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The National Interest
Europe Challenged
by Robert Tucker
. . . At present, the states that make up the EU possess resources sufficient to rival the United States. In what period of time they might succeed in converting that potential power into usable power is anyone’s guess. One need not be a Euroskeptic to see the process taking at least several decades. If demographic trends unfold as they are now projected, that day may never come. In any event, the eu’s challenge is above all dependent upon forging a centralized decision-making body having the authority to act on behalf of Europe in matters of foreign policy, and this would, of course, mean the surrender by the separate states of control over foreign policy. The European response to Iraq has shown that the eu is still a long way from achieving so revolutionary a change, and, with its expansion to include ten new member states, that day is even more distant. In its absence, American domination of the continent may be expected to continue into an indefinite future, particularly if the Bush Administration’s National Security Strategy prevails. The NSS is designed to widen still further the immense gap in military spending and capability that exists today between the United States and any other nation or feasible combination of nations. If the end of the American era is to come in the foreseeable future, it will therefore have to result largely from internal causes. . . .