Columbia International Affairs Online: Policy Briefs

CIAO DATE: 03/2014

Polish hard power: Investing in the military as Europe cuts back

Andrew A. Michta

December 2013

American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research

Abstract

The following National Security Outlook is the eighth in AEI’s Hard Power series—a project of the Marilyn Ware Center for Security Studies that examines the state of the defense capabilities of America’s allies and security partners.[1] In it, Andrew Michta outlines the case of Poland, which he notes is determined both to expand its indigenous defense industrial capabilities and to increase overall defense spending. As numerous accounts of NATO defense trends over the past two decades elucidate, Poland’s decision to increase defense spending is far more the exception than the rule when it comes to America’s other major allies. This is largely driven, according to Michta, by Poland’s desire to fend as much as it can for itself in light of what it sees as Russian revanchism and Washington’s growing disengagement from Europe in defense matters. Not surprisingly, this has led to a shift in Warsaw’s security agenda since Poland joined NATO in 1999. Despite Poland being one NATO ally that has responded positively to Washington’s calls for increasing defense capacities, today Warsaw increasingly feels compelled to look to its own resources and to neighboring capitals as potential security partners. Whether this drift in transatlantic ties is permanent or inevitable remains an open question, and will to a large extent depend on how US security relations with Europe develop in the coming years.