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CIAO DATE: 03/02
Strange Victory: A critical appraisal of Operation Enduring Freedom and the Afghanistan war
Carl Conetta
PDA Research Monograph #6
30 January 2002
Note 1: Carl von Clausewitz, On War, (Middlesex, UK: Penguin Classics, 1968), Book V, "Plan of war," Chapter 6 (b), p. 402. Back.
Note 2: All wars have unique features but few are labeled as being exceptional in this regard. In fact, during the 1990s, the United States conducted several quite distinctive types of wars and combat operations. With regard to the "war on terrorism": it has been underway in one form or another for almost twenty years. Michael R. Gordon, "A New Kind of War Plan," New York Times, 7 October 2001, p. 1; Michael R. Gordon, "A New War and its Scale," New York Times, 17 September 2001, p. 1; Judy Keen, "Bush Rethinks Principles for 'Different Kind of War'," USA Today, 16 October 2001, p. 13; Don Melvin, "A New Kind of War: Enemy, Victory Hard to Define; Americans Face Long, Expensive Effort," Atlanta Journal and Constitution, 18 September 2001, p. 6; Robert Salladay, "New Kind of Enemy, New Kind of Response; Civilization Confronts Warriors Who Have No Limits," San Francisco Chronicle, 30 September 2001, p. 9; and, Jon Sawyer, "War Against 'A Different Enemy' Could Take Time," St. Louis Post-Dispatch, 16 September 2001, p. 1. Back.
Note 3: The murder by foreign agents of almost 3,000 US civilians in less than two hours is without historical precedent. Glenn Collins, "Historians Weigh Attack's Impact On New York City," New York Times, 6 October 2001, p. 13; and, Edward T. O'donnell, "Sept. 11 attack without precedent in modern history," Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 18 September 2001, p. 15. Back.
Note 4: The Pentagon has been reluctant to give estimates of the numbers of foreign military or civilian personnel killed in the war. However, on 8 November Defense Secretary Rumsfeld said that he was receiving regular reports indicating an average of two dozen enemy fatalities every day. In late November Pentagon personnel were estimating that several hundred Al Qaeda members had been killed during the first seven weeks of war. (Al Qaeda troops constituted less than 8 percent of the Taliban total force). Also, US special forces teams have been credited with the deaths of 1300 Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters. (Kirk Spitzer, "Green Berets outfought, out thought Taliban," USA Today, 7 January 2002, p.1.)
Apart from official reports, there are good accounts by leading participants and eyewitnesses of numerous battle deaths, among these: reports of up to 500 Taliban killed in battles leading to the fall of Mazar-i-Sharif, 85 Taliban killed in the bombardment of the village of Dar-e Suf, 300-400 hundred killed in battles in and around Konduz and Taloqan, 300 Taliban killed from one unit of 800 defending Kabul, 300 Taliban killed in a battle around Tarin Kot (near Kandahar), dozens more in other battles and convoy interdictions preceding the fall of Kandahar, and more than 200 in the battle of Tora Bora. Although these accounts certainly involve some exaggeration, they reflect only a portion the war's combat engagements. Notably, they exclude an accounting of engagements in Herat province and the southwest generally, give only a partial accounting of battles in and around Kabul and Kandahar, and cover only one battle in the areas to the east and south of Kabul. They also mostly do not cover losses suffered from the routine "strategic" bombardment of leadership sites, military infrastructure, and troop residences. Finally, these accounts do not cover Taliban coalition troops killed while in custody.
The Red Cross has reported burying "hundreds" of individuals around each of several major battle zones — although these dead may include soldiers on both sides as well as civilians.
Sources on Taliban combat deaths:
"600 bodies discovered in Mazar-i-Sharif: ICRC," Agence France Presse, 22 November 2001;
Ellen Barry and Elizabeth Neuffer, "Opposition Says Taliban Losses Mount Key Battle Seen Near," Boston Globe, 12 November 2001, p. 1;
Mohamad Bazzi, "Taliban Fighter's Reluctant Retreat," Newsday (New York), 15 November 2001, p. 5;
William Branigin and Keith B. Richburg, "Alliance Surges Across North; Rebels Threaten To Cut Supplies Of Taliban Force," Washington Post, 12 November 2001, p. 1;
Karen DeYoung, "More Bombing Casualties Alleged; UN Aide 'Concerned'; Rumsfeld Defends Airstrike Targeting," Washington Post, 4 January 2002, p. 18;
Will Englund, "Konduz falls amid looting, chaos; Hospital ransacked; U.N. relief supplies, trucks among booty," Baltimore Sun, 27 November 2001, p. 1;
Dexter Filkins, "Foreigners Allied With Taliban Cling to a Surrounded Stronghold," New York Times, 18 November 2001, p. 1;
Peter Finn, "Wounded Army Captain Details Offensive Against Taliban," Washington Post, 11 December 2001, p. 1;
Robert Fisk, "Blood, Tears, Terror and Tragedy Behind the Taliban Lines," The Independent (London), 26 November 2001, p. 1;
Pauline Jelinek, "U.S. Keeps Lists for Afghan War," AP Online, 30 November 2001;
Matt Kelley, "Pentagon's top war commander says progress satisfactory in Afghanistan," Associated Press, 8 November 2001;
Sharon LaFraniere, "Bombing of Enclave Intensifies; Several Thousand Hold Out in Taliban's Northern Stronghold," Washington Post, 19 November 2001, p. 14;
LaFraniere and Lois Raimondo, "Rebels Begin Advance on Konduz; Fighting Is Heavy As Afghan Talks Bring No Surrender," Washington Post, 23 November 2001, p. 1;
Rory McCarthy in Kabul and Nicholas Watt, "Surrender: Alliance accused of brutality in capture of Konduz: Wounded prisoners shot and left to die," The Guardian (London), 27 November 2001, p. 5;
Alex Perry, "Mass Slaughter of the Taliban's Foreign Jihadists," Time, 26 November 2001, p. 60;
David Pratt, "No mercy for those caught up in a day of killing," The Herald (Glasgow), 23 November 2001, p. 1;
Keith B. Richburg and Doug Struck, "Afghan Rebels Lay Claim to Key City; Attack Backed by U.S. Airpower Causes; Taliban to Flee 'in Droves'," Washington Post, 10 November 2001, p. 1;
Kirk Spitzer, "Green Berets outfought, out thought Taliban," USA Today, 7 January 2002, p.1; and,
Philip Smucker, "To Tora Bora's Afghan victors, go the spoils," Christian Science Monitor, 18 December 2001, p. 1. Back.
Note 5: In late November US Central Command estimated that "several hundred" Al Qaeda rank-and-file had been killed during the first seven weeks of war. In addition, as many as 200 were killed in the subsequent Tora Bora battle — and perhaps more. Presumably Al Qaeda troops were killed elsewhere in Afghanistan (and Pakistan) during December as well. It is unclear if the November estimate by Central Command includes any accounting of Al Qaeda troops killed in captivity by Northern Alliance troops or of those killed during the Qala-i-Jangi prison riot. Pauline Jelinek, "U.S. Keeps Lists for Afghan War," AP Online, 30 November 2001. Back.
Note 6: John Moore, "International Red Cross visits Taliban prisoners held by Marines at Kandahar base," Associated Press, 29 December 2001; Matt Kelley, "Twenty more suspected al-Qaida fighters sent to U.S. Marine base in Afghanistan," Associated Press, 27 December 2001; and, Deborah Hastings, associated press writer, "7,000 Taliban, al-Qaida Being Held," Washington Post, 21 December 2001. Back.
