Columbia International Affairs Online: Policy Briefs

CIAO DATE: 05/2010

Inflation Scare: Crazy but Real

John H. Makin

July 2009

American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research

Abstract

The recent steps by the Federal Reserve to preempt deflation have--ironically and unexpectedly--prompted a surge in inflation fears both inside the United States and abroad, especially in China. Specifically, the Fed's measures to go beyond the stimulus inherent in a zero percent federal funds rate by purchasing Treasury and mortgage securities has conjured visions--especially in the eyes of major buyers of Treasury securities, China foremost--of massive money printing to underwrite trillions of dollars of additional government borrowing at low interest rates. As markets have shown, if that were the Fed's intention--which it decidedly is not--the effort would fail because excessive money printing--creating a money supply larger than the quantity of money demanded--would push up interest rates as inflation expectations rose.