CIAO Focus, January 2011

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CIAO Focus, March 2011: What Now for the Middle East?

The uprising in Tunisia that toppled the longstanding authoritarian regime of Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali triggered a wave of popular revolt that quickly spread throughout the region. In Egypt massive pro-democracy demonstrations effectively ended the 30-year reign of Hosni Mubarak followed by similar protest movements in Jordan, Iraq, Iran, Bahrain, Yemen and Libya. But while the autocracies of Egypt and Tunisia imploded with minimal resistance when confronted by such opposition, the Sunni monarchy in Bahrain used brute force to disperse the mostly Shi’te demonstrators who had converged on Pearl Square in Manama, and Libya currently teeters on the brink of civil war as a result of Qaddafi’s refusal to step down. When similar protests broke out in Jordan, King Abdullah sacked his government and appointed a new cabinet led by a reformist prime minister.

The causes of Arab discontent are essentially twofold. First, negative socioeconomic factors, including the sudden rise in the cost of food and basic services coupled with mass youth unemployment and increased social stratification, have engendered widespread feelings of hopelessness about the future especially among college graduates under 30. Then there are the political causes: autocratic regimes unable or unwilling to address ongoing socioeconomic problems, blatant corruption and government cronyism, police brutality--including the systematic use of torture--and the absence of political outlets. It was only a matter of time before the region boiled over.

The groundswell of Arab rebellion not only caught Europe, Israel and the U.S. by surprise, but the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups, which in recent years have been at the forefront of anti-regime activities in many of these countries, were similarly blindsided by this recent chain of events and so were forced to play catch-up. In the West, the revolt has challenged the widely held belief that Arabs are at best apathetic about democratic forms of government, and the notion that democracy and Islam are simply incompatible.

Yet as remarkable as the political upheavals in Egypt and Tunisia have been, it may be premature to call them genuine revolutions. Egypt is currently governed by an interim military council, and unless the army proves willing to institute real reforms, the 18-day uprising that began on January 25 will have amounted to little more than a military coup d’état. And even if the interim powers are open to holding free and fair elections, the road to a stable democracy will be an arduous one. Civil society institutions (e.g. a free press, political parties, independent trade unions, a transparent judiciary, etc.) are either weak or non-existent in most if not all Arab countries, which share a long history of political repression.

This is not to say that Arab democracy is unattainable. The people of that region need only look to Muslim Turkey and Indonesia for inspiration--and even Pakistan has enjoyed periods of democratic rule. The success of the “revolutions” in Egypt and Tunisia will depend largely on the perseverance of the popular movements that spawned them. In addition, the West can help by reevaluating its relationships with the region’s myriad dictators and by supporting real initiatives for democratic change. Such moves could yield broad benefits in the region and indeed worldwide, outlasting the current oil shocks and above all the dark anxieties that flow from such political turmoil.

--Robert Sedgwick
Editor, CIAO

From the CIAO Database:

The Arab Revolt: Roots and Perspectives

Confidence-building in Tunisia after the Popular Uprising: Strategies and Dilemmas of the Interim Government

Fighting in Libya: The Military Balance

Tunisia's democratic revolution and its actors

The dynamics of Egypt’s protest: an inside view

Policing the People, Building the State: Authoritarian Transformation in the West Bank and Gaza

Outside Sources: *

Ibn Khaldun Center for Development Studies
http://www.eicds.org/

Informed Comment: Thoughts on the Middle East, History and Religion
http://www.juancole.com/

Arab Human Development Report 2009
http://www.arab-hdr.org/publications/other/ahdr/ahdr2009e.pdf

Middle East & Information Project
http://www.merip.org/

Issue Guide: North Africa and Middle East Protests (Council on Foreign Relations)
http://www.cfr.org/egypt/issue-guide-north-africa-middle-east-protests/p23929

The Washington Institute for Near Eastern Policy
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateI01.php

* Outside links are not maintained. For broken outside links, CIAO recommends the Way Back Machine.