Note 7: James Risen, "Taliban Chiefs Prove Elusive, Americans Say," New York Times, 20 December 2001, p. 1; Jelinek, "U.S. Keeps Lists for Afghan War," AP Online, 30 November 2001; and, Rowan Scarborough, "Probers told of Taliban deaths," Washington Times, 12 January 2002. Back.
Note 8: Bradley Graham, "Strikes level Al Qaeda camp; three terrorist leaders captured or dead," Washington Post, 8 January 2002; and, Jelinek, "U.S. Keeps Lists for Afghan War," AP Online, 30 November 2001. Back.
Note 9: Walter Pincus, "Al Qaeda to survive bin Laden, Panel told," Washington Post, 19 December 2001. Back.
Note 10: Peter Grier, "A reluctant empire stretches more; As the US begins to establish semi-permanent bases in Central Asia, troops are now deploying in the Philippines," Christian Science Monitor, 17 January 2002. Back.
Note 11: Steve Kosiak, Estimated Cost of Operation Enduring Freedom: The First Two Months, CSBA Backgrounder (Washington DC: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 7 December 2001), available at: <http://www.csbaonline.org> Back.
Note 12: Ahmed Rashid, "How my friend outwitted the mullahs," Daily Telegraph (London), 8 December 2001, p. 4. Back.
Note 13: Carl Conetta, Operation Enduring Freedom: why a higher rate of civilian casualties?, PDA Briefing Report 11, 15 January 2002. Back.
Note 14: Sources on reprisal killing and treatment of prisoners:
"600 bodies discovered in Mazar-i-Sharif: ICRC," Agence France Presse, 22 November 2001;
"Anti-terror coalition under fire for refusing massacre probe," Agence France Presse, 30 November 2001;
"Taleban Prisoners Died in Sealed Containers," The Scotsman, 12 December 2001, p. 6;
"International Red Cross investigating reports of Taliban prisoner container deaths," AP Worldstream, 11 December 2001;
"Dozens of Taliban prisoners died in airtight containers: report," Agence France Presse, 11 December 2001;
Yvonne Abraham, "UN Backs Reports of Mass Execution Says Opposition Killed Recruits Hiding at School," Boston Globe, 14 November 2001, p. 33;
Oliver August, "CIA blunder sparked Taleban revolt that became a mass suicide," The Times (London), 28 November 2001;
Mark Baker, "Taliban prisoners 'executed'," The Age (Australia), 30 November 2001;
Matthew Campbell, "How they killed the cornered foreigners," Sunday Times (London), 9 December 2001;
Rory Carroll, "Afghan jailers beat confessions from men," The Guardian (London), 28 December 2001, p. 13;
Guy Dinmore and Richard Mcgregor, "West fears Alliance could be as brutal as the Taliban: UN receives reports of executions as even supporters of the opposition question its leaders' fitness to govern," Financial Times (London), 13 November 2001, p. 26;
Michael Ellison, "US Taliban fighter describes fortress horror in New York," 3 December 2001, The Guardian (UK);
Carlotta Gall with Mark Landler, "Prison Packed With Taliban Raises Concern," New York Times, 5 January 2002, p. 1;
Carlotta Gall, "Prison Sealed Off as U.S. Picks Inmates to Interrogate," New York Times, 30 December 2001, p. B1;
Gall, "Witnesses Say Many Taliban Died in Custody," New York Times, 11 December 2001, p. 1;
Michael R. Gordon, "One Certainty So Far for Captured Fighters: Conditions Are Awful," New York Times, 18 December 2001, p. B4;
Steven Gutkin, "Alliance soldier describes executing five Taliban prisoners to avenge relatives' deaths," Associated Press, 16 November 2001;
Luke Harding and Simon Tisdall, "Fatal errors that led to massacre; Guardian reveals blunders by US," The Guardian (UK), 1 December 2001;
Justin Huggler, What Really Happened in Qalai Janghi?", The Independent (London), 30 November 2001, p. 17;
Ellen Knickmeyer, "Taliban Members Killed in Konduz," Associated Press, 26 November 2001;
Rory McCarthy in Kabul and Nicholas Watt, "Surrender: Alliance accused of brutality in capture of Konduz: Wounded prisoners shot and left to die," The Guardian (London), 27 November 2001, p. 5;
Greg Myre, "More than 100 Taliban fighters killed in northern Afghan city," Associated Press, 13 November 2001;
Lynne O'Donnell, "Surrender and be slaughtered; Giving in can be just as deadly as battle, as some Taliban found in Mazar-e Sharif," Weekend Australian, 22 December 2001, p. 17;
Anne Penketh, "Opposition admits to massacre of 520 soldiers," Independent (UK), 16 Nov 2001;
Alex Perry, "Mass Slaughter of the Taliban's Foreign Jihadists," Time, 26 November 2001, p. 60;
David Rohde, "Foreigners Who Fought For Taliban Shot in Head," New York Times, 19 November 2001, p. B3;
Andy Soloman, "Afghan Leader Describes Executions Says US Forces Protested Killings," Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 30 November 2001, p. W1;
Richard Waddington, "Geneva Conventions Apply Even in Afghanistan — Red Cross," Reuters, 28 November 2001;
David Ward, "Mazar: Massacre of 500 Taliban blamed on alliance: Foreign recruits shown no mercy in school attack," The Guardian (London), 16 November 2001;
Paul Watson, "Talibs Taken Prisoner Languish in the Dark; Afghanistan: Red Cross says it hasn't been able to gain access to--and monitor--detainees crowded into small cells deprived of light," Los Angeles Times, 18 November 2001; and,
Nicholas Watt, Richard Norton-Taylor, and Luke Harding, "Spoils of war: Allies justify mass killing in fort: Valuables stripped from Taliban troops after slaughter," The Guardian (London), 29 November 2001, p.1. Back.
Note 15: Military Assistance to the Afghan Opposition, Human Rights Watch Backgrounder, October 2001 <http://www.hrw.org/backgrounder/asia/afghan-bck1005.htm> Robert Fisk, "Our Friends Are Killers, Crooks and Torturers," Independent (UK), 7 October 2001; and, Thomas Walkom, "Unholy alliance - West's new allies include vitriolic anti-Americans, human-rights violators, former allies of Osama bin Laden and more," Toronto Star, 7 October 2001. Back.
Note 16: Naveed Ahmad, "Donors doing very little for Afghanistan, admits UN," The News (Pakistan), 16 January 2002. Also see Section 4. A theater redefined. Back.
Note 17: A survey of attitudes about the war conducted in November and December by Gallup International found 82 percent of Pakistanis opposing the US effort versus 8 percent in support. In two other Muslim countries polled the balance of opinion was less extreme, but still notable: In Turkey opponents outnumbered supporters 69 to 16 percent; in Malaysia, 67 to 13 percent. A leadership survey conducted between 12 November and 13 December by the International Herald Tribune and the Pew Research Center found that six in ten of the leaders surveyed in Egypt, Pakistan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan thought the US attack on Afghanistan was an over-reaction. A year-end pan-Arab poll by the Saudi Arabic-language newspaper Okaz chose President George W. Bush as the second "worst personality of 2001". Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was given first place; Bin Laden, a distant third — with a disapproval rating one-third that of President Bush. Brian Knowlton, "How the world sees the US and Sept. 11," IHT, 20 December 2001; "Sharon, Bush, Bin Laden Most Hated men of Year in Saudi Poll," Tehran Times, 1 January 2002; "US-Arab relations 'in crisis'", BBC Online News, 10 November 2001; Gallup International poll on terrorism, Gallup International, 9 January 2002, available at: Back.
