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CIAO DATE: 8/01
Election Results from A to Z
On The Issues
January 2001
For more than thirty years, pollsters have been interviewing voters as they leave the polls. This year Voter News Service, a consortium representing the five major television networks, and the Los Angeles Times asked voters at selected polling places around the country to fill out a questionnaire about their attitudes and their vital statistics. The following is a snapshot of what they said, organized alphabetically by topic for simplicity.
Abortion. It remains impossible to find a prochoice or prolife majority in the United States. On election day, 23 percent of voters said they thought abortion should be legal in all cases and 13 percent, illegal in all cases. But 60 percent of voters were somewhere in between.
Blacks continue to be one of the few monolithic blocs in national politics, though some Republican governors have made inroads. On election day, 90 percent of African Americans voted for Gore. That's up from Clinton's margins among the group in 1992 and 1996. There are tentative signs that Democrats' lock on the black vote could be broken in the distant future. In an October poll by the Joint Center for Political Studies, young blacks were more independent than their parents. Thirty-six percent of eighteen-to twenty-four-year-old blacks identified themselves as Independents. A quarter of those twenty-six to thirty-five years old did. This compares to the more than seven in ten older blacks who called themselves Democrats.
Compassionate conservatism was the key to Bush's strength in 2000. Americans don't pay much attention to politics. Their first impressions of candidates are important. When George W. Bush won reelection in Texas, he (and his brother) were on the cover of major news magazines. Americans were told that they were different kinds of Republicans—more concerned about the whole. The pollsters probed this sentiment by asking whether the candidates cared about "people like me." The Democrats usually have a substantial lead on this issue, and Bill Clinton swamped George Bush Sr. and Bob Dole on this attribute. But Governor Bush was competitive with Al Gore in this area almost throughout the campaign, and it contributed to his success.
Divisions. There were deep divisions in the electorate, but not much evidence of polarization. There was no central fault line on which voters split. The electorate was not angry.
Education. The education issue was transformed in this campaign and is now—for the first time—a competitive issue. In June, Gallup and Phi Delta Kappa asked this question: "Suppose you were voting based solely on a desire to strengthen the public schools, who would you vote for?" Thirty-seven percent said Gore, and 38 percent said Bush. PSRA and Newsweek asked throughout the campaign which candidate would be better on "education and vouchers," a new question. In late October, 44 percent said Gore, 42 percent Bush. On election day, voters who said education was the most important issue in casting their vote pulled the lever for Gore, by 52 to 44 percent.
In 1996, Bob Dole received support from only 16 percent of voters who cited education as the most important issue. The difficulty of moving the voucher issue ahead nationally or in statewide campaigns can be seen from responses to this question asked by Voter News Service (VNS): "When a public school is failing, the federal government's priority should be (a) to fix the school's problems or (b) help parents pay for private schools." The commitment to the public schools is deep. Seventy-eight percent of voters opted for fixing the school's problems; just 16 percent opted for helping parents pay for private schools. Voucher reform will have to be bottom-up, not top-down.
Foreign Policy. Without hot or cold wars touching us, foreign policy concerns were not uppermost in voters' minds. Still, a near majority of voters, 47 percent, said that the military had gotten weaker under Bill Clinton, and a third said that it had stayed the same.
Gun Owners. Nearly half (48 percent) of voters said they had a gun in their home. When Gallup asked this question at other times, the figure was not this high. This gun issue was transformed in the 2000 election in part because pollsters began to ask about it in a new way. In the past, pollsters asked Americans whether they favored new regulations on guns, and majorities always said that they did. In 2000, pollsters began asking whether people favored additional gun regulation or stricter enforcement of laws on the books. People opted for stricter enforcement.
Hispanics. Census data and the exit-poll data conflict about whether Hispanic participation is increasing. In 2000, Hispanics were 5 percent of the national electorate. Bush won 34 percent of their votes. He won one-third of the Hispanic vote in New Mexico, the state with the country's largest Hispanic population. He won 50 percent in Florida and 28 percent in California. In Texas, where Hispanics were 10 percent of the electorate, Bush won 43 percent of their votes and Gore won 54 percent. In the 1998 gubernatorial contest, Hispanics were 16 percent of Texas voters, and Bush lost their votes narrowly (49 percent to Gary Mauro's 50 percent).
