CIAO DATE: 11/2008
Volume: 9, Issue: 1
Winter / Spring 2008
Letter from the Editor: Transatlantic Solidarity Starts at Home
America’s power is waning, at least temporarily. Under the next President, the country will have a diminished ability to shape a stable international order and maintain global prosperity. Will that trend create an opening for Europe to emerge with a larger global presence? Or is it liable to cause losses all around?
Transatlantic Convergence Passenger Data Questions
Michael Chertoff
A curious notion has emerged about how the United States has tried to navigate the seas of global security since the September 11 terrorist attacks. It depicts Washington as charting a solitary course characterized by premises, principles, and policies which diverge dramatically from those of other nations – notably its European allies.
Cyber War I: Estonia Attacked from Russia
Kertu Ruus
Suddenly, the lights go out. Communication lines fall silent. Internet connections are lost. People venturing into the congested streets discover that banks are closed, ATMs are malfunctioning, traffic lights are jammed. Radio and TV stations cannot broadcast. The airports and train stations are shut down. Food production halts, and the water supply starts rapidly diminishing as pumps stop working. Looters are on the rampage; panic grips the public; the police cannot maintain order.
This grim picture is not the opening scene of a Hollywood fantasy, but the beginning of a cyber attack, as described by Sami Saydjari, president of Professionals for Cyber Defense, to a Congressional homeland defense subcommittee in April 2007. In vivid terms, he described how a superpower can be reduced to third-world status by a cyber take-down of a nation’s electronic infrastructure. The defense expert called his description “a plausible scenario” – and one for which the United States is unprepared. Even if military computer systems are usually protected against outside interference, most civilian electronic systems remain vulnerable to a massive assault that enjoyed the sponsorship of a state.
NATO Caveats Can Be Made To Work Better for the Alliance
Robert E. Hunter
The NATO allies are now being required to face the possibility that they may not prevail in Afghanistan. Facing new challenges from Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters, the Afghan government and the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) are by no means certain of success. Equally at risk are economic, political, and social developments to give the average Afghan a sense that supporting the government in Kabul and its ISAF allies is the best bet for the long haul. Militarily, NATO commanders have made it clear that they need more troops - at least two more combat brigades - and more helicopters. But they also need greater flexibility in the use of those forces that are available, and limitations here are posing difficulties at least as troubling as shortfalls in numbers.
Faraway Afghanistan Brings Home Tensions Among Allies
James Leathers
Fearing a stalemate in Afghanistan that would be tantamount to defeat for NATO, the Bush administration is browbeating the European allies to step up their military role.
The Declining Dollar – Symptom and Symbol of U.S. Financial Negligence
J. Paul Horne
Looking beyond the current turmoil in global capital markets, that long-running subject – what outlook for the dollar? – seems likely to involve further decline in its value against the euro and other major currencies. There is scant evidence of willingness on the part of U.S. political and monetary leaders, today’s or tomorrow’s, to do what is necessary to make the dollar fundamentally stronger. Indeed, American policy-makers have powerful reasons to let the dollar depreciate over time, shifting the cost to the rest of the world of U.S. international borrowing to cover shortcomings in economic policies pursued by Washington.
Sense and Nonsense About European Security Policy
Michael Brenner
For Europe to punch its weight in global affairs, the leaders of the European Union need to think more lucidly and more realistically about what their actual security priorities should be. Tough obstacles persist, but clarity could help.
“Shock Therapy” Worked for the Economies of the Post-Communist Countries
Anders Åslund
A magisterial survey documenting events in the post-Soviet nations proves that market economics have taken hold and produced good results. But political transitions are faltering on democracy. The author of this landmark study sums up his findings.
A Flat Playing Field Can Spread Western Innovation
Michael C. Maibach
The world has modernized thanks to waves of Western inventions, and the next wave must be a regulatory revolution to ensure that discoveries spread horizontally as far and fast as possible. It is an agenda for the newly formed Transatlantic Economic Council.
