Regional Stability and Strategic Balance: Perspectives from East Asia
South Asia After the Tests: Where Do We Go From Here?
Roundtable Workshop
July 1, 1998
Impact on Asia-Pacific Region
The focus of this presentation was twofold. First, what are the implications of Indias and Pakistans tests for the Asia-Pacific region? Second, what have been Japans reactions to Indias and Pakistans nuclear tests? It should be said that on neither front is there anything dramatic to report.
Asia-Pacific Reaction
In the Asia-Pacific region, neither India nor Pakistan are seen as vital forces in political, economic, and strategic terms. For most Southeast Asian and East Asian states with the exception of China, which has its own unique concerns here, Indias and Pakistans tests have not had a great deal of resonance.
However, in the broader context of Indias and Pakistans attempts to improve relations with Southeast and East Asia, certain factors should be noted. First, in spite of the dissatisfaction with Indias position on the CTBT and indefinite extension of the NPT as well as other nuclear-related issues including its nuclear tests, Indias relations with the wider region has improved. During the same period that India has opposed these treaties it has been inducted into the ASEAN Regional Forum over American and Japanese objections, and moved from a sectoral to a full dialogue partner status with ASEAN. Although chronology does not equate with causality, it is important to keep in mind that Indias nuclear policies have not harmed its relations with the rest of Asia in any fundamental way.
Likewise, on the economic front, Indias nuclear policies has not harmed its relations with Southeast and East Asia. Although Indias economic relations with the region are marginal, the real constraint to further growth is not the countrys nuclear policies, but rather its lack of real economic opportunities.
Southeast Asians are keen to keep this dispute from impinging upon their region. To this extent, the increase in India-Pakistan tensions resulting from their respective nuclear tests has been unwelcome and is growing as a source of concern.
Finally, it is important not to assume that Southeast Asia or ASEAN as a bloc are in complete opposition to Indias nuclear policies. Not long ago, for example, an Indonesian journalist said that Indian acquisition of nuclear weapons may in fact serve a useful purpose of deterring other regional countries, although none was named.
Japans Reaction
Japans initial reactions to the tests were quite strongly negative. Japan suspended aid, imposed sanctions, called on the G8 to respond, and briefly recalled its ambassadors from Islamabad and Delhi. But, even Japans reaction must be placed into three larger contexts:
All this suggests a certain ambiguity and flexibility in Japans position on the nuclear nonproliferation regime. A very small minority of Japanese strategic thinkers have gone even further to say that Delhis possession of nuclear weapons is not contrary to Japanese interests and concerns about China. And this Japanese argument is not fundamentally different from similar arguments made by some Americans during the 1960s.
Geography and Pathology
Thus far two major issues have been raised: regional stability and the balance of power. However, two dimensions needed to be added: geography and pathology.
A major problem strategically is that in the Eurasian landmass surrounding the subcontinent, there are three distinct security dynamics: east central Europe, the greater Middle East, and finally east Asia. South Asia is tangential to all of these dynamics, but plays a central role in none. This geographic reality partly explains Indias pathology of feeling that it has not been given its due place in the world. This geographic reality is also a factor in Indias long-standing complaint that American policy does not take India as seriously as it should.
There is also the underlying pathology of relationship between India and Pakistan: Pakistan fears that India has never accepted Partition; India fears that Pakistan has refused to accept a kind of Indian dominance and seeks to dismember India. In a sense, both countries are correct.
One problem that confronts India-Pakistan relations is that there appears to be only one model of deterrence for each country to turn to with respect to the doctrines and command and control. The United States and the Soviet Union took a long time to arrive at a kind of equilibrium and strategic stability. In the case of India and Pakistan case there may be a long period of danger as the two cross the river by feeling for stones, as the Chinese say. India has a legitimate concern about Chinas relationship with Pakistan. China has obviously provided Pakistan with a bomb design, ring magnets, and other material as well as missiles or components to build them. However, the core of the issue of conflict between India and Chinain effect, a border disputedoes not come close to reaching an existential level that would merit the use of nuclear weapons. Frankly, if India wanted leverage over China it could use Tibet more effectively than by the deployment of nuclear weapons.
United States policy has not been helpful either. For the Clinton Administration to assert that it is shocked to find there is a proliferation problem in the subcontinent and to cast China as a neutral party is very strange. This approach is self-deluding and guaranteed to fail in terms of any kind of diplomacy to manage the situation. The United States has made a laundry list of demands on India and Pakistan but has nothing to put on the table for negotiations except sanctions.
