Columbia International Affairs Online: Working Papers

CIAO DATE: 02/2011

CTTA: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis Year End Report 2010

Rohan Gunaratna Gunaratna

January 2011

S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies


Transnational terrorism is likely to remain the most profound threat in 2011. Politically motivated groups that seek to legitimize their thinking and actions by using, misusing and misinterpreting the religious text , will continue to dominate the global threat landscape. While homegrown and group terrorism are likely to remain at the forefront, homegrown terrorism in particular will continue to be a formidable challenge for security. There will also be more pressure for Western military troops in Afghanistan, both in combat and support roles, to return home due to the decreas- ing public support for the war and domestic political considerations. Global terrorism will be driven and sustained largely by the geopolitical pressures and developments in the Middle East and Asia. In particular, four regions- Pakistan and Afghanistan, the Levant- Arabian Peninsula, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb-Sahel would be of concern.