory barriers between the two sides of the Atlantic. The European Union will best be able to play its part if it builds a stronger economic and social base, by adopting reforms that stimulate economic growth and create more jobs.

The Effects of Enlargement

• New Members Help EU, but Add to Management Problems
  Jaroslaw Pietras, Secretary of State for European Affairs, Poland
  The entry of ten new members in 2004 has not had a great economic impact on the EU, but it is stimulating growth in the new member states and offering new opportunities to the old ones. Enlargement has also focused attention on the need to reform the EU economy, reallocate economic resources and resolve the management problems that the entry of the new members has exacerbated.

• Different Voices Should Be Heard in Brussels
  Eric Stewart, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Europe, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
  The enlargement of the EU has led to important economic reforms in the ten new member states, and big business gains for American companies. But more needs to be done, for example in strengthening intellectual property rights and easing regulations on pharmaceuticals. Washington hopes that the new member states in Central and Eastern Europe will progressively influence Brussels to move in a more liberal direction.

• The EU Economy Will Have to Become more Flexible
  Franklin Vargo, Vice President for International Economic Affairs, National Association of Manufacturers
  EU enlargement will cause some changes in trading patterns and may alter the Union's position in the Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations. But by far the biggest consequence will be to put pressure on the older member states to deregulate their economies and make them more flexible. This will finally lead to faster economic growth in Europe, which will have a salutary effect on world trade.

Industry

• The EU Wants Open Skies over the Atlantic
  Jacques Barrot, Vice President and Commissioner for Transport, European Commission
  The markets for air travel have been liberalized on both sides of the Atlantic, but numerous barriers still prevent free competition in aviation between the European Union and the United States. The European Commission is persisting in its efforts to make European air travel more efficient and competitive. But it also wants to negotiate a comprehensive agreement with the United States that would open up the Transatlantic market.

Homeland Security

• Today's Terrorists Would Like to Conduct Chemical and Biological Attacks
  Georg Witschel, Coordinator for Prevention and Combating International Terrorism, German Foreign Ministry
  In the last 20 years there have been very few terrorist attacks involving biological or chemical weapons, but there are many reasons why terrorists will seek to use them in future. Modern terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda want to inflict high numbers of civilian casualties and instill maximum fear and panic. Germany is doing its best to counter this threat, and action is also being taken by the European Union and NATO.

• The U.S. Cannot Defeat Terrorism Unilaterally
  John R. Dinger, Deputy Coordinator for Counter Terrorism, U.S. Department of State
  The United States reserves the right to take direct action to protect itself from terrorist attacks, but it acknowledges that terrorism will only be defeated with the help of other nations. Bioterrorism presents unique and frightening threats that make international cooperation especially important. We must also learn from real world outbreaks of contagious diseases, such as SARS.

• U.S. Lead in Countering Bioterrorism Could Create Acute Problems
  Richard A. Falkenrath, Visiting Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies Program, The Brookings Institution
  There has been far too little international cooperation on fighting bioterrorism, leaving the United States far ahead in the field. This could cause agonizing problems in the event of a serious bioterror attack, in which the United States might face the dilemma of protecting other countries or its own population.

• New Biological Defenses Will Be Part of the Answer
  Dr. Charles Gallaway, Director, Chemical-Biological Defense Directorate, Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Defense Programs, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, U.S. Department of Defense
  The scientific community is working on a multi-stage strategy that would protect people before an attack occurred, improve detection if it did, and treat people quickly after an outbreak started. New ways of thinking, and new kinds of biological defenses, are showing promise, and there can be no doubt that technological advances will provide part of the answer to bioterrorism.

Book Reviews

• Road to Beijing: U.S. and EU Follow Different Paths
  Embracing the Dragon: The EU's partnership with China
  By Katinka Barysch, with Charles Grant and Mark Leonard
  Reviewed by Glennon J. Harrison

• What Future for a Godless Europe?
  The Cube and the Cathedral: Europe, America, and Politics Without God
  By George Weigel
  Reviewed by Helle Dale