CIAO DATE: 02/05

The Washington Quarterly

Winter 2004-5, Volume 28, Number 1

• Editor's Note (PDF, 2 pages, 36 KB) - Alexander T. J. Lennon

Provocations

Ideas for how to improve democracy building, governance, nonproliferation, and more ...

• How to Construct Stable Democracies (PDF, 12 pages, 73 KB)
  Jack A. Goldstone and Jay Ulfelder

  Why are some states politically stable and others not? An extensive study by a dozen experts analyzing political instability during the last 50 years suggests two critical ingredients to succeed (and how to fail) in building stable democracies around the world.

• Who's Behind That Curtain? Unveiling Potential Leverage over Pyongyang (PDF, 24 pages, 117 KB)
  Michael Horowitz

  To influence Pyongyang's strategic choices, U.S. options may be much broader than military threats or appeals to China. Here are the cultural-political, military, and five key economic sources of potential leverage over Pyongyang today and the states that wield them.

• A Nuclear Weapons–Free Zone in the Middle East: A Pie in the Sky? (PDF, 14 pages, 85 KB)
  Claudia Baumgart and Harald Müller

  The Middle East is undergoing fundamental transformations that could change the prospects for a nuclear weapons–free region. What is important today is to get a head start on technical elements to prepare the foundation for, and even contribute to, the right political environment.

• The New Battleground: Central Asia and the Caucasus (PDF, 12 pages, 73 KB)
  Ilan Berman

  The new U.S. strategic emphasis on Central Asia and the Caucasus; Russia's domestic economic priorities; and Moscow's increasingly assertive, neo-imperial foreign policy are likely to test the very limits of the strategic partnership between Moscow and Washington.

• Strengthening Governance: Ranking Countries Would Help (PDF, 12 pages, 79 KB)
  Robert I. Rotberg

  The threat of nation-state failure makes improving governance an urgent task. A more comprehensive, mostly objective, and quantifiable method of ranking developing countries according to their governmental performance accomplishments is required.

  Pakistan: Global Security's Pivotal State

  A closer look at the forces changing today's strategic linchpin and new strategies to improve the efforts.

• The Role of Islam in Pakistan's Future (PDF, 12 pages, 72 KB)
  Husain Haqqani

  Pakistan has become a major center of radical Islamist ideas and groups. Unless Islamabad's objectives are redefined to focus on economic prosperity and popular participation in governance, the state will continue to turn to Islam as a national unifier.

• U.S. Strategy: Assisting Pakistan's Transformation (PDF, 20 pages, 103 KB)
  Ashley J. Tellis

  If Pakistan is to become a moderate, peaceful Muslim state, its political process must be reformed indigenously. Washington should concentrate its assistance on safeguarding Pakistan's nuclear estate and restoring democracy as part of a grand bargain with Islamabad.

• What If Pakistan Fails? India Isn't Worried ... Yet (PDF, 12 pages, 68 KB)
  C. Raja Mohan

  Few decisionmakers in New Delhi are convinced that Pakistani state failure is imminent. Nevertheless, India should consider five elements for a contingency strategy to account for potential radical changes in Pakistani state and society.

  Do International Norms Really Matter?

  Forget the academic jargon. A closer look at practical examples (and failures) in terrorism, democracy, and biological weapons.

• Terrorism: Denying Al Qaeda Its Popular Support (PDF, 16 pages, 87 KB)
  Steven Simon and Jeff Martini

  A new post-9/11 consensus that terrorism violates the principles of the international community is emerging among states. Expanding this international norm to the aggrieved populations that terrorists claim to represent is a crucial component in the war on terrorism.

• Democracy Promotion as a World Value (PDF, 18 pages, 92 KB)
  Michael McFaul

  Although norms protecting the sovereignty of states still trump norms protecting the rights of individuals, the balance is shifting. Democracy promotion has become increasingly acceptable as a foreign policy goal throughout most of the international community.

• Biological Weapons: Can Fear Overwhelm Inaction? (PDF, 14 pages, 89 KB)
  Amy E. Smithson

  The norm against biological weapons lacks force. Roughly 80 years after the Geneva Protocol first embraced a norm against biological weapons, the international community finds itself almost back at square one.

  Research Survey
  A review of the literature on the new roles for U.S. nuclear weapons and what's not being asked, but should.

• The Role of U.S. Nuclear Weapons after September 11 (PDF, 16 pages, 94 KB)
  Josiane Gabel

  U.S. nuclear posture still reflects decisions made during the Cold War. This survey reviews the literature available on the role of U.S. nuclear weapons in the post-September 11 security environment, concluding that a renewed debate and contemporary research is needed.