CIAO DATE: 04/2014
Spring 2013
Latin America's Changing Global Connections (PDF)
Leani Garcia
Tracking commerce flows and foreign direct investment from 1995 to 2011.
Jorge Heine
On January 26 and 27, representatives from 61 nations, including 43 heads of state, gathered in Santiago, Chile for the 7th bi-regional summit of EU-LAC Heads of State and Government. It was one of the largest summits ever held in South America, and the first time that the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), launched in 2010, participated as the EU’s institutional counterpart.
Wendy Cukier
With gun violence once again at the top of the U.S. political agenda, the rest of the world waits anxiously for signs that Washington can move beyond the polarizing national debate over gun control and develop even modest improvements to firearms legislation. The issue is particularly sensitive in the Americas, where the trafficking of American guns, both legal and illegal, represents a threat to public safety. The National Rifle Association (NRA) will be at the center of this debate. Though widely considered one of the most powerful lobby groups in the U.S., the NRA’s impact on firearms policies extends far beyond U.S. borders.
Andy Baker
"Why do they hate us?” This question1, on so many U.S. citizens’ minds over the decade following the September 11, 2001, attacks, is often asked about Islamic extremists and even the broader Muslim world. Among the most common responses is that “they” resent U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. When the focus shifts to Latin America, U.S. foreign policy similarly appears to be the principal reason for anti-Americanism. This seems to make sense. One would be hard-pressed to find another world region with greater and more long-standing grievances about Washington’s actions. The Monroe Doctrine, Dollar Diplomacy and Cold War Containment were euphemisms for imperial abuses committed against Latin America over the course of two centuries.
The Next Big Thing? The Trans-Pacific Partnership & Latin America (PDF)
Jeffrey J. Schott, Barbara Kotschwar
The hottest topic in world trade these days is the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Hailed as a state-of-the-art free trade agreement (FTA), it will unite 11 countries—Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States, and Vietnam—with a combined GDP of almost $21 trillion (about 30 percent of world GDP) and $4.4 trillion in exports of goods and services, or about a fifth of total world exports. If you add Japan and South Korea—who are actively exploring entry later this year—TPP would cover 40 percent of world GDP and nearly a third of world exports. But as with any ambitious multilateral trade initiative, getting to the final goal won’t be easy. Many of the TPP participants already have FTAs with one another, and many have trade agreements with partners not expected to join the pact. In Latin America, some countries with existing strong trade ties across the Pacific are in the negotiations; others are not. TPP as currently conceived may also disrupt existing intra-American integration arrangements, with some countries and trade blocs left out entirely.
The Next Step: Latin America's Growing Economies (PDF)
Alejandro M. Werner, Oya Celasun
Latin America has bounced back economically in the past decade. Between 2002 and 2012, the region has seen strong and stable growth, low inflation and improved economic fundamentals. As a result, the weight of the region in global economic output increased from about 6 percent in the 1990s to 8 percent in 2012. With that has come a greater voice in the global economy. Four countries in the region (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico) have started to play an increasingly prominent role in the governance of the world economy through their participation in the G20—and once the International Monetary Fund’s 2010 governance reforms come into force, the region’s voting power in the organization will increase from 7.7 percent before 2008 to 8.4 percent. In most of Latin America, 2012 marked the end of the business cycle set in motion by the 2008–2009 global economic crisis. As in many emerging market economies, the global recession initially dampened Latin American economic growth, but a solid recovery (with above-trend growth) followed. By 2012, the region’s average economic growth pattern returned, with growth slowing to a more normal pace...
Brazil's Second-Best Financial Strategy (PDF)
Seth Colby
In November 2009, the cover of The Economist showed the iconic Christ statue overlooking Rio de Janeiro blasting off into outer space. This image, along with the cover headline, “Brazil Takes Off,” represented the Carnaval-like euphoria about Brazil that infected journalists and financial markets at the time, buoyed by the country’s impressive economic performance in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis. But since then, giddiness has turned to gloom. As the country’s economy begins to cool, Brazil bears are on the rise. Downbeat assessments, such as Nomura Bank’s recent prediction that Mexico will overtake Brazil as Latin America’s largest economy in the next decade, have cooled investor enthusiasm. GDP growth has screeched to a sudden stop, falling from 7.5 percent in 2010 to 2.7 percent in 2011 and 0.9 percent in 2012. Between January and November 2012, Brazil experienced a $7.1 billion net outflow in portfolio investments, compared to a $14.3 net inflow for the same period in 2011.1
Latin America Has Moved On: U.S. Scholarship Hasn't (PDF)
Mariano Bertucci
The study of what scholars focus on and debate helps to shape how policy is understood and discussed in the public realm and, sometimes, even made. However, a close look at the past three decades of scholarly publications on U.S.–Latin American relations, covering 174 peer-reviewed articles and 167 non-edited books, reveals a disconnect with many of the themes and realities in the region today. International relations or other fields of inquiry related to global studies, such as international political economy or security, are severely underrepresented in scholarship on the Western Hemisphere. Instead, most of the research in the field is based on the study of foreign policy. Over 94 percent of the scholarly publications noted above that are dedicated to the region could be qualified as foreign policy analyses rather than the more current or trendy themes of international relations theory or international political economy.
What is IBSA Anyway? (PDF)
Daniel Kurtz-Phelan
In June 2003, Brazil’s then-President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva found himself on the sidelines of a G8 summit in France, along with his counterparts from India and South Africa. They had been invited to the summit as observers, but the invitation served mostly to underscore a common frustration. “What is the use of being invited for dessert at the banquet of the powerful?” as Lula later put it. “We do not want to participate only to eat the dessert; we want to eat the main course, dessert and then coffee.” This June, the leaders of the three countries will gather in New Delhi to mark the 10th anniversary of a group created to address that shared frustration. IBSA, as the group is called, was launched soon after the G8 summit with a modest-sounding announcement: as “three countries with vibrant democracies, from three regions of the developing world,” India, Brazil and South Africa (IBSA) had “decided to further intensify dialogue at all levels, when needed, to organize meetings of top officials and experts responsible for issues of mutual interest.”