Ideology. As usual, moderates were the largest group of voters, 50 percent. Twenty percent of voters called themselves liberals; 29 percent, conservatives. When voters were asked what the next president's policies should be, 40 percent wanted them to be the same as President Clinton's; 46 percent, more conservative; and only 10 percent, more liberal.
Jews gave Al Gore nearly 80 percent of their votes. Hillary Clinton got about half of the Jewish vote in New York City, lower than the usual level of Democratic support among Jews there.
Liberalism. There is still some mileage in attacking big-government liberalism. Forty-three percent of voters in the VNS survey said government should do more to solve the country's problems, but 52 percent chose the response "government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals." In the Los Angeles Times exit poll, 52 percent of voters said they were more worried that "Al Gore will go too far in increasing government spending and taxes." Forty-eight percent were more concerned that "George W. Bush will go too far in reducing needed government programs." Bush could not take on big government until he had established his credentials as a compassionate conservative.
Married Voters. The gap between married voters and unmarried ones is much larger than the gender gap. In this election, the gap between these groups was 28 points. Married voters voted 53 to 44 percent for Bush; unmarried voters, 57 to 38 for Gore. Around 70 percent of Republican voters are married, compared with slightly more than 52 percent of Democratic voters. Married voters with children voted decisively for Bush.
Nader got just 2 percent of the vote nationally. If it had been a Bush-Gore contest, 47 percent of Nader's supporters said they would have voted for Gore, 21 percent for Bush, and the rest would not have voted.
Outcome. According to ABC News's Gary Langer, "Wherever Gore won, it was core Democratic voters who put him over—women, minorities, union voters, city dwellers. Where Bush won, it was Republican mainstays: white Protestants, small town and rural voters, conservative Christians, tax cutters and those concerned with moral values."
Postgraduates. Voters with a postgraduate education voted for Gore. Those with a college degree voted for Bush. A group pollsters call "some college" is one of the most important groups to watch in the future. These are people who haven't completed a college degree. Some of them are going back to school; others have a technical or vocational degree. They are upwardly mobile strivers. In this election they were the largest educational segment, roughly a third of the electorate. They voted for Clinton 48 to 40 percent in 1996. They switched to Bush this time, 51 to 45 percent.
Q. The exit pollsters asked a question about class for the first time. Four percent of voters described themselves as upper class. They voted decisively for Gore, 56 to 39 percent. Upper middle, 27 percent of the electorate, voted for Bush, 53 to 43 percent. Voters describing themselves as middle class, the largest group (46 percent of those surveyed), split their votes: 49 percent for Bush, 48 percent for Gore. Voters who described themselves as working class, 18 percent of the sample, voted narrowly for Gore, 50 to 46 percent. The lower class, 2 percent, voted for Gore decisively.
Religion. Looking at traditional denominations shows that Bush made significant inroads among a key swing group, white Catholics (about a quarter of the electorate). This year they voted 51 to 46 percent for Bush. Clinton won them in 1992 and 1996. White Catholics, like Independents, have a perfect record of voting for the winner in recent elections.
In recent years, analysts have looked more closely at religious participation than denomination. A Catholic who goes to church weekly has more in common with a Protestant or Jew who goes to church or services weekly than he or she does with a Catholic who doesn't go to church at all. Solid majorities of those who go to church weekly or more often were Bush supporters. Gore won the votes of those who go less often. Looked at the other way, half of Republican voters attend church weekly or more. Nearly half of Democrats either never go or go a few times a year.
The representation of the Religious Right was down slightly from four years ago. Fourteen percent of voters checked the box that said, "part of the conservative Christian political movement also known as the religious right." Seventeen percent described themselves that way four years ago.
Social Security is no longer the third rail of American politics. Fifty-seven percent of voters said that they supported a plan in which individuals could invest some of their Social Security taxes in the stock market. Two-thirds voted for Bush. Thirty-nine percent opposed such a plan, and this group voted overwhelmingly for Gore, 70 to 26 percent. Throughout the campaign, voters under age forty-five supported Bush's proposal. Those over forty-five were more skeptical. The key to acceptance of Bush's plan was stressing individual choice and responsibility. The opportunity for reform may be running out, as those at the front end of the baby boom group are getting more skeptical of major reforms as they age. Older voters in Florida supported Bush.
