CIAO DATE: 01/2015
Volume: 37, Issue: 3
Fall 2014
North Korea Heading for the Abyss (PDF)
Bruce Klingner
For some Asian experts, Kim Jong-un’s December 2013 purge of his uncle and éminence grise, Jang Song-taek, changed everything. Hopes that the young, Western-educated North Korean leader would initiate long-predicted reform were dashed, replaced by rising fears of instability in the nuclear-armed nation. For other analysts, the purge merely affirmed everything that had seemed so obvious since the coronation of Kim petit-fils, namely that he would maintain the policies of his predecessors, though in a more erratic and riskier manner. Regardless of who was right, what are the policy implications going forward?
The United States and South Korea: Who Does What if the North Fails? (PDF)
Kent Harrington, Bennett Ramberg
After several years of uncertainty about Kim Jong-un and his grip on power, analysis of North Korea has settled back into well-worn patterns. In Washington, Seoul, and elsewhere, mainstream commentary seems to have shelved concerns about the North’s stability, returning instead to questions that represent hearty perennials for Pyongyang watchers: Is Kim prepared to open the North’s moribund economy to Chinese-style reform, or is the latest dynastic offspring simply intent on the survival of his draconian family regime? Do the North’s rhetoric and intermittent provocations threaten conflict, or are they simply more of the same theatrics out of an isolated elite? Notwithstanding its long history of broken pledges, is a nuclear deal possible—or are the North’s weapons permanently in its arsenal?
The Key to the North Korean Targeted Sanctions Puzzle (PDF)
John S. Park
Examining financial sanctions, now the dominant counterproliferation policy instrument, from the target’s perspective reveals that sanctions have had the unintended net effect of actually strengthening North Korean procurement networks through state trading companies.
Breaking the North Korean Nuclear Deadlock: a Global Action Plan (PDF)
Duk-min Yun, Wooseon Choi
Washington and Beijing seem to be experiencing fatigue with North Korea, creating an expectation that Seoul should take the initiative. Two South Korean authors argue it is not too late for Seoul to try a bold and creative initiative to pursue a new framework for denuclearization.
Drawing Red Lines Right (PDF)
Bruno Tertrais
In the past two years, ‘‘red lines'' have risked becoming punch lines, having been invoked so frequently in places like Iran, Syria, and Ukraine. Yet, they remain powerful policy instruments if used properly. Here's how...
Revitalizing the Rebalance: How to Keep U.S. Focus on Asia (PDF)
Michael J. Green, Zack Cooper
The perception in Asia is that the United States and its rebalance to the region have lost some steam. Why? And what can be done to reinvigorate the rebalance and keep U.S. focus on Asia?
Less is More: The Future of the U.S. Military in the Persian Gulf (PDF)
Joshua Rovner, Caitlin Talmadge
It's almost conventional wisdom that a precipitous U.S. military drawdown is creating a security vacuum and political breakdown in the Gulf, but that is wrong. History, a favorable situation in the Gulf, and analysis demonstrate that the United States can protect its core interest in the free flow of oil without having to commit a large and enduring naval or ground presence.
The Fool's Errand for a Perfect Deal with Iran (PDF)
Sven-Eric Fikenscher, Robert J. Reardon
Washington is in danger of losing a good deal in the pursuit of a perfect but unachievable one. The P5+1 should set aside the effort to craft an all-at-once comprehensive bargain and instead adopt a strategy of negotiating incremental agreements with Iran.
Has India Peaked? (PDF)
John R. Schmidt
On the heels of its stunning spring 2014 electoral victory, the BJP government could have the last best chance India will ever have to enact labor law reform. If it fails to seize the moment, it is hard to see how India will lift the majority of its population out of poverty, and it very well could have already economically peaked.
Modi's Unexpected Boost to India-U.S. Relations (PDF)
Harsh V. Pant
New Prime Minister Narendra Modi's rise has both fundamentally transformed Indian domestic politics and renewed efforts in Delhi as well as Washington to strengthen ties. Ironically, the man once banned from traveling to the United States may already have imparted a sorely needed new dynamic to bilateral relations.
Beyond Putin? Nationalism and Xenophobia in Russian Public Opinion (PDF)
Theodore P. Gerber
Is Russian public support for Putin's policies in Crimea and Ukraine fleeting or a deeper tendency toward nationalism and xenophobia? Original public opinion survey results here reveal an uncertain, complex, and heterogeneous society far from a unified, coherent nationalist worldview.
Is Brazil a 'Responsible Stakeholder' or a Naysayer? (PDF)
Esther D. Brimmer
Will aspiring liberal democracies help maintain the current liberal international order?1 This current order rests on promoting and maintaining five pillars: peace and security; the market economy, especially international trade and investment; human rights and humanitarian action; sustainable development; and global spaces. Each of these areas is large and complex, and the emergence of new powers is likely to alter that system but not destabilize it.
Between Aspiration and Reality: Indonesian Foreign Policy After the 2014 Elections (PDF)
Prashanth Parameswaran
In translating Indonesia’s expanding foreign policy aspirations into reality, new President Joko Widodo will confront major challenges ranging from nagging resource constraints at home to incomplete political transitions and rising nationalism among Indonesia’s neighbors abroad.