CIAO DATE: 05/2011
Volume: 63, Issue: 2
Spring/Summer 2010
Generational Change and the Future of U.S. - Russian Relations
Jeffrey Mankoff
While post-Cold War generation Americans are more sober in assessing Russia, the next Russian generation (those under 35) is in some ways more problematic. Russian youth are much more entrepreneurial and politically engaged than their elders, but also more skeptical of the US and more comfortable with intolerant nationalism. The Kremlin is also reinforcing some of the more worrying trends among Russian youths. There is no going back to the Cold War, but the coming of the new generation does not portend smooth sailing, unless current officials can figure out ways to fundamentally alter the nature of a relationship still dominated by mutual distrust.
Russian Dilemmas in a Multipolar World (PDF)
Fyodor Lukyanov
The notion of multipolarity has shaped Russian foreign policy horizon since mid-90s, when it became clear that Russian integration into Western system as an equal partner was not an option. The idea of a multipolar world promoted by then foreign minister Yevgeni Primakov was reaction to American dominance in international affairs, a way to counterbalance rising U.S. unilateralism, but did not contain any serious strategy. That rhetoric revived 2003, when Russia decided to join France and Germany in their opposition to Iraq war, but the main purpose of Moscow was to achieve a breakthrough in relationship with the European Union, which didn’t happen. By the end of this decade emerging multipolarity and relative decline of the U.S. power turned into most frequently discussed international issue worldwide. Russian interest in that configuration started to evolve into real strategy of foreign policy diversification towards new centers of power like China, India, Brazil and Iran.
Russia, Ukraine, and Central Europe: The Return of Geopolitics (PDF)
F. Stephen Larrabee
This article focuses on the changing security dynamics in Central Europe and the Western periphery of the post-Soviet space. Section I examines Russia’s resurgence and the challenges it poses. Section II focuses on Ukraine’s transition while section III discusses the impact on Central and Eastern Europe. Section IV analyzes the changing context of NATO enlargement. The final section discusses the implications of these trends for US policy.
Ukraine's Defense Engagement with the United States (PDF)
Gary D. Espinas
European stability and prosperity are best served by a Ukraine that is democratic, secure in its borders, and integrated into both European and Euro-Atlantic institutions; the United States must therefore persist in its efforts to assist Ukraine on the path of democratic reforms that it has chosen for itself.
Russia and Europe's Mutual Energy Dependence (PDF)
Christophe-Alexandre Paillard
The European Union has its roots in energy, given that the ECSC and EURATOM treaties were two of the three first texts on which the European alliance was founded. The European Union is almost 50% dependent on imports for its energy consumption and it will be 70% in about 15 years. A large part of its oil and gas imports will come increasingly from Russia. However, the last crises over oil & gas deliveries from Russia to Ukraine have again triggered virulent criticism about Russian energy strategies and its abilities at being a safe supplier. This article describes how these conflicts have in fact an impact on European energy policies, which are now a mixing of panic, bilateral alliances and distrust. In fact, Europe should worry less about the exercise of a geopolitical strategy and more about Russia’s ability at reforming itself and being the right supplier for Europe's 21st century.
Is Russia Cursed by Oil? (PDF)
Daniel Treisman
Russia is often presented as a classic example of the so-called “Resource Curse”-the argument that natural resource wealth tends to undermine democracy. Given high oil prices, some observers see the country as virtually condemned to authoritarian government for the foreseeable future. Reexamining various data, I show that such fears are exaggerated.
The Global Expansion of Russa's Energy Giants (PDF)
Nina Poussenkova
The article analyzes the past, the present and the future of the global expansion of Russian oil and gas companies. During Socialism, geopolitical considerations were the main driver of overseas activities of the Soviet energy enterprises. During the 90s, given the maturing resource base of the oil sector, the going-abroad efforts of privatized Russian oil companies, mainly LUKOIL, in the upstream were aimed at acquiring promising assets in countries with lower production costs. Oilmen were also trying to get a foothold in the European downstream to improve their global competitiveness. Gazprom was expanding its presence in Europe which was essential for the company that suffered from non-payments in Russia. At the same time, LUKOIL and Gazprom helped Russia to maintain its influence over the former USSR republics. During the 2000s, with the growing étatisation of the energy sector in Russia, economic aspects of oil and gas companies’ global expansion became interlinked with geopolitical motives and the desire to reestablish the country as an energy power.
