CIAO DATE: 02/2015
2012
Table of Contents (PDF)
Türkiye'nin Ortadoğu Politikası (PDF)
Turkey’s Middle East Policy 2012
Turkish foreign policy toward the Middle East has confronted with more and novel security challenges in 2012. The problematic issues related to Arab revolutions of 2011 have already had negative repercussions for Ankara. As a result of diverging policy choices toward the Arab revolutions, these conflicting issues caused more strained relations between Turkey and its neighbors in the region. Regional actors divided over how to respond to political deadlocks in the Middle East. While Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have sided together, Iran, Syria and the central government of Iraq have made their policies jointly. This very division between the regional actors has increased the security risks within the Middle East. These two camps have particularly conflicting policy agendas and as a result, they have become part of a “proxy war” in Syria which constitutes the biggest security threat to the whole region. Despite the deteriorating situation in Syria and its own tense political environment domestically, Turkey, has continued to strengthen its economic relations with the Middle Eastern capitals except Damascus. It was partly a result of this policy that Turkey’s export toward the Middle East increased significantly.
Irak 2012 (PDF)
Iraq 2012
Termination of the US military presence in Iraq at the end of 2011, bring some problems for Iraq on military, domestic politics and economic area. Just a few months later US military withdrawal, escalating political tension began to delimitate coalition government built on a fragile structure and at the same time has led to emergence of some struggles with in the country. Discourses or expectations of many Iraqi leaders that Iraq will be saved from the problems which he faced and even new independent era will start with the year of 2012 have been turned upside down because of violence and political instability occurring at the beginning of this new independent era. Bombings, political and military strife between ethnic groups, struggle between national government and the Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and particularly worsening of Iraq-Turkey relations forced Baghdad government to waste large part of its energy on these issues. In addition to this, natural resources having strategic importance for economic developments and Iraq’s future stand out as a shaping factor of Iraq’s foreign and domestic politics.
İran 2012 (PDF)
Iran 2012
The Arab Spring has resulted in a shift in the nature of Iran’s regional foreign policy from a traditional ‘resistance’ strategy to a ‘new engagement’ approach. The new approach aims to strike a balance between strengthening cooperation with states in the region such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia and containing threats through maintaining traditional relations with ideological movements. In addition to the new strategic engagement policy, however, the nuclear issue has been constrained Iran’s real economic and foreign policy capacity during 2012. The deepening economic crisis and rising inflation rates have also negatively affect Iran’s domestic affairs and caused a new fragmentation among the conservative block. The legislative election held on March 2012 was the best example to understand this separation in Iranian domestic politics. In this article, it is analysed Iranian bilateral and regional relations by particularly focusing on its position regarding Arab Spring, nuclear issue and regional developments during 2012.
Filistin 2012 (PDF)
Palestine 2012 Fundamental issues such as the conflict between Hamas and Israel and the rift between Hamas and Fatah, shaped the Palestinian politics in 2012 as in previous years. Israel opted for military intervention against Hamas once more with the Operation Pillar of Defense. The outcome of negotiations that took place throughout 2012 between Hamas and Fatah over the disagreements between the two sides was far from being satisfactory. The impact of Arab Spring, on the other hand, opened new avenues for a set of new developments in Palestinian politics. Egypt, Turkey and Qatar have formed a new alliance as supportive forces in both Palestinian domestic and foreign policy. In addition to all these, the Palestinian authority’s international attempts through United Nations started with the UNESCO membership in 2011 and ended up with obtaining the UN observatory non-membership status in 2012. It was underlined that upgrade in Palestinian UN status would open new avenues for Israel-Palestine relations in the long run. Apart from all these, Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails protested the severe prison conditions by hunger strikes.
Lübnan 2012 (PDF)
Lebanon 2012
In 2012, Lebanon has been visibly affected by the ongoing crisis and civil war in Syria. The war in Syria has severely contributed to the escalation of tension in the country and had detrimental impact upon the sectarian divide, elevating the risk of massive clashes. As a result, some sporadic conflicts took place in different places in Lebanon, raising the tension. In addition, Hezbollah has become more powerful and influential in the political scene; this attracted greater attention from the domestic and international actors. The bilateral relations between Turkey and Lebanon in 2012 have remained low profile, being limited to the concerns over the Syrian crisis. Turkey has attempted to take measures to ensure that the crisis in Syria would not have spillover effect in Lebanon; however, these attempts have barely worked.
