Columbia International Affairs Online: Working Papers

CIAO DATE: 01/2015

A Key Update: Afghan Forces on the Edge of Transition: Sharply Contradictory Data on Levels of Violence

Anthony H. Cordesman, Aaron Lin, Michael Peacock

November 2014

Center for Strategic and International Studies

Abstract

The summary data in this report provides a deeply disturbing picture of the recent unclassified data on the fighting. The new data from the Asia Foundation survey are not all negative, and reflect many positive trends the new government in Afghanistan can build upon. At the same time, they show that the Taliban and other insurgents have far more influence and impact on security in given parts of the country than ISAF and the US have been willing to admit. The data reinforces the need for transparency, and for honesty rather than spin and attempts to sell the war and current process of Transition at a time when ISAF and the US have virtually ceased to report any metrics or hard data on the fighting, limiting information to press briefings.