Why Russia is Not South Korea (PDF)
Sergei Guriev, Ekaterina Zhuravskaya
The recent growth performance and the short-term forecasts for the Russian economy strikingly remind the economic performance of South Korea 11 years earlier. Given that South Korea is an archetypical success story of economic development, do these data imply that Russia is on the right track and will close the gap with advanced economics in 10-20 years? We believe that Russia’s long-term perspectives are unlikely to be as bright.
Russia's Financial Crisis: Economic Setbacks and Policy Responses (PDF)
Padma Desai
The Russian policymakers had enough financial resources ($600 billion with the Central Bank of Russia) to manage the cost of a bailout package of $200 billion at 13 percent of GDP. It was used to support the declining ruble toward the end of 2008 and early 2009, to provide some funding to the oligarchs so that they could repay their hard currency loans, and above all to provide cash to the banks. With improving oil prices, the situation has improved for the budget, and the CBR reserves have moved up to $400 billion from a low $300 billion last December. But unemployment has been edging up and inflation still remains high at annual 7 percent. It limits the ability of the policymakers to mount another stimulus for helping the unemployed. The main problem however consists in diversifying the economy away from commodities (among them oil and natural gas) and dealing with massive corruption in the system. Russian President Medvedev described Russia as a "corrupt, raw-material based economy." That will be the challenge facing the policy makers in the years ahead.
Freedom of Expression without Freedom of the Press (PDF)
Maria Lipman
If the Kremlin should not be held directly responsible for ordering murders against journalists, it certainly bears responsibility for the atmosphere of lawlessness that reigns in Russia. Today’s Kremlin doesn’t mind free and critical voices as long as they remain politically irrelevant and have no impact on decision-making. In other words, Russia has freedom of expression, but no press freedom if the latter is understood as one of the elements in an institutionalized democratic polity. Media may cover political news, but news can’t become a political event.
A Balanced Assessment of Russian Civil Society (PDF)
Debra Javeline, Sarah Lindemann-Komarova
Assessments of Russia’s civil society development have been almost universally negative, yet the assessments are usually based on very limited and unsystematic evidence. Missing from the discussion are new developments such as institutions and competitive funding for NGOs and other civic groups that suggest there is a foundation in Russia to support citizen participation in governance. Future analysis should investigate, systematically and objectively, the positive and negative impacts of these developments.
U.S.-Russian Relations in an Age of American Triumphalism - An Interview with Stephen F. Cohen (PDF)
Stephen F. Cohen is Professor of Russian Studies and History at New York University and Professor of Politics Emeritus at Princeton University. His books include Bukharin and the Bolshevik Revolution; Rethinking the Soviet Experience; Failed Crusade: America and the Tragedy of Post-Communist Russia; and, most recently, Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War. His forthcoming book, The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag After Stalin, will be published in August.
The View from Moscow - An Interview with Sergey Ryabkov (PDF)
Sergei Ryabkov is the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. He has served the Ministry of Foreign Affairs since 1982 in Moscow and abroad. He has been head of the OSCE Unit of the Department of European Cooperation, minister counsellor of the Russian Embassy in the USA, and director of the Department of European Cooperation. Mr. Ryabkov was named Deputy Minister in 2008. As part of his duties, he chairs the Policy Steering Group and Arms Control and International Security Working Group under the U.S.–Russia Bilateral Presidential Commission set up by President’s Obama and Medvedev.
