CIAO DATE: 07/2008
June 2008
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
U.S. democracy promotion efforts in the Middle East should focus on realistic political reform goals that correspond both to regional realities and the limited degree of actual U.S. influence. The most pressing issue facing Arab countries is the development of political systems that can contend with evolving socio-economic realities and open participation to political opposition, argues Carnegie Middle East Program Director Marina Ottaway.
An aggressive policy to promote a true redistribution of power is unlikely to succeed and could prove destabilizing at a time when the next U.S. president will already face crisis conditions in Iraq and Palestine, a defiant Iran, an unstable Lebanon, and high oil prices. In this policy brief, Democracy Promotion in the Middle East: Restoring Credibility, Ottaway argues that the United States can, however, still play a useful role in encouraging reforms.
Future U.S. democracy promotion efforts should:
• Draw a clear distinction between regime change and democracy promotion
• Set modest goals for a limited number of countries and pursue them quietly but transparently
• Consult with and listen to countries from the region before deciding which changes to encourage and support
• Affirm
the United States’ intention to talk with all political and civil
society actors—not as a sign of support or legitimacy, but as a
reflection of the need for better understanding.
Ottaway concludes:
“Although the steps advocated here represent a retreat from the flamboyant rhetoric of the recent past, they are not a retreat from the promotion of political reform, which requires not words but consistent action. Democracy promotion in the Middle East has led to no positive results, while undermining U.S. credibility across the region. Neither incumbent regimes nor reform advocates believe any longer that the United States is seeking the democratic transformation of the region. Credibility will not be restored by new rhetoric but by consistent efforts to promote attainable goals.”
Resource link: Democracy Promotion in the Middle East: Restoring Credibility [PDF] - 1.1M