Columbia International Affairs Online: Working Papers

CIAO DATE: 08/2011

Iran in the shadow of the 2009 presidential elections

Rouzbeh Parsi

April 2011

Centre for European Policy Studies

Abstract

In the past two years the Iranian domestic political scene has undergone a major upheaval where many established norms and institutional frameworks have been abandoned or seriously weakened. A new baseline and sense of normalcy has yet to be established. The ailing Iranian economy reflects the long-term structural deficiencies of the Islamic Republic and its mismanagement, combined with the damage wrought by sanctions, has made its performance and future outlook a source of great debate and concern. The subsidy reforms that have been hotly debated over the last 18 months and that are now coming into effect, after a protracted legislative battle in the Majlis, exemplify the dysfunctionalities of the Iranian system of governance and its leaders. While the reform is necessary, the manner in which it is being implemented and its actual content is vague and not very confidence-inspiring. The primary reason for the sense of upheaval and dislocation in Iran is obviously the revolutionary Green Movement that emerged as a reaction to the contested election result in June 2009. The political demand for a fair election has, in the tit-for-tat cycle of repression and street protests, since become more radical, increasingly calling some of the fundamental tenets of the Islamic Republic into question. Whether the protest movement can gain in traction and strength by linking up with other forces in Iranian society remains to be seen.