Columbia International Affairs Online: Working Papers

CIAO DATE: 10/2014

The Forces Shaping Transition in Afghanistan: 2014-2016

Anthony H. Cordesman

September 2014

Center for Strategic and International Studies

Abstract

If there is any lesson I have learned during the time between Vietnam and the present, it is that we perpetually seek simplicity and good news in wars that are extraordinarily complex, and that we spin the facts into some simple justification of what we are already doing -- rather than honestly face the far more challenging mix of problems and risks that actually shape a conflict.