The Russian Soldier Today (PDF)
Iva Savic
The first decade of the post-Cold War era left the Russian military neglected, impoverished and, to a large extent, structurally and technologically obsolete. During the presidency of Vladimir Putin, however, the Russian leadership became determined to regain the country’s military prowess. In 2003, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov declared the end of the era when the military had to struggle to survive. Concurrently, the Russian Armed Forces began reforms aimed at creating a smaller, highly mobile, modern professional army that would be equipped to deal with regional wars and insurgencies, while larger threats would be deterred by the nuclear arsenal.1 The security budget rose from RUB 214 billion in 2000 to RUB 1017 billion in 2008, 400 new types of armament and hardware were introduced, reorganization of command and control was initiated, and the professionalization of the once all-conscript army commenced.2
Re-Examining Russian Energy Power (PDF)
Michael Broache
Russian Energy Power and Foreign Relations: Implications for Conflict and Cooperation Jeronim Perović, Robert W. Orttung, Andreas Wenger (eds.) (London: Taylor & Francis, 2009), 254 pages. The conventional wisdom concerning Russian energy policy is overwhelmingly alarmist: Russia’s role as a major oil and gas producer has strengthened the Russian state vis-à-vis domestic civil society, undermined democratization and market reforms, and emboldened Russia to pursue a more aggressive foreign policy. Russian Energy Power and Foreign Relations, a compilation of essays edited by Jerome Perovic, Robert W. Orttung, and Andreas Wenger, confronts this conventional wisdom by presenting a nuanced account of recent developments in Russian energy policy and their implications for global energy security and Russian foreign relations.
Unwrapping Russian Foreign Policy (PDF)
Thomas J.R. Kent
Russian Foreign Policy: The Return of Great Power Politics Jeffrey Mankoff (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield, 2009), 359 pages. A typical outsider’s concept of Russian foreign policy might envisage Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin seated comfortably in the Kremlin, deciding what they want to accomplish, then skillfully selecting from an array of policy tools readily at their command: the military and security services, Gazprom’s collections department, state-controlled media (i.e. drivers of public opinion), and state businesses ready to ship arms and build nuclear power plants wherever needed.
Constructing a Post-Communist Economic Order (PDF)
David Szakonyi
Economic Liberalism and Its Rivals: The Formation of International Institutions among the Post-Soviet States Keith Darden (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009), 351 pages. In addition to being the largest country outside of the trading bloc, Russia has also recently achieved another undesirable distinction in the annals of the World Trade Organization (WTO): the longest candidacy bid at over sixteen years, surpassing China’s previous record. Russian leaders have notably fluctuated in their desire for entry and their demands along the WTO accession journey, leading to serious uncertainty about where the entire process is headed.1 Rising interest in regional organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Eurasian Economic Community may even herald the decline of the supremacy of Western institutions, at least among many states in Eurasia.2 Deciphering how post-Soviet states determine their policies in the international arena is a treacherous affair, but an important one for the economic order.
What Can Be Done with Documents (PDF)
Maksim Hanukai
Inside the Stalin Archives: Discovering the New Russia Jonathan Brent (New York: Atlas & Co., 2008), 304 pages. In January 1992, Jonathan Brent, a newly appointed editor at Yale University Press, touched down at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo Airport carrying ample supplies of Jack Daniel’s whiskey, salami, biscuits, chocolates in the shape of the Statue of Liberty, and cartons of Winston cigarettes. There he was met by Jeffrey Burds, a burly historian who would help him secure publishing contracts with several Soviet archives for the Annals of Communism project at Yale. “Jeff’s energy was hectic, explosive, and filled with urgency, as if at any moment the tragic and beautiful events unfolding in this country would blaze into an epiphany,”1 Brent writes of his guide. In the days and years that followed, Brent himself would discover the “tragic and beautiful” nature of the new Russia, recording his impressions of the many trips he would take to the country in his gripping memoir.
Further Reading (PDF)
Aiko Shimizu, Allon Bar, Christopher Jenkins, Emily Ingram, James Wesley Jeffers, Karin Bennett, Kelsey L. Campbell, Matthew Rae, Matthew Schaaf, Rob Grabow, Setti-Semhal Petros
The New Cold War: The Future of Russia and the Threat to the West Edward Lucas (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008), 215 pages. The murder of Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya and the state seizure of Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s petroleum company Yukos were but a few signals for Edward Lucas that Putin’s Russia was backsliding into an authoritarian state. His book examines how accusations of human rights violations leveled against Putin’s government and its presumed threat to its citizens is of more than a normative concern to the West. Rather, these developments, characterized as the New Cold War, are an indication that Russia also become a peril to the West.