Memorandum

Strengthening Democratic Institution
Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project
John F. Kennedy School of Government

March, 1997

From the distance of thousands of miles, looking at the war in Chechnya, some things seem clear and mamy others cloudy. On some problems, distance allows the viewer a clearer picture of the forest than those located amidst the trees, or perhaps even entangled in the leaves, can take.

Chechnya is perhaps the most hotly-debated issue in Russia today. Four Commissions, fourteen announced plans, provide backdrop for daily developments on the ground, and announcements in the air. President Yeltsin has promised on at least three successive occasions (.... ) to announce his solution to the problem(but each date comes and goes without the word. Perhaps his announcement will be made in the gap between our submission of this memorandum and our meeting.

Participants in the Conference include a number of the central players in the ongoing discussions about resolving the Chechen conflict. But precisely because each knows so much about the many complex facets of this problem, and will undoubtedly be constrained from sharing classified or proprietary views, the Conference organizers thought it useful to ask us to prepare a basic analysis of the issue and the options. As academics interested in the issue, but without access to classified information from any of the parties, or constraints as advisors or participants, our analysis, attached, may serve as a strawman for the Conference’s discussion.

Our hope is that by identifying the realities in Russia and Chechnya, the interests of and constraints upon the actors, and the analytic options for resolution, this memorandum will provide a framework for discussion at the Conference of alternative, viable ways of resolving this bloody conflict. This memorandum is presented in draft form, subject to continuous revision in the light of views offered by those better informed than we about the realities, the interests, the constraints, and the options.