CIAO DATE: 02/2011
Volume: 9, Issue: 4
Fall 2010
EU-Russia Energy Diplomacy: 2010 and Beyond? (PDF)
Irena Dimitrova
There are three major players in the arena of European energy security: the European Union, its individual member states, and Russia, which is currently the EU’s most important energy supplier.1 Other concerned parties include candidates for EU membership and those nations that aspire to candidacy. Countries through which Russian gas must travel en route to markets in Western Europe, possible gas suppliers from the Caucasus and Central Asia, and the United States also have significant roles to play. This essay focuses on researching the nature of the European Union’s energy relations with Russia in terms of natural gas supply, from the perspective of the member states.
China's Strategic Growth Sustainment: Accidental Leader? (PDF)
Zdzislaw Sliwa
One country survived the recent economic turmoil and became stronger economically. China’s economy kept growing and her GDP in 2009 reached 8,7 % despite the crisis.1 The role of China in the world economy was clearly visible in 2009 not only because of her economic growth. In April 2009 Chinese importance in the world was underlined during the G-20 Summit in London as the first face-to-face meeting between Presidents Barrack Obama and Hu Jintao was the most important event of the summit. Mr. Obama said that bilateral relations between the countries have become extremely constructive, … and strong ties are not only important for citizens in both countries but also help to set the stage for how the world deals with new challenges.2
Xu Zhengyuan
Alongside the rapid development of globalization, the post-Cold War era has witnessed the expansion of various forms of regional cooperation in many areas of the world. Regionalism, therefore—both in reference to the construction of a regional identity (“soft regionalism”) and the building of regional cooperative institutions (“hard regionalism”) 1—has become a salient ongoing process worldwide, involving the participation of both states and non-state actors as a response to globalization. Different from the “old regionalism” that arose immediately after World War II, which underscored the economic and security dimensions of regional integration and the dominant role of external power or even hegemony in it, the “new regionalism” that is increasingly widespread nowadays emphasizes spontaneous regional cooperation in a variety of areas, including politics, economy, security, culture, etc.2
Modeling Defense Acquisition Strategy (PDF)
Venelin Georgiev
Defense acquisition policy is one of the most important aspects of defense policy, and requires an efficient and effective strategy for implementation. As a universal method, modeling provides an opportunity for many different approaches to defense acquisition strategies to be developed and analyzed in order to select the best or most appropriate method, depending on a nation’s current economic conditions. Variables that can be included in modeling the process of defense acquisition strategy include specific defense acquisition instrumental policies and their parameters; typical strategies currently in use in different defense acquisition domains; and strategic management tools, such as the strategic card (SC) and the balanced scorecard (BSC). In the end, the options for defense acquisition strategy that are developed through modeling are assessed based on the extent to which they appear likely to develop the set of desired military capabilities and implement the defense missions and tasks that have been set forth in the nation’s defense policy, and remain in line with the level of ambition, budget resource restrictions, and level of associated risk.
The Russo-Chinese Strategic Partnership: Oil and Gas Dimensions (PDF)
Jean-Marie Holtzinger
This essay seeks to determine the nature of the strategic energy partnership between the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China, focusing on oil and gas. In particular, it will attempt to answer the question of whether there is a real and valid strategic energy partnership between the two countries. Many joint declarations, statements, and treaties on the strategic partnership have offered evidence of the good relationship between the two countries. These have been reinforced in recent years through cooperation in different fields—economy, military, and energy—underpinned by an apparently common shared vision of the world. As far as the energy partnership is concerned, many advances have been achieved in the oil and gas sectors. This results from a complementary association of both actors that gives priority to market forces, since Russia is a major oil and gas producer and China, because of its growing economy, is a major consumer. However, this strategic energy partnership is limited in scope, and is very fragile for many reasons: the Russian domestic market is growing; Europe is a more attractive partner for Russian energy exports; Russia has fears regarding China’s rapid expansion in economic and geopolitical power; China’s tendency to engage in active diplomacy in all directions; and the influence of Japan and South Korea on the Asian market. All factors indicate that there is at present an energy partnership between the two countries, but that it seems to be more strategic for Russia than for China.
Security Implications of Neutrality: Switzerland in the Partnership for Peace Framework (PDF)
Marjorie Andrey
This article presents the security policy implications of neutrality for Switzerland in the terms of international promotion of peace and crisis management. It focuses particularly on the country’s engagement within NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PfP) framework, considering the achievements and the challenges of Switzerland’s singular choices in foreign and security policy. We will see that permanent neutrality and domestic factors in Switzerland have a huge impact on the nation’s involvement in the Euro-Atlantic partnership and in the construction of European security.2 It will also reflect the differences between civilian and military contributions to international crisis management. Finally, the essay will consider the prospects for Swiss international engagement, and propose some conditions for a relevant Swiss foreign and security policy.