İsrail 2012 (PDF)
Israel 2012
The year 2012 was a critical year for Israel because of the political change in Egypt. Israeli relations with Turkey were also affected as the tension experienced in the region on social change shaken trust among neighbors. Tel Aviv holds that the uprisings in the Arab world signal continuous collapse of authoritarian regimes and thus inevitably pave the way for the rise of Islamic movements. Since the beginning of the uprisings in the Middle East, Israeli decision-makers remained on alert. Israel was directed to find new actors to resolve its loneliness in the region. These actors later appeared as Greece, Cyprus, Azerbaijan and Armenia. Their common feature is that all of these countries’ relations with Turkey are somehow problematic. For Israel developing relationships with these countries also means cornering Turkey. On the other hand, there were also differences of opinion between the U.S. and Israel emerged in 2012 that should be noted. Indeed, 2012 saw that the seemingly unshakable alliance between the U.S. and Israel could in fact be in trouble following the two’s differing responses to Iran’s nuclear power ambitions. The latter issue showed that profound differences of opinion may well surface in the near future.
Suudi Arabistan 2012 (PDF)
Saudi Arabia 2012
The wave of change of the Arab Spring, penetrating almost the entire Arab geography in 2011, has continued to be the main agenda of international relations of the region in 2012 as well. While Saudi Arabia, as a crucial regional actor, generally has maintained its opposite stance against the Arab Uprisings, it has had different position on the Syrian crisis and become the principle player due to its policy towards civil war in this country. On the other hand, the Saudi government has pursued a more active foreign policy orientation due to vulnerability of its regime’s security and stability at home and its weakening influence in the region that the Arab Spring brought about. Particularly, deprived of a powerful Arab ally owing to Arab Spring, Saudi Arabia has attempted to turn the Gulf Cooperation Council into the “Gulf Union” and to increase the members of the organization. At the same time, pursuing containment policy against Iran, Saudi Arabia has intensified its strategic cooperation with Turkey in military, economic and political areas.
Mısır 2012 (PDF)
Egypt 2012
Egypt has been experiencing a painful transition to civilian rule in the aftermath of the people’s revolution that took place in the early days of 2011. In the post-revolution period, political actors of the old regime feared that they will lose their privileged position they held in the past. Indeed, 2012 has been the year for a new set of social and political actors to enter the political life of post-revolutionary Egypt in which they had to deal with heavy resistance from the actors of the old regime. The presidential election in June resulted in the victory of Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate Muhammad Morsi who had to confront with a number of attacks from the opposition as part of the power struggle between new and old actors within the state. Morsi’s announcement of the constitutional decree in November was a huge blow for the old regime actors who were even more furious when the new constitution was approved with a landslide yes vote in the referendum in December. Despite the heavy opposition to his rule Muhammad Morsi’s first six months in power was sound but also fragile. In this article Egypt’s transition period from military rule to civil administration in 2012 IS thoroughly analyzed. In addition, the foreign policy of Egypt under both Supreme Council of the Armed Forces and Muhammad Mursi is investigated.
Suriye 2012 (PDF)
Syria 2012
By the end of 2011, the involvement of international actors in the Syrian crisis become more visible with the bloody civil war causing catastrophic outcomes such as deadly massacres and intensifying clashes. These regional and international initiatives aiming to stop Bassar Assad have continued in 2012 as well. The involvement of all relevant actors in solving the crisis became a necessary prerequisite. To better understand the situation in Syria, the efforts and initiatives to end the war will be at the center of this study. By doing so, a detailed analysis of the civil war in Syria will be investigated. Various developments with regards to the conflict in Syria are being covered on a chronological basis. Some of these issues have been intentionally left to the Turkey-Syria relations title as they are very much intertwined. Finally, political, social and economic aspects of the Syrian civil war have also been thoroughly examined in lights of statistical parameters.
Ürdün 2012
Jordan 2012
Jordan is one of the countries where violence was relatively low but protests still continue during the Arab Spring. The Gulf Monarchies and the Western countries do not favor a regime change as a result of the Arab Spring in Jordan. They, therefore, support Jordanian regime in every angle. Despite this support, Jordanians were eager in their anti-regime protests. The demonstrations against the regime of King Abdallah were especially visible in 2012. One of the most important problems of Jordan in 2012 was the question of refugees who escaped from the civil war in Syria. According to official figures, the number of the refugees has scaled up to 200.000, but informal records claim that there are 400.000 Syrian refugees in Jordan. Fulfilling the economic needs of Syrian refugees is a huge burden on Jordan’s economy. Foreign-dependent economic structure of Jordan is still a vital problem for the regime. The attempt to establish a nuclear power station which aimed to reduce the foreign dependency was surprisingly stopped after the nuclear explosion in Fukishima. The events that took place before the general elections of January 2013, were one of the most important processes of the politics of Jordan in 2012. Jordanian regime has accelerated the political reforms after the Arab Spring. In this regard, the assignment of the prime minister in consultation with the parliament, increasing the number of members, and revision of the electoral system were decided by changing the election law. However, the Islamic Action Front, the most powerful opposition party, declared that they would boycott the elections, because the new regime based on the new election law allegedly aimed to strengthen the regime supporters and did not ensure democratic participation.
Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri 2012 (PDF)
United Arab Emirates 2012
In 2012, many things important happened in United Arab Emirates (UAE). There were voices against government and that voices were repressed harshly. Generally, UAE claimed that these movements are connected with Muslim Brotherhood. Because they were afraid of Muslim Brotherhood’s affect on their opponents. In addition foreign policy was affected by internal affairs. There had been some troubles with Iran and Egypt. Problems with Iran were about sovereignty claims on Ebu Musa island and problems with Egypt were about Muslim Brotherhood. UAE has very rich underground sources (oil, gas etc.) and because of this, foreign policy of UAE is based on dialog, openness and peace. In this context, a lot of bilateral agreements and economical cooperations were implemented. In this respect, UAE is an important centre of interest for international capital, financial economy and technology investments. Maybe this economical power made repressing voices against government possible.
Yemen 2012 (PDF)
Yemen 2012
Following the bloody clashes triggered by Arab Spring, Yemen President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had ruled for 33 years, signed the peace plan proposed and prepared by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). According to the plan, it was decided to carry out an election for a new president. Despite conflicts and issues in certain areas on the agreed date, the election was held. As a result of the general elections, Abd Rabbuh Mansur al-Hadi, the only candidate and the vice president of Saleh for many years, was elected as the new president for the 2-yeartransition period. However, signing the deal did not bring an end to the conflicts around the Arab Spring. Clashes continued between the government forces and local tribes in Sanaa, Shiites and Salafi groups in northern Yemen and Al-Qaeda and the government forces supported by USA in the south. In addition to these conflicts, many assassination attempts, kidnapping cases, pipeline sabotages occurred. The Yemeni government, fighting with economic problems, also witnessed power struggle between al-Hadi and other political actors close to Saleh. During this period, close relationships were established with the USA and Saudi Arabia on the bases of cooperation in fight against the al- Qaeda and economic assistance while the relations between Iran and Yemen were tense occasionally. Yemen experienced a power vacuum in a certain level, an economic downturn, continuing clashes in 2012.
Kuveyt 2012 (PDF)
Kuwait 2012
In this study, predominantly domestic and external political events and economic developments in Kuwait during the year 2012 are examined. Added to this, Kuwait-Turkey relations will be scrutinized. Kuwait’s domestic policy has been very active during the year and two elections were held within the same year. In terms of Kuwait’s foreign policy, especially the civil war in Syria and the unrest between Iran and the Gulf countries, together with Western countries occurred in the context of security and energy came to the forefront. It is without no doubt that the Arab Spring has continued to affect Kuwait’s domestic and foreign policy as it was in the last year. Also, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the activities of the Arab Union set the agenda of the country.
Umman 2012 (PDF)
Oman 2012
2012 was a significant year due to the initial step taken towards a
liberal democratic regime with the first time organized city council
elections in the history of Oman. Oman, seeking a solution for basic
problems such as a rapid growth in population decrease in production
and unemployment with an exchange from foreign manpower to
local labor force economic diversification and privatization policies,
continues her effort in progressing good relations with the global and
regional power by enhancing a proactive foreign policy in the region.
Katar 2012 (PDF)
Qatar 2012
In paralel with the foreign policy stance during 2011, Qatar have kept its positive and supportive position towards Arab peoples’ democratic demands and claims. This situation helps Qatar improve its economic and political relations with Turkey and Saudi Arabia as well as Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, countries where people’s revolutions have taken place successfully. However, the growing support of Qatar on these movements caused deterioriation for its existing relations with the countries such as Syria, Iran and Iraq. These three countries consider the people movements in question as a crucial threat for their domestic stability at home. In addition to changing patterns on its relations with the regional actors, Qatar has presently succeeded to become crucial player in the emerging Middle East. Even though it has limited power resources, geography and small population, Doha was able to present itself after the “Arab spring” as a powerful actor that should be taken into consideration by regional and international players while making their regional policies. While it is hardly possible to predict how long the new regional and international importance of Qatar would continue, its leadership seems to take nearly all risks to benefit from Doha’s new role that it long waited following the Arab spring. In this context, there has occured new opportunities for cooperation between Qatar and new Islamic-inspired powers in the Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, which once were long perceived as an important threat to regional security and stability by both western countries and its autocratic allies in the region.
