Introduction

South Asia After the Tests: Where Do We Go From Here?
Roundtable Workshop
July 1, 1998

Asia Society

It was recognized at the outset of the workshop that India’s and Pakistan’s nuclear tests in May 1998 raised a number of questions, both broad and specific. Three broad, but counter-intuitive questions were identified. First, just how much have the tests really changed the international nuclear non-proliferation regime and South Asia’s security situation? A case can be made that the two countries’ tests do no more than make explicit their nuclear capabilities, which have been fairly confidently known for years if not decades. Second, are there enhanced opportunities for stability and security as a result of the tests? While on the one hand the tests increase risks of conflict resulting from miscalculations and accidents, it is also possible that they will focus the attention of India and Pakistan on reducing tensions between them, and on increasing the security of the region as a whole. The tests might also have the benefit of making external actors such as China more aware of South Asia’s security dynamics and the implications of its own policies for the region. Third, how much influence does the international community have on India’s and Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programs? In the past, India and Pakistan have been strongly resistant to external efforts to influence their security policies, and it is quite likely that this will remain the case despite strong responses to the tests from countries such as the United States.

From the policymaker’s point of view, India’s and Pakistan’s nuclear tests also raise some very serious and specific questions about what follows next. For example, how far are India and Pakistan from establishing a viable program for deploying and delivering nuclear weapons? What kinds of doctrines will govern the role of nuclear weapons in India and Pakistan’s security policy? What might be done to get India and Pakistan to stop further nuclear development from where they are right now and preserve stability between each other?

With these questions in mind, the workshop focused on both the causes and consequences of India’s and Pakistan’s nuclear tests.