CIAO DATE: 03/02

Strange Victory: A critical appraisal of Operation Enduring Freedom and the Afghanistan war

Carl Conetta

PDA Research Monograph #6
30 January 2002

The Project on Defense Alternatives

Companion study: Operation Enduring Freedom: Why a Higher Rate of Civilian Bombing Casualties

Table of Contents

Introduction

1. What has Operation Enduring Freedom accomplished?

1.1 The fruits of victory

1.1.1 Secondary goals

1.2 The costs of the war

1.2.1 The humanitarian cost of the war

1.2.2 Stability costs

2. Avoidable costs: the road not taken

3. War in search of a strategy

3.1 The Taliban become the target

3.2 Initial war strategy: split the Taliban

3.2.1 Romancing the Taliban

3.2.2 Pakistan: between the devil and the red, white, and blue

3.3 The first phase of the air campaign: a lever without a fulcrum

3.3.1 Strategic bombardment: alienating hearts and minds

3.4 A shift in strategy -- unleashing the dogs of war

4. A theater redefined

4.1 Reshuffling Afghanistan

4.2 Regional winners and losers

4.3 The structure of post-war Afghan instability

4.3.1 The Bonn agreement: nation-building or "cut and paste"?

4.3.2 Peacekeepers for Afghanistan: too little, too late

4.4 A new game: US and Afghan interests diverge

4.4.1 A failure to adjust

5. The tunnel at the end of the light

5.1 The path charted by Enduring Freedom

5.2 The triumph of expediency

5.3 The ascendancy of Defense

5.4 Realism redux

5.5 Bread and bombs

5.6 The fog of peace

Appendix 1. The war's impact on the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan

A1.1 Estimating the cost in lives of Afghanistan's humanitarian crisis.

A1.2 Estimating the impact of the war.

A1.3 The interaction of relief efforts and war: a closer look

Sources on the war and the humanitarian crisis

Appendix 2. The missing political framework for Operation Enduring Freedom

A2.1 Laying the legal and cooperative foundation for decisive action on Afghanistan

A2.2 Quarantine of the Afghanistan conflict and relief of the humanitarian crisis

A2.3 Creating a transitional government and preparing for post-conflict transition

A2.4 Building Pakistani cooperation in charting a new course for Afghanistan

A2.5 Reducing tensions in the Kashmir and Israeli-Palestinian disputes

Appendix 3. The rise and fall of the Taliban: a note on their strategy and power

A3.1 The dilemma of Taliban success

A3.2 Air power and the disappearing Taliban

A3.3 What were the Taliban thinking?

Sources

Appendix 4. The limits of the Bonn agreement and the challenges facing the interim government

Notes