Seventy percent of voters said that they or their spouse have investments in the stock market, including mutual funds or retirement plans. They split 47 percent for Gore, 51 percent for Bush. Seven percent said they were very worried about the stock market, and 39 percent were somewhat worried. They voted for Gore. Those who weren't worried, 54 percent of the electorate, voted for Bush.
Taxes. Survey data throughout the campaign showed that the GOP's advantage on taxes was on holding them down, not cutting them. Most Americans don't believe they are ever going to see a tax cut from Washington, so proposals by any national candidate are going to be greeted with skepticism. At the state level, politicians have more credibility. The issue is still extremely important to the Republican base. On election day, 14 percent of voters said taxes was the most important issue to them in casting their vote. They voted overwhelmingly for Bush. When asked which tax cut plan they preferred, 51 percent of voters said they preferred a larger plan providing an across-the-board tax cut to most people, and 44 percent preferred a smaller plan targeting tax cuts mainly to lower- and middle-income people.
Union households, 26 percent of the electorate, up slightly from 1996, voted for Gore, 59 to 37 percent. Nearly four in ten voters in New York were union members; they voted for Hillary. She narrowly carried nonunion voters as well. In Michigan, 44 percent were union households. They voted 62 to 33 for Gore. Nonunion household there voted for Bush. In Pennsylvania, 31 percent of voters were from union households. They voted for Gore, too.
VNS. In 1967 CBS News conducted what is believed to be the first systematic exit poll of voters. In 1990, CBS, NBC, ABC, and CNN conducted a joint exit poll. The entity was called Voter Research and Surveys. In 1996, Fox News and the National Election Service, the operation that counts actual votes, joined the consortium, and it is now known as Voter News Service. For a seat at the table, each of the five participating networks pays on average more than $1 million a year to VNS.
Women and men cast votes for different presidents. The gender gap in this election was the largest it has ever been: 22 points. Women voted for Gore over Bush by 11 points. Men voted for Bush over Gore by 11 points. This is the first time since 1980 that majorities of each sex chose a different candidate. The gap exists among subgroups of women and men. White women, for example, split their votes, but white men voted 60 to 36 for Bush. Suburban women favored Gore by 8; suburban men, Bush by 15. Working women favored Gore by 19 points; those who don't work preferred Bush by 8. Working mothers with children favored Gore by 22 points, while stay-at-home moms favored Bush by 24.
X Factor. The X factor in this election was Bill Clinton. The split we've seen since early 1998 between Clinton's job as president and his personal rating was once again evident in the exit poll. Fifty-seven percent approved of the way he is handling his job; only 36 percent had a favorable impression of him as a person. Twenty-nine percent of voters said the Clinton administration would be more remembered for his leadership; 68 percent, for his scandals. Thirty-nine percent of Arkansas voters said they would like to see Bill Clinton run for the Senate there; 59 percent would not.
How important were the Clinton scandals? The exit poll provides two answers. Forty-four percent said the Clinton scandals were very or somewhat important to their vote. They voted for Bush. Fifty-four percent said they were not too important or not important at all. They voted for Gore. In another question, 70 percent of voters said Clinton was not a factor in their vote. Ten percent said their vote was to support Clinton; 18 percent, to oppose him.
Young people voted for Gore. He won their votes by a narrow margin, 48 to 46 percent. But he won this group by a narrower margin than Clinton did (53 to 34 percent). Bush won narrowly among thirty to forty-four year olds and among forty-five to fifty-nine year olds. Gore won older voters narrowly, by 51 to 47 percent.
Zeal. Seventeen percent said they would be excited if Gore won, and 21 percent felt that way about Bush. At the other end of the spectrum, 24 percent of voters said they would be scared if Gore won, and 26 percent felt that way about Bush.
Karlyn H. Bowman is a resident fellow at AEI. This article is adapted from her remarks at the AEI Election Watch briefing on November 9.
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