The Politics of Pipelines (PDF)
Shefga Siegel
Over the past decade, prices of major commodities (e.g., oil, coal, copper, gold, silver, tin, and iron ore) have skyrocketed, igniting a global boom in natural resources. Before this fairly recent development, a common assumption was that the world was entering a period of resource scarcity, most notably for oil, which would accelerate an eventual transition to renewable energy and weaken the reliance on carbon-loaded fossil fuels. While popular perceptions of oil and gas extraction are marked by explosive gushers needing only to be pumped—think of the 2007 film There Will Be Blood—deposits of commonly used resources are deeper, more remote, require more mining and processing, are more energy- and water-intensive, and more toxic than such images represent.
Ask the Experts: Going Global (PDF)
Howard J. Wiarda, Cynthia J. Arnson, Flavio Dario Espinal, Pablo E. Guidatti
What role will Latin America have in world affairs? Cynthia J. Arnson answers: Political and economic integration schemes have long been a staple of Latin American foreign policy. But changes in the regional and global economy since the early 2000s have created new incentives for the reform of global governance mechanisms to reflect the new constellations of political and economic power. South American countries benefited from soaring Chinese demand for commodities, energy and agricultural products, put their fiscal houses in order after years of painful adjustment, and implemented social programs that lifted tens of millions of people out of poverty and reduced inequality. The United States and Europe, meanwhile, remain mired in recession, leading prominent Latin American intellectuals to speak of historic power shifts from West to East. While the prediction may be premature and exaggerated, by the end of the first decade of the twenty-first century, Latin America and Asia were the two powerhouses of the world economy. Commercial relations had deepened with China, India, South Korea and others. The opportunities represented by multiple options for global economic insertion were spurred by the political incentives arising from the post-9/11 unilateralism of U.S. foreign policy, widely rejected in the region.
DISPATCHES FROM THE FIELD: GUATEMALA CITY
Quentin Delpech
Guate-Mara: the Extortion Economy in Guatemala
BY QUENTIN DELPECH
The maras add union-busting to their repertoire of murder and extortion.
Behind the walls of export-processing zones in Mixco and Villa Nueva on the outskirts of Guatemala City, apparel workers assemble, sew, label, inspect, and iron millions of garments, packing them in cartons bound for the United States. For more than 30 years, Guatemala's maquilas have been a hub of the global economy; but lately, these plants have been the center of a much darker story.
They've become the prime targets of the maras, gangs of criminals that are flourishing in this Central American nation.
Pablo Solón and Gregory Weeks debate: Will ALBA outlive Hugo Chávez?
Gregory Weeks, Pablo Solon
Will ALBA outlive Hugo Chávez? Yes: Pablo Solón; No: Gregory Weeks In this issue: The popular tendencies that led to ALBA remain as relevant today as they were at its creation. Despite its pretentions, the alliance was held together primarily by oil largess that can't last.
Some of our hemisphere's emerging leaders in politics, business, civil society, and the arts. In this issue: Politics Innovator: Michèle Audette, Canada Arts Innovator: Mauricio Díaz Calderón, Colombia Civic Innovator: Tania Mattos, Bolivia/United States Business Innovator: Instiglio, United States
Court reform in Mexico — Central America's border squabbles — the Pacific Alliance.
Jose Antonio Caballero
Judiciary: The Courts in Mexico BY JOSÉ ANTONIO CABALLERO The steady process of change in judicial organizations in Mexico, which began in the mid-1990s, was given a major boost in the past few years with four constitutional amendments. The most significant is a 2008 amendment requiring that all state and federal judicial systems transition from a written-based inquisitorial system to an oral-based accusatorial one by 2016. This will bring greater transparency while better protecting the rights of the accused and allowing for the presumption of innocence until proven guilty. Halfway into the transition phase, though, the processes’ slow implementation poses a risk that states won’t meet the 2016 deadline.
Rock al Parque in Bogotá — Fashionistas flock to Jamaica — Celebrating the cuy — Travel: Vancouver.
Robin Dean
The crowd at Rock al Parque 2012. Photo: Diego Santacruz/AP Rock al Parque With one of the richest musical cultures in the Americas, Colombia has added rock to its repertoire. Devout fans of the music that inspired generations of American and British teenagers since the 1950s have been gathering every year in Bogotá’s Simón Bolívar Metropolitan Park for Rock al Parque (Rock in the Park), the region’s largest annual rock festival.
Saskia Sassen, Andrew Selee, Moses Naim
Two Nations Indivisible: Mexico, the United States, and the Road Ahead by Shannon O'Neil BY ANDREW SELEE Click here to view a video interview with Shannon O'Neil. No relationship in the Western Hemisphere is more critical for the United States than its relationship with Mexico. U.S. security is closely tied to Mexico’s ability (and willingness) to strengthen its legal and judicial system, and to Mexico’s economic potential. And conversely, an improving American economy will have an outsized impact on Mexico’s future development. In Two Nations Indivisible: Mexico, the United States, and the Road Ahead, Shannon K. O’Neil, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, provides both a readable recent history of Mexico and a cogent argument for why U.S. policymakers, business leaders and citizens should care about the future of their southern neighbor. In one of her more compelling passages, she imagines what it would be like if Mexico’s economy were to take off as Spain’s did in the 1980s and 1990s.