CIAO DATE: 01/2014
December 2013
The Security Council issued 1,557 demands to conflict parties in civil wars in the 15 years following the end of the Cold War, through its resolutions. Based on a statistical analysis of IPI’s Security Council Compliance Database, this report shows that while the levels of compliance with these demands varied, there was a slight increase in compliance over time. What factors influence the likelihood that conflict parties will comply? The authors find the following: Conflict parties are less likely to heed the Security Council’s demands if there is an ongoing civil war in a neighboring country; if there are significant sources of lootable natural resources; or if there has been a negative political shock, such as a shift toward autocracy. Conflict parties are more likely to comply with the Council’s demands if a multidimensional peacekeeping operation is present in the country. However, demands made in the presence of a traditional peacekeeping operation, alongside a current or previously imposed sanctions regime, or following a Security Council field mission tend to be associated with lower odds of compliance. Interestingly, a lack of continuous consensus among the permanent members of the Security Council is positively associated with compliance. The authors hypothesize that the shift from great-power disagreement to consensus can send a powerful signal to spoilers to heed their demands. The authors conclude that it is particularly important for the Security Council to design its conflict management strategy with a strong basis in reality on the ground. They also warn against the spillover effects of persistent noncompliance with its demands across conflicts. Nonetheless, they suggest that the Council should not choose inaction over taking a principled stance when needed, even if it fears aggressors will not abide by its demands.
Resource link: When Do Civil-War Parties Heed the UN? Findings from the IPI Security Council Compliance Database [PDF] - 4.1M