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CIAO DATE: 06/04
The Emptying of Russia
On The Issues
February 2004
Nicholas Eberstadt
Abstract
Russia, whose birth rates have declined and whose mortality rates have dramatically increased in the last several decades, faces a demographic crisis. Thus far, Russian political leaders have focused on trying to increase birth rates, but a greater sense of urgency must be applied to diminish mortality rates and to respond to health threats, including HIV/AIDS.
Population trends and demographic characteristics in Russia today are severely--and adversely--altering the realm of the possible for that country and its people. Russian social conditions, economic potential, military power, and international influence are all affected, and the situation stands only to worsen.
Russia is at the brink of a steep demographic decline--a peacetime population hemorrhage framed by a collapse and a catastrophic surge, respectively, in the birth and death rates. The forces that have shaped this path of depopulation and debilitation are powerful and by now deeply rooted in Russian soil. Altering this demographic trajectory would be a formidable task under any circumstances. Unfortunately, neither Russia's political leadership nor its voting public have begun to face up to this enormous challenge.
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