Note 18: "Pakistan Jilted as Afghans Warm Up to India," Stratfor.com, 2 January 2002; "Geopolitical Fallout in Pakistan," Eurasia Insight, 8 November 2001, available at: <http://www.eurasianet.org> John F. Burns, "Musharraf's Bind," New York Times, 8 January 2002, p. 1; John F. Burns, "Pakistan's Anxiety Grows as Taliban Collapse," New York Times, 25 November 2001; Ahmed Rashid, "Post-Taliban Order Is a Source of Concern For Pakistan," Eurasia Insight, 19 January 2002, available at:<http://www.eurasianet.org> and, Syed Saleem Shahzad, "All's not well in Musharraf's camp," Asia Times, 5 January 2002. Back.
Note 19: Shortly after the start of Operation Enduring Freedom, India moved troops to the Line of Control in Kashmir, asserting its right to take action against Pakistan-based militants and terrorists. Pakistan responded with a major force re-deployment of its own. Richard Wolffe, "Kashmir threat to Washington's regional policy: Both India and Pakistan have sought to leverage the US war against terrorism in their hostilities," Financial Times (London), 4 January 2002, p. 9. Back.
Note 20: Between 11 September and 31 December 2001 the death toll for Palestinians was 279; for Israelis, 85. Since the beginning of the recent Intifada in September 2000 as many as 912 Palestinians and 250 Israelis have been killed. Brian Kates, "Bush to Arafat: Make Arrests," Daily News (New York), 2 December 2001, p. 4; "Palestinian Deaths Double Since 911," Agence France Presse, 13 November 2001; and, Palestine Red Crescent web site, mortality statistics; available at:<http://www.palestinercs.org> Back.
Note 21: Fouad Ajami, "What the Muslim World Is Watching," New York Times, 18 November 2001, Section 6, p. 48; T. Christian Miller, "Islamic Summit Implies Its Support; Mideast: The largest international Muslim group avoids condemning the U.S. attacks on the Taliban, but calls for progress in Mideast peace process," Los Angeles Times, 11 October 2001, p. 3; and, Philip Smucker, "Egypt cautions West on intruding," Christian Science Monitor, 31 December 2001, p. 4. Back.
Note 22: "Islamic States Seeking Unified Voice, Stratfor.com, 23 November 2001; and, Nadeem Malik, "Pakistan calls Chinese friendship into play," Asia Times, 5 January 2002. Back.
Note 23: David Corn, "Unlikely Doves: Counter-terrorism Experts," AlterNet, 28 September 2001; Bob Deans, "Quick, targeted raids may be U.S. Strategy," Atlanta Journal and Constitution, 30 September 2001, p. A13; John Donnelly and Anne E. Kornblut, "A US Plan Eyes Commando Raid on Bin Laden," Boston Globe, 15 September 2001, p. A8; Tyler Marshall, "Limited, Low Profile Strategy Called Key; Afghanistan: Neither a massive U.S. attack nor token reprisals can achieve America's objectives, experts say," Los Angeles Times, 25 September 2001, p. 5; Doyle Mcmanus and Esther Schrader, "Emphasis on Small, Covert Operations," Los Angeles Times, 6 October 2001, p. 1; and, Bill Nichols and Dave Moniz, "American ready to sacrifice; Experts predict U.S. will fight 1st extended commando war," USA Today, 17 September 2001, p. 1A. Back.
Note 24: International Gallup Association, Poll on International Terrorism in the United States (London, IGA, September 2001), available at<http://www.gallup-international.com> Back.
Note 25: "Proceed with Extreme Caution," Asiaweek, 28 September 2001; "Unity Falters over Issue of Civilian Deaths," Buffalo News, 27 September 2001, p. 1; "Race to Deliver Afghan Aid," BBC News online, 2 October 2001; Stephen Fidler, "US Split into Two Camps on Aims of Anti-terrorist Campaign; Coalition-building and International Support for Narrow Attack on Bin Laden Would Be Easier to Obtain," Financial Times (London), 20 September 2001; George Jones and Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, "Summit split as EU leaders snub call to overthrow Kabul regime," Daily Telegraph (London), 20 October 2001; Tyler Marshall and Paul Watson, "Aid Workers Fear a Major US Offensive Could Trigger Mass Starvation in a Land Where Millions Are Already Suffering," Los Angeles Times, 17 September 2001, p. 1; Martin Merzer, Warren P. Strobel, and Tom Infield, "Cracks in Anti-terrorism Coalition Pauses Military Strikes," Knight Ridder News Service, 3 October 2001; T. Christian Miller, "A Growing Global Chorus Calls for Proof; Diplomacy: Many Leaders Fear That Retaliation Without a Public Show of Evidence Could Trigger Greater Mideast Violence," Los Angeles Times, 24 September 2001, p. 10; TR Reid and William Drozdiak, "Allies Express Support, Caution; EU Leaders Back Bush, but Urge Care in Military Strikes," Washington Post, 23 September 2001, p. 18. Back.
Note 26: "Turkey Declares Support for US Actions, but Adds Reservations," AP Worldstream, 28 September 2001; "Saudi Air Base off Limits to US," The Australian (Reuters), 24 September 2001, p. 2; Tarek Al-issawi, Gulf Nations Weigh US Call for Anti-terrorism Coalition, but Many Are Hesitant, Associated Press, 19 September 2001; Barry Bearak, "In Pakistan, a Shaky Ally," New York Times, 2 October 2001, p.1; Julian Borger, Brian Whitaker, and Richard Norton-Taylor, "On the Brink of War: Diplomacy: Saudis Draw Their Line in the Sand: Rumsfeld Tries to Talk Riyadh into Conceding Use of Air Bases," Guardian (London), 4 October 2001, p. 3; John F. Burns, "Pakistan Antiterror Support Avoids Vow of Military Aid," New York Times, 16 September 2001, p. 5; Jean-Michel Cadiot, "Iran Opposes US Revenge Against Afghanistan, Seeks Muslim Consensus,"Agence France Presse, 17 September 2001; Edmund H. Mahony, "Asian and Middle Eastern Leaders Face a Hard Choice: Helping US Fight Terrorism Risks Infuriating Muslim Fundamentalists," Hartford Courant, 17 September 2001, p. 1; Larry Kaplow, "Arab Sympathy for US Has Limits; Retaliation Targets a Key," Atlanta Journal and Constitution, 16 September 2001, p. 17; Molly Moore and Kamran Khan, "Pakistan Warns US on Afghan Role; Alliance with Anti-Taliban Forces Could Bring 'Disaster,' Official Says," Washington Post, 26 September 2001, p. 16; and, Sudarsan Raghavan, "In Arab and Muslim Nations, Anti-war, Anti-american Voices Rising," Knight Ridder News Service, 24 September 2001. Back.
Note 27: Peter Baker, "After Taliban, a Power Vacuum?; Opposition Fears Political Process Trails Military Operation," Washington Post, 7 October 2001, p. 28; Kathy Gannon, "Afghanistan's Terrain a Challenge," AP Online, 18 September 2001; Ron Martz, "A daunting foe awaits U.S.; Neither Brits nor Soviets prevailed in terrain," Atlanta Journal and Constitution, 16 September 2001, p16; Molly Moore and Kamran Khan, "Who Will Rule in Kabul?", Washington Post, 5 October 2001, p. 1; Moore and Khan, "Afghanistan: A Nightmare Battlefield," Washington Post, 17 September 2001, p. 1; and, Dave Newbart, "Who will rule after Taliban?", Chicago Sun-Times, 3 October 2001, p. 13. Back.
