CIAO DATE: 07/2008
Turkey and the EU - Four Scenarios: From Train Crash to Full Steam Ahead
Kirsty Hughes
September 2006
Chatham House
Abstract
This report analyses the factors leading up to the EU-Turkey accession talks and explores four possible outcomes:
- Full Steam Ahead: A compromise package is found on northern Cyprus that gives Turkey enough room to manoeuvre to open its ports.
- Minor Derailment: A small number of chapters, directly related to Customs Union issues are frozen.
- Into a siding: A substantial slowdown of negotiations, possibly combined with a (tougher or milder) 'rendez-vous' clause for the EU to revisit the issue.
- Major train crash: A full suspension of negotiations or a blocking of negotiations chapter by chapter.
It assesses the political environment in the EU, Turkey and Cyprus and considers the different political and policy choices that the key actors will face this autumn, and the implications of the main scenarios that may unfold.
Resource link: Turkey and the EU - Four Scenarios: From Train Crash to Full Steam Ahead [PDF]
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