CIAO DATE: 03/2013
Volume: 11, Issue: 3
Summer 2012
Libya After Qadhafi: Reshaping the Political and Security Systems (PDF)
Wolfgang Mühlberger
The fall of Muammar al-Qadhafi in October 2011 marked the end of the Libyan upris- ing, led to the close of NATO’s intervention “Operation Unified Protector” (OUP), and ushered in a delicate political transformation which failed to come to a quick and deci- sive end with the first round of elections held in early July 2012. To assess some major pitfalls of the current transitional process, this article will propose an analysis of two main challenges the new Libyan authorities will face, the proper handling of which will determine the nature and stability of the future state. The first challenge is the political transition from an autocratic regime via revolutionary credentials to democratic legiti- macy. The second involves the construction and governance of an entirely reshaped se- curity sector, both in the military and civilian realms, transcending their previous roles in the Jamahiriyya either as Praetorian Guard or as state-sponsored bullies.
The Concreteness of Asymmetric War: Fragments of Experience (PDF)
Giuseppe Caforio
Asymmetric warfare takes its name from the pitting of a weaker opponent against a stronger one, and from the use of war-fighting techniques that are vastly different from traditional military tactics. It is the use of these untraditional methods that enables the weaker side stand up to its stronger adversary. The radical difference of asymmetric warfare from what is now mostly referred to as conventional warfare lies both in the ethical aspect of the conflict and in the types of actions that typically take place, as well as in the instruments brought to bear and the strategies used.
Strategic Communication with the Islamic World (PDF)
Marty Z. Khan
Nation-states (particularly non-Muslim states) will face daunting challenges in the strug- gle against terrorists who use Islam as a justification for their actions. This form of ter- rorism is multidimensional and global, and it is likely that this struggle will span several generations. While Muslim states are also victims of terrorism, non-Muslim states are at a greater disadvantage, even if they do have constitutional protections of religion for all citizens, including Muslims. In this continuing struggle, non-Muslim states must persua- sively communicate with the Islamic world about their aims and what they hope to achieve in the war against terror. Considering the scope of the violence that has already been perpetrated by these kinds of terrorists, countries engaged in this struggle will have to be extraordinarily vigilant to protect their interests, and in some cases, their allies. In contrast to this, terrorist organizations will continue to use their networks to counteract those governments that they are against and portray them negatively. Despite the threats posed by terror groups and the challenges to conducting military operations against ir- regular actors such as terrorists, non-Muslim states must prevail in their mission.
Key Challenges and Threats to National Security: The Polish Perspective (PDF)
Andrzej Glen
In the early twenty-first century, threats to the security of Poland have been substantially reassessed, and are still evolving. Currently, the threat of a conflict emerging that could lead to war on a global scale is less likely to take place. However, new sources of poten- tial conflict have appeared that can pose serious challenges and widespread threats to Polish national security. In order to face these challenges and effectively deal with the resulting threats to its national security system, the Polish leadership needs to determine which threats are most fundamental in nature, and which are of secondary concern. This article is intended to clarify the current challenges and threats to the national security of the Polish Republic, and to help build awareness of the challenges and threats that exist. Perhaps some of its conclusions can be of use to decision makers who are re- sponsible for maintaining Poland’s security. The process of explaining the pressures posed by these threats to national security was best initiated by formulating a set of questions about each potential conflict: What threats to the security of the Polish Re- public does it pose? How might these threats come about? And why is this particular conflict of concern?
The Redeployment of Chechnya-Based Troops to Dagestan: Background, Motives, and Repercussions (PDF)
Emil Souleimanov, Maya Ehrmann
Chechnya and Dagestan are two key autonomous republics in the North Caucasus. These two republics have the largest populations among the autonomous republics in the re- gion, and have a strong tradition of (political) Islam and extensive experience with re- ligion-driven insurgency flavored by separatist overtones that has been underway in the area since the beginning of the previous decade. Occupying a strategic location on the southernmost frontier of the Russian Federation and bordering Georgia and Azerbaijan, two independent nations of the post-Soviet South Caucasus, the developments in these neighboring autonomous republics have been regarded as crucial for the prospects of the Islamist insurgency in the North Caucasus. Should the self-proclaimed Caucasus Emir- ate, the leading group of the Islamist insurgency in the region, establish a firm presence in Chechnya and Dagestan, the chances of the federal authorities to successfully address the ongoing political violence in its southern provinces would decrease dramatically. This would pave the way for a considerable deterioration of the security situation in the whole of the North Caucasus, with possible repercussions in Russia’s other regions with significant Muslim populations.
Beyond Counterinsurgency: Why the Concept is Failing (PDF)
Thomas Braun
The changing face of modern warfare is revealed nowhere more clearly than in asym- metric surroundings where traditional approaches do not succeed anymore. Military forces are encountering numerous opponents who no longer consist largely of identifi- able combatants, but rather are irregular fighters who live among and within the popula- tion, making them extremely difficult to identify. Although uprisings and insurgencies are not new developments, the military’s capacity to combat them was neglected in doc- trinal thinking at the beginning of the twenty-first century. New trends and challenges and the rethinking of military combat operations, as well as the development of insights regarding a comprehensive approach, led to the re-creation of counterinsurgency doc- trine. The U.S. Army/Marine Corps Field Manual 3-24, titled simply Counterinsurgency (hereafter, FM 3-24), was written during the most recent conflict in Iraq. This process was largely driven by General David Petraeus. But the United States’ counterinsurgency strategy has shown disappointing results in Afghanistan, and critics are already calling for new approaches.1 Six years after the publication of FM 3-24 frustration is widespread that the current counterinsurgency approach in Afghanistan is not proving to be the panacea that it was promised to be. From the U.S. perspective, the topic becomes even more important, as counterinsurgency is “the strategy through which the United States has expended the greatest level of military resources since September 11, 2001.
Disputes in the Arctic: Threats and Opportunities (PDF)
Nikoloz Janjgava
For centuries, the Arctic was a “sacred place” for humanity. This frozen void was a magnet for adventurers and explorers, for everybody who wanted to challenge both themselves and nature. In nineteenth century, the “top of the world” became a field of competition for major European and North American nations. During this race, the main prize was the North Pole. Which state would be the first to claim it? Even at the climax of the era of colonial conquest, no nation was ready to declare the Arctic entirely for it- self. The twentieth century brought new developments to the Arctic. Two World Wars went almost unnoticed in the extreme North. But during the Cold War, the Arctic be- came a new battleground. For two superpowers—the United States and the Soviet Un- ion—the route through the Arctic provided the shortest course for nuclear-armed inter- continental missiles and planes loaded with thermonuclear bombs bound for targets in one nation or the other. The thick ice cap provided additional protection for the nuclear submarines trying to edge ever closer to enemy territory. After the end of Cold War and the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe, the attention given to the Arctic waned. With the beginning of the twenty-first century, new challenges arose in the Arctic. Cli- mate change, a global race for natural resources, new transportation routes, and old ter- ritorial disputes created not only new threats to security, but also opportunities for coop- eration between the Arctic countries.