Note 28: Dana Milbank and Richard Morin, "Public Is Unyielding In War Against Terror; 9 in 10 Back Robust Military Response," Washington Post, 29 September 2001, p. A1; and, Richard Morin and Claudia Deane, "Public Support Is Overwhelming; Poll Finds 94% Favor Bush's Ordering Strikes on Afghanistan," Washington Post, 8 October 2001, p. A5. Back.
Note 29: "Afghan opposition says 'no' to US military strike," AFP, 30 September 2001; "Allies' questions mount, as does need for their support," USA Today, 20 September 2001, p. A12; Julian Borger and Nicholas Watt, "On the brink of war: Outcome: Allies refine definition of the endgame: Threat by Pakistan forces change in tough rhetoric," The Guardian (London), 27 September 2001, p. 5; Richard S. Dunham, "Bush's Fragile Coalition," Business Week, 1 October 2001; Stephen Fidler, "US Split into Two Camps on Aims of Anti-terrorist Campaign; Coalition-building and International Support for Narrow Attack on Bin Laden Would Be Easier to Obtain," Financial Times (London), 20 September 2001; Simon Jenkins, "Mission creep and we haven't even started," The Times (London), 26 September 2001; and, Patrick E. Tyler and Jane Perlez, "World Leaders List Conditions On Cooperation," New York Times, 19 September 2001, p.1. Back.
Note 30: Tom Bowman, Mark Matthews, and Gail Gibson, "Taliban face ultimatum; Warning: Give up bin Laden or feel 'full wrath' of U.S.", Baltimore Sun, 17 September 2001, p. 1; John F. Burns, "Pakistani Team Giving Afghans An Ultimatum," New York Times, 17 September 2001; Doyle Mcmanus, "Bush Vows Firm 'Justice,' Lists Demands to Taliban; Speech: President warns Afghanistan to turn over all terrorists 'or share in their fate'," Los Angeles Times, 21 September 2001, p. 1; and, David E. Sanger, "Bush Orders Heavy Bombers near Afghans; Demands Bin Laden Now, Not Negotiations," New York Times, 20 September 2001, p. 1. Back.
Note 31: Kenneth R. Bazinet, "Bush Urges Afghans to Dump Taliban; Backs Revolt but Says U. S. Not Targeting Gov't," Daily News (New York), 26 September 2001, p. 21; Stephen Fidler, "US uncertain over trying to topple Taliban," Financial Times (London), 3 October 2001, p. 2; Ken Fireman, "Bush: Taliban Is 'Repressive'; Stops just short of vowing overthrow," Newsday (New York), 26 September 2001, p. A10; David L. Greene, "Afghans urged to defy Taliban; Powell says handover of bin Laden might keep aid flowing," Baltimore Sun, 26 September 2001, p. 1A; Greene, "Retaliation will come, Bush vows; White House memo indicates that ouster of Taliban is favored," Baltimore Sun, 30 September 2001, p.1A; Anne E. Kornblut, and Glen Johnson, "Taliban Ouster Isn't Goal, US Says Bush Eyeing Terrorists, Not 'Nation-building'," Boston Globe, 26 September 2001, p. 8; and, Alan Sipress, "U.S. Debating Whether to Overthrow Taliban; Strength of Afghan Opposition Groups Being Gauged; Decision on Support Could Come This Week," Washington Post, 24 September 2001, p. 11. Back.
Note 32: Bryan Bender, "Moving Slowly, US Aims to Topple Regime Internally US Seeks to Exploit Afghan Rifts," Boston Globe, 14 October 2001; Anne E. Kornblut and Bryan Bender, "'Time Is Running Out' Bush Shifts Focus to Taliban," Boston Globe, 7 October 2001, p. 1; and, David E. Sanger, "President Weighs Who Will Follow Taliban in Power," New York Times, 14 October 2001, p. 1. Back.
Note 33: Pamela Constable, "U.S. Hopes To Attract Moderates In Taliban; Powell Sees Them In 'New Afghanistan'," Washington Post, 17 October 2001, p. 24; and, Doyle Mcmanus and John Daniszewski, "U.S. Seeks Signs of Split in Taliban," Los Angeles Times, 3 October 2001, p.1. Back.
Note 34: Rajiv Chandrasekaran, "Winning Defectors Proves Difficult; Tribal Leader Seeking Pashtun Converts Needed U.S. Assistance," Washington Post, 7 November 2001, p. 16; and, Ahmed Rashid, "Pakistan intelligence services failing to weaken Taliban," Daily Telegraph (London), 26 October 2001, p. 8. Back.
Note 35: Quoted from Richard Boudreaux and Tyler Marshall, "'Great Game II' Has a Wealth of Players, Los Angeles Times, 2 November 2001. Rubin is the director of studies of New York University's Center on International Cooperation and author of The Fragmentation of Afghanistan State Formation and Collapse in the International System (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1995). Back.
Note 36: Peter Baker, "Defector Says Bin Laden Had Cash, Taliban In His Pocket," Washington Post, 30 November 2001, p. 1; Kathy Gannon, "Most Senior Taliban Defector Blames Hardliners for War," The Independent (London), 26 November 2001, p. 7; Zahid Hussain, "Top Taliban defectors set up splinter group," The Gazette (Montreal), 4 December 2001, p. B12; Ahmed Rashid, "Taliban leaders send families to safety," Daily Telegraph (London), 18 October 2001, p. 9; and, Ahmed Rashid, Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil, and Fundamentalism in Central Asia (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2000), pp. 103-104. Back.
Note 37: "Pakistan Key for Afghan Attack," Stratfor.com, 16 September 2001; John Daniszewski and Tyler Marshall, Victory Could Hinge On Islamabad's Spy Agency, Los Angeles Times, 30 October 2001, p. 1; Kamran Khan, "ISI gets ready for new mission in Afghanistan," The News (Pakistan), 26 October 2001; Robert Marquand and Scott Baldauf, "Will spies who know, tell the US?," Christian Science Monitor, 3 October 2001, p. 1; and, Molly Moore and Kamran Khan, "Strategy Fails to Splinter Taliban; U.S., Pakistani Efforts Not Yielding Significant Defections," Washington Post, 26 October 2001, p. 1. Back.
Note 38: Molly Moore and Kamran Khan, "Strategy Fails to Splinter Taliban; U.S., Pakistani Efforts Not Yielding Significant Defections," Washington Post, 26 October 2001, p. 1. Back.
Note 39: "Perils for Pakistan," The Times (London), 17 November 2001, p. 1; Barry Bearak, "In Pakistan, a Shaky Ally," New York Times, 2 October 2001, p.1; and, Molly Moore and Kamran Khan, "Pakistan Warns US on Afghan Role; Alliance with Anti-Taliban Forces Could Bring 'Disaster,' Official Says," Washington Post, 26 September 2001, p. 16. Back.
Note 40: Gallup International Poll on Terrorism (London: Gallup International Association, January 2002), available at:<http://www.gallup-international.com> Back.
Note 41: Matthew Engel, "Muslim allies break ranks with US: Key Muslim allies Saudi Arabia and Pakistan break ranks with US over bombing," The Guardian (London), 16 October 2001; and, David E. Sanger, "The U.S.-Pakistan Relationship Shows the First Sign of Tension," New York Times, 10 October 2001, p. B6. Back.
Note 42: Douglas Frantz, "Pakistan Ended Aid to Taliban Only Hesitantly," NYT, 8 December 2001; Norimitsu Onishi, "Pakistan Tries to Split Army from Mullahs," New York Times, 9 November 2001; and, Ahmed Rashid, "Intelligence team defied Musharraf to help Taliban Pakistan," Daily Telegraph (London), 10 October 2001, p. 9. Back.