Bahreyn 2012 (PDF)
Bahrain 2012
Domestic and foreign policy developments in Bahrain in 2012 have largely been shaped by the political atmosphere which was tensed and apprehended by the Arab Spring events during 2011. Domestic political tensions between the Sunni rule and the country’s Shia majority and the demonstrations, which had already been a taking place in Bahrain even before the Arab Spring, have continued during 2012 with fresh waves and impetus that 2011 Shia Uprising has caused. The social, political and economic problems that were exacerbated by the latest events remained unsolved in 2012 despite the king and the government’s efforts. Due to the government’s reluctance and capabilities to meet the Shia groups’ call for fundamental political reforms, a divided social and political structure and related street protests have continued in the country throughout the year. These developments have not only affected Shia and Sunnis, but they also had consequences for the migrant workers and groups that the latter’s problems have deteriorated in recent years.
Ortadoğu'da Dinsel ve Mezhepsel Çatışmalarda Ulemanın Rolü Üzerine Eleştirel Bir Yaklaşım (PDF)
Critical Evaluation of the Role of Ulema in Religious and Sectarian Confl icts in the Middle East
Conflict is one of the inevitable aspects of human life, and a number of reasons can be the source of this. In most cases, the real cause of conflict can be concealed and another other reason can be presented as the real one. Religious or sectarian conflict is widely used term, but it is a matter of dispute whether such conflicts described as religious or sectarian are really religious or sectarian, or such term is used as a means of persuading the followers of the religion or sect of nonreligious or non-sectarian purpose. This article critically evaluates the historical role of religious scholars or religious leaders in the social and political conflicts in the Middle East. Although it is difficult to claim that historically they all played the same role, it is possible to say that the majority of scholars accepted the role of actively fanning the flames in the conflicts. What is the underlying cause of the attitude of scholars towards social and political conflicts. The author claims that as a result of the attitudes of the religious scholars and leaders, social and political conflicts became theological conflicts; and although it is easy to solve social and political conflicts, it is almost impossible to solve theological ones.
Türkiye'nin İsrail ile İlişkilerinin Değişen Dinamikleri: Bir 'Güvenlikleştirme' Analizi (PDF)
The Changing Dynamics of Turkey’s Relations with Israel: An Analysis of ‘Securitization’
The present study seeks to answer the following questions: How was it possible that a state such as Turkey, which had until then pursued a low-profile policy in the Middle East, has able to forge a bold strategic alliance with the state of Israel in the 1990s? Conversely then, why was the unparalleled and positive nature of relations in the 1990s replaced by a hostile and toxic nature in the first decade of the 2000s? How can this difference in the relations between the 1990s and 2000s be explained? To answer such questions, this article uses the Copenhagen School’s theory of securitization. This approach not only helps to illustrate the characteristics of different periods in Turkish-Israeli relations, it also helps to highlight the specificity of the politics of civilmilitary relations in foreign policy making.
Fransa'da İslamofobik Söylemin Ana Akımlaşması ve Arap Baharı'nın Etkisi (PDF)
Effect of Arab Spring as Islamophobic Discourse Becomes Mainstream in France
With its consequences, direct and indirect effects, the Arab Spring became a matter of debate not only in the Middle East and North Africa but also in the West. It has a formative effect which has an impact on discourses as well as policies towards the Middle East. In this article, this impact will be discussed in the case of France. The rise of Islamophobic discourses in media and politics, enemization of the concept of “Islamism” and visibility problem of Muslim identity will be discussed in the light of some visual media materials and social researches. Thus, the effect of the Arab Spring on Islamophobic discourse of French politics, media and society will be focused on.
Arap Baharı'nın İran-Suudi Arabistan İlişkileri Üzerindeki Etkisi (PDF)
The Repercussion of the Arap Spring on the Iran-Saudi Arabia Relations
The uprisings against authoritarian regimes by deprived people who were insulated from economic, political and social areas in the North Africa and the Middle East that have abruptly reached to success in a number of Arab countries and brought about a new change wave which will have crucial results on regional balances. The change of rules that took place in Tunusia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen and protests against regimes in some countries like Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Syria have effectivelly occupied foreign policy agendas of both important regional powers and that of great powers. The aforementioned developments which shaked the regional equilibrium have led to several significant outcomes on foreign and regional policies of Saudi Arabia and Iran. From this point of view, the principal aim of this article is to investigate to what extent repercussions of the change wave on bilateral relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the two dominant powers of the Persian Gulf and two crucial actors of the Middle East.