Columbia International Affairs Online: Policy Briefs

CIAO DATE: 05/2009

Trade and the Global Economic Crisis: Immediate Challenges and Long-term Threats

Jim Rollo, Peter Holmes

March 2009

Chatham House

Abstract

The collapse of world trade is threatening to create a negative feedback loop to the global economy. Some countries have seen their trade fall by 30-50% in the year to February 2009, a bigger fall than between 1929 and 1930. Annual figures for world trade in 2008 show a big fall in the fourth quarter - a trend that has been accelerating. The world's trade ministers have failed to get the Doha Development Agenda back on track, despite direct instructions from the G20 leaders to do so quickly after the November summit in Washington, DC. This failure sends a very powerful negative signal about the G20's lack of policy coordination on even bigger issues.