Note 43: Edward Gargan, "Taliban Hang On; U.S. finds they are not so easy to defeat," Newsday (New York), 26 October 2001, p. A30; "Taliban Halts Opposition Advance on Key Northern Afghanistan City; Battle: Regime rushes 1,000 fighters to Mazar- i-Sharif. U.S. airstrikes shift focus to troops," Los Angeles Times, 18 October 2001, p. 1; and, Watson and Richard C. Paddock, "Opposition Blundered, Leader Says; Afghanistan: Northern Alliance botched its chance to capture a key city by counting too much on U.S. airstrikes," Los Angeles Times, 25 October 2001, p. 1. Back.
Note 44: In terms of operational capability, the United States would have been able to deploy, shake out, and advance into combat a division-equivalent of light- and medium-weight forces within a month. However, gaining reliable access to secure bases for a force of this size would have been more problematic. Also, the distances involved and the geostrategic circumstances made uncertain America's capacity to sustain such a force in intense combat and reinforce or extract it quickly, if the need arose. Back.
Note 45: Patrick Cockburn, "Opposition Force Demands Stepping up of Air Strikes," The Independent (London), 26 October 2001, p. 4; and, David Rohde, "Rebel Alliance Is Frustrated By U.S. Raids," New York Times, 29 October 2001, p. 1. Back.
Note 46: Sources on war doubts:
"Impatience and lack of information taking toll," Houston Chronicle, 31 October 2001;
Richard L. Berke and Janet Elder, "Survey Shows Doubts Stirring On Terror War," New York Times, 30 October 2001, p. 1;
Scott Canon, "Results - or lack of - show U.S. quandary," Kansas City Star, 4 November 2001, p. A1;
Patricia Cohen, "Getting It Right: Strategy Angst," New York Times, 27 October 2001, p.11;
Rupert Cornwell, "The Bombing Continues, but the Loss of Momentum Is Worrying America," The Independent (London), 27 October 2001, p. 5;
David Cracknell, "The week it all went wobbly for the West," Sunday Times (London), 4 November 2001;
Paul de la Garza, "US commando raid botched, reports say; A former top U.S. commander bolsters news accounts that the Special Operations mission went awry," St. Petersburg Times, 8 November 2001;
Audrey Gillan, "Attack on Afghanistan: Survey: Poll reveals American fears of casualties in long
war: Doubts emerge over use of ground troops," The Guardian (London), 9 November 2001, p. 4;
Michael R. Gordon, "A Month in a Difficult Battlefield: Assessing U.S. War Strategy," New York Times, 8 November 2001;
Ewen MacAskill and Richard Norton-Taylor, "Splits open in UK-US alliance," The Guardian, 9 November 2001;
Ewen MacAskill, Michael White and Luke Harding, "Wobble effect: Bombs go astray, the casualties mount and the doubts set in," The Guardian (UK), 29 October 2001, p. 3;
Molly Moore & Kamran Kahn, "Big Ground Forces Seen as Necessary to Defeat Taliban; Bombing has left militia largely in tact," Washington Post, 2 November 2001;
Richard Norton-Taylor, "Allies study options for full-scale invasion; Attack possible in spring if bombing and subversion fail," The Guardian (UK), 1 November 2001;
Robin Wright, "Experts Challenge Military, Political Tacks in Central Asia; Strategy: U.S. airstrikes are seen as damaging to political goals, and attempts to form a government are called overly ambitious," Los Angeles Times, 26 October 2001;
Robin Wright, "U.S. Predicting Fight Will Last Well Into Spring," Los Angeles Times, 22 October 2001, p. 1; and,
Wright and Doyle Mcmanus, "U.S. Shifts Gears After a Week of Setbacks; Policy: Administration acknowledges short-term problems while insisting overall plan is working," Los Angeles Times, 28 October 2001, p. 1. Back.
Note 47: Sources on reaction to bombing campaign:
"US-Arab relations 'in crisis'," BBC News, 10 November 2001;
"Jakarta increases pressure on US to end bombing," The Age, 4 November 2001;
"Carpet Bombing Is Losing US the Propaganda War and May Prove to Be Futile," editorial, The Independent (London), 2 November 2001, p. 3;
"Bombing strategy fails to lure defectors," BBC News, 30 October 2001;
Tasgola Karla Bruner, "Wounded civilians bitter toward US; Woman says she'll pray Bush dies," The Atlanta Journal and Constitution, 8 December 2001, p.11A;
Murray Campbell, "Bombing of farming village undermines U.S. credibility," The Globe & Mail, 3 November 2001, p. A4;
Rajiv Chandrasekaran, "Support Deepens For the Taliban, Refugees Report US Errors Fuel Sympathy," Washington Post, 8 November 2001, p. A1;
Karen DeYoung, "Job of Maintaining Coalition Toughens; World Response to Bombing Ranges >From Silence and Support to Public Protests," Washington Post, 10 October 2001, p. 17;
Will Englund, "Amid Afghan suffering, hard questions of war; A child soldiers on as villagers ask why America bombs them," Baltimore Sun, 20 November 2001, p. 1;
Michael Hedges, "Uneasy times; Doubts grow among Pakistanis as U.S. bombing drags on," Houston Chronicle, 8 November 2001, p.18;
Jack Kelley, "Afghan refugees say they feel targeted by US," USA Today, 12 October 2001, p. 2A;
Arthur Kent, "Afghanis crave peace and better U.S. aiming," Calgary Herald, 29 October 2001;
Arie Farnam, "Bombings hit unintended target: European opinion," Christian Science Monitor, 14 November 2001;
Bruce Finley, "Tribal Afghans skeptical of war," Denver Post, 11 November 2001;
Howard LaFranchi, "Despite talk of coalition, US mostly goes it alone," Christian Science Monitor, 29 October 2001, p. 2;
Adnan Malik, "Anti-U.S. mood hardens in bin Laden's homeland," AP, 12 October 2001;
Paul Mann and Michael A. Taverna, "Europe Wary Of Prolonged Bombing," Aviation Week & Space Technology, 22 October 2001;
Lara Marlowe, "Pressure on US to stop bombardment grows," Irish Times, 9 November 2001;
Andrew Maykuth and Sudarsan Raghavan, "Afghan civilians question U.S. bombing campaign," Knight Ridder News Service, 29 October 2001;
Charles Recknagel, "Afghanistan: Anti-U.S. Sentiment Runs High Among New Refugees," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 9 November 2001;
Alissa J. Rubin, "Bombing Alters Afghans' Views of US," LA Times, 5 November 2001;
Kevin Sullivan, "War Support Ebbs Worldwide; Sept 11 Doesn't Justify Bombing many say," Washington Post, 6 November 2001;
Doug Struck, "Rebels Say Taliban Strengthening in the West," Washington Post, 30 October 2001; and,
Tim Weiner, "Civil toll angers Afghans," New York Times, 4 December 2001. Back.
Note 48: Craig Nelson, "Concern Grows over US Strategy, Tactics in Afghanistan," Cox News Service, 29 October 2001. Back.
Note 49: The idea of international "police actions" implies the use of military force for limited goals under the auspices of an inclusive international agency and in strict accord with international law. This approach, while recognizing that the use of force is sometimes necessary, aims to minimize its negative repercussions. The idea, which rose to prominence with the formation of the United Nations, borrows from the principles of domestic law enforcement in several ways. It seeks to:
Within the framework of domestic police or law-enforcement action, "collateral" casualties and damage are strongly proscribed. In accord with this, domestic authorities may limit police resort to high-speed chases and set restrictive rules for the use of firearms — even though this may complicate law enforcement activities and add to the risks faced by police officers. Incidents such as the deadly 1993 siege of the Branch Davidian complex in Waco (Texas) and the 1985 Philadelphia police siege of the MOVE commune (a local Philadelphia radical group) are broadly considered to constitute misuses of power. (The siege of the Branch Davidians claimed 80 lives, including those of 22 children. The siege of the "MOVE" commune in Philadelphia resulted in 11 deaths, including those of four children, and the destruction of 60 houses in the surrounding neighborhood after local police used an incendiary device to force the groups' surrender.) Back.
