CIAO DATE: 10/03

The Washington Quarterly

Fall 2003, Volume 26, Number 4

Provocations

A grand bargain with North Korea . . . a space race with China . . . will terrorists use WMD?

• Toward a Grand Bargain with North Korea (PDF format, 12 pages, 76.1 KB)
  Michael O'Hanlon and Mike Mochizuki

  Coupling carrots that actually entice with tough demands to address North Korea’s nuclear program, reduce its conventional forces, and reform its outdated economic system can begin to transform one of the world’s most troubled and dangerous regions. Here’s how.

• Averting a Sino-U.S. Space Race (PDF format, 18 pages, 91.4 KB)
  William C. Martel and Toshi Yoshihara

  The United States and China are on the threshold of a space race that could radically influence international security, yet the incentives to cooperate remain woefully limited. Given the stakes involved, both sides should seek to avert, or at least to manage, this looming competition.

• Putting WMD Terrorism into Perspective (PDF format, 14 pages, 83.8 KB)
  John Parachini

  So-called new terrorists may not always escalate to unconventional weapons. Inordinate attention on the comparatively unique challenges of WMD terrorism draws scarce resources and focus away from the more basic but essential activities to stop terrorism in the first place.

  Will Iran's Regime Change Next?

  An in-depth look at politics, terrorism, nuclear weapons, relations with Iraq, and myths about Iran.

• Continuous Regime Change from Within (PDF format, 16 pages, 83.2 KB)
  Ali M. Ansari

  Policymakers have tended to oversimplify an otherwise complex Iranian polity and reduced irritating intricacies to apparent irrelevancy. A close look reveals that there is little indication that the democratic tendency introduced during the Constitutional Revolution in 1906 has lost its way.

• Understanding Iran: Getting Past Stereotypes and Mythology (PDF format, 14 pages, 77.4 KB)
  Mahmood Sariolghalam

  Postrevolutionary generations of Iranian leaders will be more balanced, focusing on Iran’s national interests. Washington needs to look beyond 2010, when groups that will compete to advance Iran’s national interests, economic prosperity, and political openness will manage the country.

• Iran: Confronting Terrorism (PDF format, 14 pages, 72 KB)
  Gary Sick

  Today, Iran’s promotion of violence seems to be increasingly focused on support for radical anti-Israeli groups in Palestine rather than hostage-taking or targeted assassinations. This shift calls for a different and more creative set of responses by the United States.

• Debating Iran's Nuclear Aspirations (PDF format, 16 pages, 86.6 KB)
  Shahram Chubin and Robert S. Litwak

  External pressure is a necessary but insufficient strategy to ensure that Iran is complying with its nonproliferation commitments. A complementary effort is needed to influence nuclear politics within Iran by generating a real debate among the Iranian public.

• Iran-Iraq Relations after Saddam (PDF format, 16 pages, 83.3 KB)
  Anoushiravan Ehteshami

  Iran’s leaders will struggle to balance the adventurous tendencies in Iran that desire to take advantage of the confusion in Iraq with the cautious instincts of the majority who wish to avoid danger.

  The UN beyond Iraq

  What the UN can, and should, do next.

• Improving Nonproliferation Enforcement (PDF format, 14 pages, 71.8 KB)
  Richard Butler

  The former UNSCOM executive chairman argues that the nonproliferation treaty system is unlikely to remain intact without reliable enforcement, which only the Security Council can provide. To do so successfully, the special case of WMD must be separated from the UN’s politics as usual.

• The Illusion of UN Security Council Reform (PDF format, 16 pages, 90.4 KB)
  Thomas G. Weiss

  Can changing Security Council membership or procedures improve its credibility? With one exception, similar efforts since the council’s inception in 1945 have repeatedly proved implausible; today, the uncontested power of the United States makes them largely irrelevant.

• Combating Terrorism (PDF format, 14 pages, 78.5 KB)
  Chantal de Jonge Oudraat

  The Security Council has made critical contributions to the international campaign against terrorism and can do more if five important problems are addressed. U.S. leadership, however, will be required for the UN to become a stronger force against terrorism.

• United to Fight HIV/AIDS? (PDF format, 18 pages, 114.8 KB)
  J. Stephen Morrison and Todd Summers

  Two critical challenges stand in the way of U.S. efforts to lead the international response to HIV/AIDS successfully; the UN is uniquely qualified to help find solutions for each.

• Picking Up the Peaces: The UN’s Evolving Postconflict Roles (PDF format, 16 pages, 87.3 KB)
  William J. Durch

  The UN is uniquely equipped with the legitimacy, experience, coordinating ability, and logistics mechanisms to work in postconflict settings, potentially as a partner with regional organizations as their operational capacities evolve.

  Charles Cook on Washington
  Will 2004 look more like the Republican sweep of 2002 or the partisan split of 2000?

• Sweep or Split? (PDF format, 8 pages, 57.9 KB)
  Charles E. Cook, Jr.

  Is George W. Bush a shoo-in for reelection, leading a sweep for Republican candidates on all levels, or is the November 2000 election—as an even split—a better barometer? The 2004 elections are surrounded more by uncertainty than anything else.