The Real Questions About Sovereign Wealth Funds: A Roundtable Discussion
Already the buzz this year in financial circles, sovereign wealth funds have been initially welcomed in the United States (and to a lesser degree in Europe) as white knights whose capital investments have helped rescue troubled financial institutions and other companies stricken by the credit-market crisis. But these funds, even as they are currently sought after by financially-bleeding companies, could easily become controversial with public opinion and regulators in the United States and European countries because of their potential political dimensions. The very fact of their emergence is a symptom of profound new shifts in the global financial order. To head off potential jingoist reactions against the proposed buy-ins by these new investors, there is a need to probe a set of questions about how these funds work and about whether rules can be reached – by mutual agreement – to ensure that the funds prove compatible with global capital movements.
Turkey’s Islamic Party Sees Advantage in EU Bid
F. Stephen Larrabee
In a shift in Turkey’s domestic political dynamics, the key advocate of EU membership has turned out to be the ruling Islamic party. The strongly secularist Turkish army is wary of EU demands. This shift is part of Turkey's current domestic turbulence.
Misreading Berlin... in the Lead into the Iraq War
Simon Serfaty
Germans have developed a new mindset, especially about military force, and they are offended, not swayed, by attempts to play on their nation's guilt for World War II. How badly Bush and Blair blundered in misunderstanding this new Germany is described by Serfaty in this excerpt from his new book, Architects of Delusion.
Kosovo: It IS a Real Geopolitical Precedent
David Young
Supporters of independence for Kosovo because of its painful recent history ignore the fact that Western indifference permitted a cycle of terrorism and repression. That is the real lesson.
Poland's New Government Seeks Solidarity, Not Provocation
European Affairs traces the path that has brought a new, more statesmanlike tone to Polish foreign policy. As both Warsaw (and Prague) proceed with plans to accept the U.S. missile defense system, Sikorski sets the initiative in broader NATO context.
Rafe Pomerance, Armond Cohen
The Arctic is leading a global meltdown and Greenland is the worst hot spot – partly because it collects “black carbon” as tiny soot particles that intensify the heat. Emissions of this sort could be quickly and effectively reversed if collective action is taken now.
An Emergency Coordination Center Is Needed for a New Frontier
George B. Newton
As global warming unfreezes the Arctic, these literally uncharted waters are going to be plied by shipping, but there is no collective network to coordinate emergency responses on land and sea.
Four “Poverty Traps” Are Part of Conundrum for Foreign Aid
Jim Kolbe
Muddled thinking is dangerous for international development. For one thing, cost benefit arguments neglect the high price exacted by failed states. For another, as noted in an important new book, The Bottom Billion, some countries are trapped by special circumstances that need special remedies.
Richard Descoings, a reform-minded educator who heads the prestigious Sciences-Po, says in an interview that French universities are boxed into mediocrity by state control and state under-funding. Outside Britain, European universities need more control over their finances to compete in a globalized market.
Washington: City and Symbol – or Neither?
Kenneth Ringle
Grand Avenues: The Story of the French Visionary Who Designed Washington, D.C. By Scott W. Berg
The blueprint for the U.S. capital called for a unique cityscape reflecting the states of the nation. It was a baroque design, studded with monuments. But the original vision is hard to see under accumulated layers of bad urbanization, exploitive development and bombastic memorial-building.
Fugitive Serbian War Criminals and the West
François Clemenceau
Peace and Punishment: Secret Wars of Politics and International Justice By Florence Hartmann
The two main Serbian war criminals have been protected by the diplomatic goals of the main powers, which were courting Serbia. Europeans wanted to see Belgrade join the EU; Russia wanted to preserve a Slavic bloc; the U.S. deferred to Moscow. Justice lost out, according to this book, yet to be translated into English.
Politically Incorrect Tales of the EU Bureaucracy
Michael Mosettig
Life of a European Mandarin
By Derk-Jan Eppink
The European Commission functions like many governments: like cabinet ministers, commissions come and go with their ideas. But the civil servants stay, keeping control of the process. If it weren’t true, this amusing and edifying excursion might be a satire.
Writer Ryszard Kapuscinski: An Optimist in the Heart of Darkness
Tomasz Zalewski
Polish journalist Ryszard Kapuscinski was an exception in gaining an international following for his writings – in translation, of course. He succeeded by writing directly about the people in oppressed, poor continents. His humanity stemmed partly from his origins in Soviet-era Poland.