Note 50: A good gateway to critical commentary on the war is provided by Antiwar.com<http://www.antiwar.com>, which compiles links to newspaper stories, editorials, and commentary pieces worldwide. Another collection of critical opinion pieces and articles can be found on the Foreign Policy in Focus internet page on the war at<http://www.foriegnpolicy-infocus.org/justice/> A broader range of articles and commentary on the war can be found at Spotlight on Military News and International Affairs, an internet page maintained by the Canadian Forces College,<http://www.cfc.dnd.ca/spotlight.en.html> Back.
Note 51: Christian Caryl and John Barry, "Facing a long, cold war; The White House is casting its lot with the Northern Alliance," Newsweek, 12 November 2001; Michael R. Gordon, "U.S. Adjusts Battle Plans as Strategy Goes Awry," New York Times, 9 November 2001; Alan Sipress and Vernon Loeb, "US Uncouples Military, Political Efforts. Officials decide to step up bombing without a postwar government arranged," Washington Post, 1 November 2001. Back.
Note 52: Sources on post-Taliban chaos:
"US concern at Afghan opium surge," BBC Online, 26 November 2001;
Peter Baker and John Pomfret, "A Patchwork of 20 Rival Fiefdoms," International Herald Tribune, 30 November 2001;
Scott Baldauf, "Power shift in Afghanistan," Christian Science Monitor, 10 December 2001, p. 8;
Tom Bowman and Ellen Gamerman, "Aid distribution in Afghanistan deteriorates; General lawlessness makes task harder than it was under Taliban," Baltimore Sun, 5 December 2001, p. 6.
Jason Burke, "Forbidden love spells death in lawless Kabul: Upsurge in 'honour killings' and porn as the police go on the run in post-Taliban Afghanistan," The Observer (London), 2 December 2001, p. 6;
Pamela Constable, "Two Rebel Groups Vie for Control of Key City; Rival Guerrillas Move Into Power Vacuum Left Taliban Flight From Jalalabad," Washington Post, 16 November 2001, p. A26;
Beth Daley, "Warlord Rivalries Gunfight shows peril facing many Afghans," Boston Globe, 10 January 2002;
Robyn Dixon "Generals and Defectors Alike Revel in Booty Left in Wake of the Taliban
Afghanistan," Los Angeles Times, 25 November 2001;
Stephen Farrell and Zahid Hussain, "Cities fall to chiefs with divided loyalties," The Times (London), 15 November 2001;
David Filipov, "Warlords, Bandits Rule Most Terrain," Boston Globe, 17 December 2001, p. 1;
Carlotta Gall, "Anti-Taliban Factions Clash in North," New York Times, 13 December 2001, p. 2;
Carlotta Gall with Elizabeth Becker, "As Refugees Suffer, Supplies Sit Unused Near Afghan Border," New York Times, 6 December 2001, p .1;
Paul Harris, "After the Taliban: Decent into Anarchy: Warlords bring new terrors," The Observer (London), 2 December 2001, p. 18;
Richard Lloyd Parry, "Opium farmers rejoice at defeat of the Taliban," The Independent (London), 21 November 2001;
Mark Matthews, "Stability in Kabul a tough challenge; Afghanistan's future clouded by years of war, tribal conflicts," The Baltimore Sun, 9 December 2001, p.1;
Norimitsu Onishi, "Afghan Warlords and Bandits Are Back in Business," New York Times, 28 December 2001, p.1;
Catherine Philp, "Lawless tribes vie for abandoned territory," The Times (London), 29 November 2001;
William Reeve And Raymond Whitaker, "As Kabul Awaits Return of its Exiled President, a Nation's Warlords Reclaim Their Former Fiefdoms," The Independent (UK), 15 November 2001, p. 3;
Trent Seibert "Warlords waylay aid, sources say," Denver Post 23 November 2001;
Philip Smucker, "Ageing bin Laden ally breathes defiance," Daily Telegraph (London), 26 November 2001, p.12;
Michael Steen, "Factional Fighting Erupts in Afghan North," Reuters, 3 December 2001;
Julius Strauss, "Rival groups fight for Konduz spoils," Daily Telegraph (UK), 3 December 2001;
Rone Tempest, "Opium growers rejoice at Taliban loss Poor farmers till land to plant crop that brings cash," Chicago Tribune, 2 December 2001;
Paul Watson, "Rivalries and Lawlessness Thwart Efforts to Deliver Aid to Afghans," Los Angeles Times, 5 December 2001, p. 3;
Tim Weiner, "A Bazaar Is Newly Abuzz and the Talk Is of a New Era: After the Taliban, What?", New York Times, 29 November 2001, p. B5; and
Tim Weiner, "With Taliban Gone, Opium Farmers Return to Their Only Cash Crop,"
New York Times, 26 November 2001, p. B1. Back.
Note 53: "Banditry blocking aid to Afghanistan: British report," Agence France Presse, 20 December 2001; Deborah Barfield, "Aid Organizations in Need of Help; Lawlessness, infighting hurting distribution efforts in Afghanistan," Newsday (New York), 6 January 2002, p. A35; Tom Bowman and Ellen Gamerman, "Aid distribution in Afghanistan deteriorates; General lawlessness makes task harder than it was under Taliban," Baltimore Sun, 5 December 2001, p. 6; Jane Merrick and Zoe Hughes, "Aid Failing to Reach 'Lawless' Afghanistan," Press Association, 20 December 2001; and, Watson, "Rivalries and Lawlessness Thwart Efforts to Deliver Aid to Afghans," Los Angeles Times, 5 December 2001, p. 3. Back.
Note 54: The United States may have been inadvertently drawn into this contest on 14 December when an Ismaili Hazara warlord, Sayed Jaffer, duped US aircraft into attacking Tajik positions in the town of Pul-e-Khumri in Baghlan province; Jaffer is supported by General Dostum. "Afghanistan: Peace Elusive for New Government," Stratfor, 19 December 2001, <http://www.stratfor.com> David Filipov, "Another Deadly, Errant US Attack is Alleged," Boston Globe, 24 December 2001; and, Norimitsu Onishi, "Afghan Warlords and Bandits Are Back in Business," New York Times, 28 December 2001, p. B1. Back.
Note 55: Significant armed clashes already have occurred in at least several places: the cities of Balkh, Gardez, Konduz, and Pul-i-Khumri; and in Halmand and Patia provinces. Major clashes have been averted narrowly in the cities Kandahar, Mazar-i-Sharif, and Herat.
