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CIAO DATE: 08/04
July/August 2004
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A Global Power Shift in the Making by James F. Hoge, Jr.
Global power shifts happen rarely and are even less often peaceful. Washington must take heed: Asia is rising fast, with its growing economic power translating into political and military strength. The West must adapt — or be left behind.
Seeing the Forest by Eugene Linden, Thomas Lovejoy and J. Daniel Phillips
Experience has shown that piecemeal efforts to protect tropical forests cannot do the job. Conservationists must rethink their approach, implementing conservation on a continental scale, and fast.
[500-word preview]Strengthening African Leadership by Robert I. Rotberg
Poor leadership has been the depressing norm in Africa for decades. But as a bold new initiative by a group of past and present African leaders takes off, good governance may finally come to the continent.
[500-word preview]Essays
Beyond Kyoto by John Browne
Global warming is real and needs to be addressed now. Rather than bash or mourn the defunct Kyoto Protocol, we should start taking the small steps to reduce carbon dioxide emissions today that can make a big difference down the road. The private sector already understands this, and its efforts will be crucial in improving fossil fuel efficiency and developing alternative sources of energy. To harness business potential, however, governments in the developed world must create incentives, improve scientific research, and forge international partnerships.
The Myth Behind China’s Miracle by George J. Gilboy
Washington need not worry about China’s economic boom, much less respond with protectionism. Although China controls more of the world’s exports than ever before, its high–return high–tech industries are dominated by foreign companies. And Chinese firms will not displace them any time soon: Beijing’s one–party politics have bred a timid business culture that prevents domestic firms from developing key technologies and keeps them dependent on the West.
[500-word preview]History and the Hyperpower by Eliot A. Cohen
Whether or not the United States today should be called an empire is a semantic game. The important point is that it resembles previous empires enough to make the search for lessons of history worthwhile. Overwhelming dominance has always invited hostility. U.S. leaders thus must learn the arts of imperial management and diplomacy, exercising power with a bland smile rather than boastful words.
[500-word preview]A Republican Foreign Policy by Chuck Hagel
The war on terrorism must top the U.S. foreign policy agenda—but it cannot be waged without also attending to the broader crisis in the developing world. Recognizing this, a Republican foreign policy should be guided by seven principles that seek to encourage stability, expand democracy, and strengthen key alliances. Above all, Washington must recognize that U.S. leadership depends as much on principle as it does on the exercise of power.
[500-word preview]Saving Iraq From Its Oil by Nancy Birdsall and Arvind Subramanian
Of all the pressing questions facing Iraq today, perhaps the most important in the long run is what to do with the country’s oil. Vast wealth from natural resources can often be a curse, not a blessing, corrupting a nation's political and economic institutions and impeding the growth of democracy. There is only one way for Iraq to resist the oil curse: by handing over the proceeds directly to the Iraqi people.
[500-word preview]Containing Iraq: Sanctions Worked by George A. Lopez and David Cortright
The failure to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq has prompted much handwringing over the problems with prewar intelligence. Too little attention has been paid, however, to the flip slide of the picture: that the much–maligned UN–enforced sanctions regime actually worked. Contrary to what critics have said, we now know that containment helped destroy Saddam Hussein’s war machine and his capacity to produce weapons.
[500-word preview]Building Entrepreneurial Economies by Carl J. Schramm
The “Washington consensus” approach to development—which urges other countries to emulate American capitalism—misses one vital ingredient: the role that entrepreneurs play. Jump–starting growth in the developing world will require an understanding of the American entrepreneurial system, which involves four sectors.
[500-word preview]China’s Hidden Democratic Legacy by Orville Schell
China is finding it ever more difficult to straddle the divide between its anachronistic political system and its booming market economy. A reconsideration of the country’s political future must come soon. Fortunately, China can find guidance in its own history: a previous generation of reformers who sought to balance the imperatives of modernity with the best aspects of Chinese tradition.
[500-word preview]Reviews & Responses
Berlin to Baghdad: The Pitfalls of Hiring Enemy Intelligence by Timothy Naftali
Washington wants to hire ex–Baathists to help rebuild Iraq. The CIA’s experience using ex–Nazis to run West Germany’s intelligence service should give it pause.
First Principals by Walter Russell Mead
Ron Chernow’s new biography examines Alexander Hamilton’s role in the founding of the American republic and his contribution to its conflictual political culture.
The Unsettled West by Joshua Kurlantzick
Three new books detail Xinjiang’s long history of oppression. As they show, Beijing’s rule there has always been harsh—but never so bad as in the last few years.
The Fire Last Time by Scott Snyder
Going Critical offers an insiders’ view of the deal struck with North Korea in 1994 and a core lesson for the Bush administration: there’s no substitute for negotiation.
Warlords as Stakeholders by Kimberly Zisk Marten
Abnormal Demographics by Mark Lawrence Schrad
Understanding Saddam by John Mueller