Stanislaw Zajas
The turn of the twenty-first century is a period of very important and decisive changes in international politics, particularly in the security arena, both in relation to the global system and to individual countries and societies. This dynamic process of change is above all connected with the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the expansion of security and economic development, especially in Europe. Many countries’ achievement of independence on democratic principles, combined with the significant enlargement of NATO and the European Union, has increased the sense of integration and safety as perceived by many nations in the region. The division of the world into two opposing blocs disappeared, and the notion of the Cold War is now primarily considered only in historical perspective. However, these changes do not necessarily mean that we live in the world without threats. Although the probability of the outbreak of an armed conflict on the global scale is very low, new security threats have emerged. The unsettling quality of these threats lies in their asymmetric character, which means that it is very often difficult to identify a particular enemy, rendering them hard to combat. However, it should be stressed that, although these threats may originate in remote areas of the globe, they may also have a local impact through the increasingly omnipresent character of the worldwide communication networks that lie at the root of globalization.
QJ 2011 Themes (PDF)
Connections accepts manuscripts in the range of 2,000 to 5,000 words, written in a lucid style for a target audience of informed defense and security affairs practitioners and academics. All manuscripts should be submitted to the Connections editorial office electronically at PfPCpublications@marshallcenter.org. They should feature the author’s name, current institutional affiliation, and a provisional title at the top of the first page, and should include footnotes where necessary. Preferred themes for the 2011 publication year include: Cyber Deterrence and Cyber Warfare Migration and Demographics Crisis Management and Disaster Response Stability and Reconstruction Operations Trends in Civil-Military Relations Building Integrity Enduring Partnership Challenges Innovative Approaches to Defense Education Dealing with Armed Non-State Groups Defense Management in Austerity For questions on footnotes and references, please refer to the Chicago Manual of Style, at www.chicagomanualofstyle.org/ tools_citationguide.html. Unsolicited manuscripts are accepted on a rolling basis at the discretion of the PfPC Editorial Board.
QJ Fall 2010 Editorial Board and Content (PDF)
Sean S. Costigan Executive Editor Jean Callaghan Managing Editor Gediminas Dubauskas Lithuanian Military Academy Peter Foot Geneva Centre for Security Policy Piotr Gawliczek National Defence University, Warsaw Hans-Joachim Giessmann Berghof Conflict Research Centre, Berlin Fred Labarre Royal Military College of Canada (Kingston) Todor Tagarev Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Michael Schmitt George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies Elena Kovalova George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies Leila Alieva Center for National and International Studies, Baku David Mussington National Railroad Passenger Corporation (Amtrak)
QJ Fall 2010 Conclusions (PDF)
Most analyses of the current threat environment indicate that the character of security threats will change in the next twenty years. However, the possibility of a large-scale conflict on the global scale in the near future will remain low. The main security threats will be posed by international terrorism, uncontrolled proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, outbreaks of local conflicts stemming from religious and ethnic antagonisms or economic and social inequalities, the failure of certain states, as well as international organized crime. These threats will most likely occur in remote areas of the globe, outside the territories of Poland, NATO, or the European Union. In order to prevent these threats and resolve the crisis situations that they may generate, international organizations—such as the UN, OSCE, or NATO—will still conduct their usual operations, although probably in a more intense way. Forces established on the basis of international organizations’ resolutions will have an international character and will carry out crisis response operations. In order to participate in such operations, the Allied armed forces (including the national militaries of the member states) must possess already prepared units characterized by high mobility, short time readiness to operations, high efficiency, and the capability to conduct long-term military operations in remote operational areas. New challenges for security and defense also imply the need to change the concepts of the armed forces’ development, use, equipment, and training.
QJ Fall 2010 (full version) (PDF)
EU-Russia Energy Diplomacy: 2010 and Beyond? .................................................... 1 Irena Dimitrova China’s Strategic Growth Sustainment: Accidental Leader? .................................... 17 Zdzislaw Sliwa In the Shadow of Great Powers: A Comparative Study of Various Approaches to Regionalism in Central Asia ............................................................. 37 Xu Zhengyuan Modeling Defense Acquisition Strategy ................................................................... 53 Venelin Georgiev The Russo-Chinese Strategic Partnership: Oil and Gas Dimensions ........................ 69 Jean-Marie Holtzinger Security Implications of Neutrality: Switzerland in the Partnership for Peace Framework................................................................................................ 83 Marjorie Andrey The Armed Forces’ Development at the Beginning of the Twenty-First Century from the Polish Perspective......................................................................... 97 Stanisław Zajas