Sources on post-Taliban conflict:
"Afghanistan: Peace Elusive for New Government," Stratfor, 19 December 2001, <http://www.stratfor.com>
Peter Baker and John Pomfret, "A Patchwork of 20 Rival Fiefdoms," International Herald Tribune, 30 November 2001;
Pamela Constable, "Two Rebel Groups Vie for Control of Key City; Rival Guerrillas Move Into Power Vacuum Left Taliban Flight From Jalalabad," Washington Post, 16 November 2001, p. A26;
Stephen Farrell and Zahid Hussain, "Cities fall to chiefs with divided loyalties," The Times (London), 15 November 2001;
Carlotta Gall, "Anti-Taliban Factions Clash in North," New York Times, 13 December 2001, p. 2;
Patrick Healy, "High Noon Coming for Dueling Afghan Warlords," Boston Globe, 29 December 2001, p. 8;
Mark Matthews, "Stability in Kabul a tough challenge; Afghanistan's future clouded by years of war, tribal conflicts," The Baltimore Sun, 9 December 2001, p.1A;
Ravi Nessman, "Mazar-e-Sharif Skirmishes Continue," AP Online, 1 January 2002;
Normitsu Onishi, "Afghan Warlords and Bandits are Back in Business," New York Times, 28 Decameter 2001, p. B1;
Catherine Philp, "Lawless tribes vie for abandoned territory," The Times (London), 29 November 2001;
William Reeve And Raymond Whitaker, "As Kabul Awaits Return of its Exiled President, a Nation's Warlords Reclaim Their Former Fiefdoms," The Independent (UK), 15 November 2001, p. 3;
Philip Smucker, "Ageing bin Laden ally breathes defiance," Daily Telegraph (London), 26 November 2001, p.12;
Scott Baldauf Staff, "Power shift in Afghanistan," Christian Science Monitor, 10 December 2001, p. 8;
Michael Steen, "Factional Fighting Erupts in Afghan North," Reuters, 3 December 2001;
Julius Strauss, "Rival groups fight for Konduz spoils," Daily Telegraph (UK), 3 December 2001;
Amy Waldman, "Debate Over U.S. Raid on Convoy Exposes Fluid Loyalties in Area Shaken by War," New York Times, 28 December 2001; and
Tim Weiner, "A Bazaar Is Newly Abuzz and the Talk Is of a New Era: After the Taliban, What?", New York Times, 29 November 2001, p. B5. Back.
Note 56: Examples are Younis Khalis in Jalalabad and Mullah Naquibullah in Kandahar. Back.
Note 57: Examples are Gul Agha Shirzai, centered in Kandahar; Haji Abdul Qadir and Mohammad Zaman in Jalalabad, and the new Afghan prime minister Hamid Karzai, whose power base is in Uruzgan province. Back.
Note 58: "Russia said to have troops in Afghanistan," United Press International, 11 October 2001; Akbar Borisov, "Putin rules out Taliban, reasserts Russian role in Afghan future," Agence France Presse, 22 October 2001; Dave Montgomery, "Russia sends massive weapons aid to rebels in Afghanistan," Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service, 9 November 2001; and, Fred Weir, "Moscow denies rumors that Russia has gone beyond intelligence, logistics support," Christian Science Monitor, 15 October 2001. Back.
Note 59: Sources on Russian deployment to Kabul:
Edward Epstein, "Hundreds of Russians have arrived in Kabul; Moscow says contingent has humanitarian aims," San Francisco Chronicle, 30 November 2001;
Robert Fox, "Putin is succeeding where Brezhnev failed; Arms and tanks in Kabul streets are evidence of Russia's influence," Sunday Telegraph (London), 25 November 2001, p. 17;
Bronwen Maddox, "War briefing: 27 November 2001," The Times (London).
Eric Margolis, "Russia Checkmated Its New Best Friend," Los Angeles Times, 28 November 2001;
Steven Mufson, "U.S. Talks to Moscow about Force in Kabul; Russia Is Urged Not to Undertake Any Abrupt Moves," Washington Post, 29 November 2001, p. A25;
Richard Owen, "Russia Gets Foot in the Afghan Door," The Times (London), 27 November 2001; and,
Sabrina Tavernise, "Russia Puts Equipment and Troops near Kabul," New York Times, 27 November 2001, p. B3. Back.
Note 60: Within the Northern Alliance Iran has lent support to Mohammad Karim Khalili, leader of the Shiite Hazara; Ismail Khan, the governor of Herat; Abdul Rashid Dostum, the Uzbek leader; and, former Afghan President Burhanuddin Rabbani. It also has supported the Cyprus group of expatriates led by the Iran-based former mujahedin leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. All were critical of the outcome of the Bonn meeting. Back.
Note 61: "Iran Cautions Against Illusion Over Settlement of Afghan Crisis," Xinhua wire report, 7 December 2001. Back.
Note 62: Edward Cody, Iran Said to Aid Afghan Commander, Washington Post, 19 January 2002; Syed Saleem Shahzad, "Iran courts Pakistan to counter US," Asia Times, 11 January 2002; and, Eric Schmitt, Iran Exerts Sway on Afghan Border, Worrying the US," New York Times, 10 January 2002. Back.
Note 63: Kathy Gannon, "New Afghan interim administration clearly favors the northern alliance," AP Worldstream, 6 December 2001. Back.
Note 64: Stephen Farrell, "British-led force to keep peace in five Afghan cities," The Times (London), 29 December 2001; and, Martin Arostegui, "No plan for Afghan disarming," United Press International, 5 January 2002. Back.
Note 65: Richard Norton-Taylor, "The fall of Kabul: Next phase: British ground forces on short notice: Soldiers may be used in frontline operations," The Guardian (London), 15 November 2001, p. 2. Back.
Note 66: Notably, a force this size for a country as large and populous as Afghanistan is closer to the standard set in the 1992-1993 Somalia peace operations than in the more recent ones in the Balkans. "Ground War Strategies, Part 5: Peacekeepers Dilemma," Stratfor, 16 November 2001,<http://www.stratfor.com> International Institute for Strategic Studies, "Peacekeeping Operations," The Military Balance 1999-2000 (London: Oxford University Press, 1999). Back.
Note 67: Carola Hoyos and Alexander Nicoll, "US and Russia Delay Troops' Arrival," Financial Times, 13 December 2001; and, Kathleen Kenna, Peacekeepers 'symbolic', says new PM," Toronto Star, 23 December 2001. Back.
Note 68: Peter Beinart, "Force Field," The New Republic, 24 December 2001; Craig Gordon and Deborah Barfield Berry, "Send Peacekeepers? 'Not Yet'," Newsday (New York), 1 December 2001, p. 3; Carola Hoyos and Alexander Nicoll, "US and Russia Delay Troops' Arrival," Financial Times, 13 December 2001; and, Alan Sipress and Peter Finn, "U.S. Says 'Not Yet' To Patrol By Allies," Washington Post, 30 November 2001, p. A1. Back.
Note 69: Jason Beattie, "Criticism Over Aid Widens US Rift," The Scotsman, 21 November 2001; Michael R. Gordon, "U.S. and Britain at Odds Over Use and Timing of Peacekeeping Troops," The New York Times, 2 December 2001, p. B4; Michael Smith and Andy McSmith, "Blair fears backlash as alliance delays aid Troops,"The Daily Telegraph (London), 20 November 2001, p. 14; Robin Wright and Marjorie Miller, "Division growing between US, allies," Los Angeles Times, 30 November 2001. Back.
Note 70: Brian Knowlton, "U.S. Military Narrows Focus in Afghanistan," International Herald Tribune, 28 November 2001. Back.
Note 71: Peter Baker and Kamran Khan, "Deal-Making Let Many Leaders of Taliban Escape," Washington Post, December 17, 2001, p. 1; Mark Landler, "Seven Taliban Officials Surrender to a Governor and Go Free," New York Times, 10 January 2002; Hilary Mackenzie, "100 pro-Taliban prisoners released," Ottawa Citizen, 14 December 2001, p. 4; and, Mark Matthews and Tom Bowman, "Taliban to surrender Kandahar; Defeated Afghans negotiate for safety of their leadership; Rebel insists on confession; U.S. demands Omar, others be captured with stronghold's fall," Baltimore Sun, 7 December 2001, p. 1. Back.
Note 72: Rory Carroll, "Ministry calls for end to US bombing: Split emerges in Kabul government over air strikes as Bush declares that there can be no escape for Bin Laden," The Guardian (London), 29 December 2001, p. 11; Patrick Healy and Elizabeth Neuffer, "US Bombing Halt Urged; Qaeda Strikes Reported," Boston Globe, 29 December 2001, p. 1; and, Tom Heneghan, "Afghans seek co-ordination of U.S. bomb raids: 'The targets are not the mass targets that they used to be, like large bases of the Taliban'," Ottawa Citizen, 9 January 2002, p. B14. Back.
Note 73: "'Confusion' over convoy attack in Afghanistan," AFP, 21 December 2001; David Filipov, "Another Deadly, Errant US Attack is Alleged," Boston Globe, 24 December 2001, p. 1; John Otis, "Airstrikes pose a deadly dilemma; Some say Afghan tribal rivalries can taint intelligence, cause errors," Houston Chronicle, 7 January 2002, p. 1; Kim Sengupta, "Americans 'duped' into attack on convoy," The Independent (London), 24 December 2001; and, Amy Waldman, "Afghan Warlord's Rivals Link Him to U.S. Attacks," New York Times, 3 January 2002, p. 15. Back.
Note 74: Patrick Healy, "High Noon Coming for Dueling Afghan Warlords," Boston Globe, 29 December 2001, p. 8. Back.
Note 75: Rory Carroll, "Bloody evidence of US blunder," The Guardian, 7 January 2002; Kim Sengupta, "Americans 'duped' into attack on convoy," The Independent (London), 24 December 2001; Anthony Shadid, "Bombed Village Is Testimony to Risks to Civilians," Boston Globe, 10 January 2002, p. 1; and, Chris Tomlinson, "Afghan village riddled with bomb craters; 155 villagers said killed," Associated Press, 3 December 2001; and, Amy Waldman, "Afghan Warlord's Rivals Link Him to U.S. Attacks," New York Times, 3 January 2002, p. 15. Back.
Note 76: "OIC Says it Demanded Probe into Killing of Prisoners in Afghanistan," AP Worldstream, 9 January 2002; Back.
Note 77: "The Roots of Anti-muslim Rage," Al-Ahram Weekly Online, 18-24 October 2001; "War on Terrorism or War on Islam?", Reuters, 26 September 2001; Abdul Wahab Bashir, "Scholars Define Terrorism, Call for Joint Action to Defend Islam," Middle East Newsfile, 11 January 2002; Faisal Bodi, "Of Course It's a War on Islam," The Guardian (London), 17 October 2001; Mamoun Fandy, "Perils of Muslim Rage," Los Angeles Times, 6 January 2002, p. 3; Warren P. Strobel and Jonathan S. Landay, "PR Firm Hired to Help US Image with Muslims," Knight Ridder Newspapers, 19 October 2001; and, "Dr. Perphes Volker: Arab and Islamic Views on the War Against Terror," CNN.com, 10 October 2001. Back.
Note 78: "Uzbekistan Gets US Military Pledge," Associated Press, 24 January 2002; Sally Buzbee, "US Expands Military Ties, Joint Exercises Worldwide," Associated Press, 15 January 2002; Ron Martz, "US Allies: Initiative Laid Foundation for Central Asian Cooperation," Atlanta Journal and Constitution, 12 January 2002, p. 9; Eric Schmitt and James Dao, "US Is Building up its Military Bases in Afghan Region," New York Times, 9 January 2002, p.1; and, Jean-Michel Stoullig, "US Consolidates its Military Presence in Central Asia," Agence France Presse, 19 January 2002. Back.
Note 79: "China Turns Up the Heat on Sino-U.S. Relations," Stratfor.com, 23 January 2002; Edward Helmore Almaty, "Anger grows as US bases spread," The Observer (London), 20 January 2002 Pg.19; William M. Arkin, "US Air Bases Forge Double-edged Sword; Deployment: Presence in Nine Countries Ringing Afghanistan Enhances Capability but Also Fuels Islamic Extremism," Los Angeles Times, 6 January 2002, p. 1; Joshua Machleder, "US General Denies Special Arrangements On Uzbek Visit," Eurasia Insight, 26 January 2002, available at: Ian Traynor, "Russia Edgy at America's Military Build-up in Region," The Guardian (London), 10 January 2002, p. 14; Syed Saleem Shahzad, "Iran takes center stage," Asia Times, 22 January 2002; and, Martin Sieff and Martin Walker, "Rivals in waiting; Washington strives for new geopolitical relationships with an evolving Russia, China," San Diego Union-Tribune, 6 January 2002, Pg. G9. Back.
Note 80: Bryan Bender, "Terror War Remaps US Troop Deployments," Boston Globe, 17 January 2002, p 1. Back.
Note 81: Mike Allen and Amy Goldstein, "Security Funding Tops New Budget; Bush's Plan Marks Return to Deficits," Washington Post, 20 January 2002; Richard W. Stevenson and Elisabeth Bumiller, "President To Seek $48 Billion More For The Military," New York Times, 24 January 2002; and, Emily Woodward, "CBO Defense Spending Projections Likely Too Low, Says Director," DefenseNews.com, 23 January 2002. Back.
Note 82: Robert Kagan and William Kristol, "A Winning Strategy: How the Bush administration changed course and won the war in Afghanistan," Weekly Standard, 26 November 2001. Back.
Note 83: Stan Crock, "A Tough-guy Approach to an 'Untidy World'," Business Week, 29 January 2001; and, Condoleezza Rice, "Promoting the National Interest," Foreign Affairs, January/February 2000. Back.
Note 84: Elisabeth Bumiller and Jane Perlez, "Bush and Top Aides Proclaim Policy of 'Ending' States That Back Terror," New York Times, 14 September 14 2001, p. 1; and, Quadrennial Defense Review Report (Washington DC: Department of Defense, September 2001), p. 13 and p. 17. Back.
Note 85: Jonathan Wright, "US outlines limited role in rebuilding," Houston Chronicle (from Reuters), 7 December 2001, p. 28. 86. Justin Huggler, "Campaign Against Terrorism: Legacy of Civilian Casualties in Ruins of Shattered Town," The Independent (London), 27 November 2001, p. 5. Back.
Note 87: Tim Weiner, "Afghans Say Civilians Are Imperiled by US," New York Times, 3 December 2001, p. B3. Doctors Without Borders, a humanitarian relief agency, has reported recovering more than 80 dead bodies in the villages east of Jalalabad. Tasgola Karla Bruner, "Wounded civilians bitter toward U.S.; Woman says she'll pray Bush dies," Atlanta Journal and Constitution, 8 December 2001, p.11A. Back.
Note 88: Bruner, "Wounded civilians bitter toward US,"Atlanta Journal and Constitution, 8 December 2001, p.11A. Back.
Note 89: The chief participants of the First World War had real and deep conflicts of interest and some of them acted more aggressively than others in pursuit of their interests. However, none bet on a war of the scale, duration, and intensity of the First World War — and none felt they could affordably extricate themselves from the conflict once it had begun. On the system dynamics shaping this type of "quagmire" see Robert Jervis, System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997), especially pp. 174-176. Back.
Note 90: "Banditry blocking aid to Afghanistan: British report," Agence France Presse, 20 December 2001. Back.
Note 91: Mark Abley "Afghans starve amid plenty: Distribution and drought are hurdles for relief workers," The Gazette (Montreal), 12 January 2002, p. B1. Back.
Note 92: Rory Carroll, "Winter closes in on families trapped by war: Rory Carroll reports from Mamorick on the plight of Afghans facing a bleak future," The Guardian, 19 December 2001, p. 5. Back.
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