Another issue is the effect of Indias and Pakistans tests on other would-be proliferators. To be sure, Iran has demonstrated an interest in developing nuclear weapons long before the Indian and Pakistani tests, and these tests can only encourage Iran to proceed in that direction. The tests also sharpens the dangers of a nuclear arms race in northeast Asia that is likely to be triggered by Korean reunification.
The South Asian situation also brings to the fore the involvement of East Asia. It is fairly certain that the Ghauri missile tested by Pakistan was partly a product of the long-standing relationship between North Korea and Pakistan. And although they often exaggerate their fears, some South Koreans and Japanese express concern that there will at some point be a payback for North Koreas assistance.
It was suggested that Indias next move would be to join the nuclear suppliers group and in so doing, China would be pressured to join the group as well. As for officially recognizing India and Pakistans nuclear status, it will be impossible to do so in the context of amending the NPT.
From its viewpoint, Indias grievances in its relations with East Asia is justified: Japan and Germany are offered UN Security Council seats, India is not; India is not invited to join APEC; and the United States was strongly opposed to the idea of including India in the ARF. Actually, it makes excellent sense for India to be included in the above organizations. As a member, this will broaden Indias strategic perspective, strengthen its already long-standing historical and cultural ties to Southeast and East Asia, and participate in addressing legitimate security concerns emanating from the region.
Discussion
Chinese Perspective on Indias Nuclear Strategy
The Chinese view Indias decision to test on three levels: First, India has a political strategy. Domestic political considerations played a role in the decision to conduct the nuclear tests. Internationally, India tried, through the tests, to name China as its number one enemy. Not only do the tests now serve as a strategic obstacle to continued improvement in bilateral relations, they are also an obstacle to the improvement of India-Pakistan relations. India has already been hurt internationally by its stance on nuclear issues: In 1997, India was severely criticized in ARF and other multilateral forum for its opposition to the CTBT, by trying to block the achievement of consensus on the CTBT in the Conference on Disarmament (CD) in Geneva. The tests have further undermined Indias international position, and made it quite unlikely that India will become a permanent member of the Security Council. In essence, Indias decision to test has been a political tragedy.
The Chinese also see the negative economic consequences. Indias growth over the past few years of its reform process has been strong. Like China, India needs foreign investment and technology to sustain growth rates and modernize and develop its economy. By provoking sanctions, the nuclear tests have seriously undermined the achievement of Indias economic objectives.
Finally, there is the view of the test as a strategic tragedy. Vis-à-vis China, India has gained no strategic advantages because China has a policy of no-first-use and also a policy barring it from threatening to use nuclear weapons against any state that does not have them. One participant countered that by stating that the pledge only applies to signatories of the NPT, of which India is not, China has deliberately kept its no-first-use pledge from applying to India. There was much debate and uncertainty over the precise application of Chinas no-first-use pledge and whether or not it applies to India. The point was left unresolved.
Dealing with the Tests
It was suggested that one strategy to deal with Indias nuclear tests was to open a dialogue between India and the P5 members to seek a common consensual approach toward the South Asian nuclear situation. The focus should be on three aspects: nuclear arms reductions, nuclear non-proliferation, and security measures or guarantees.
A need for serious efforts to improve China-India and India-Pakistan relations was suggested. Improvements in these relations should be coordinated with the improvement of relations among China, the United States, and Russia. This would create an environment to stop nuclear competition and proliferation. One of Indias key concerns is the possible presence of nuclear weapons in Tibet. One thing China could do is improve transparency on this issue, which is notably lacking at the current moment, an extension of Chinas general lack of transparency in its nuclear weapons program.
It was further noted that the United States has placed far too much emphasis on foreign contributions to Pakistans nuclear and missile programs while ignoring Canadian and Russian assistance to Indias nuclear and missile capabilities.
Japan and the Tests
Several points were made on Japans response to the tests. First, Japans response was consistent with sanctions placed on China after its nuclear tests. Second, Japan does not necessarily consider Indias nuclearization a negative development, as it did Chinas, since India is a democracy and thus quite different from China. Indias nuclear weapons would be under the control of a democratic government. Strategically, Indias nuclear weapons capability could serve as a counter to China. Although Japan relies on the United States extended nuclear deterrence as a pragmatic necessity, it is not completely satisfied with this arrangement. At the same time Japan supports comprehensive disarmament by accepting the NPT regime as a necessary, but discriminatory, evil. Many in Japan are sympathetic to India and Pakistans criticisms of the existing NPT regime. If the other nuclear powers do not make a sincere effort to global disarmament, and if regional stability and security breaks down in East Asia, then Japan may have no choice but to become an NWS. Specifically, if the United States-Japan alliance falters or if the U.S. nuclear umbrella loses its credibility for Japan, then Japan will have no incentive to maintain its present restraint and acceptance of the NPT regime. Moreover, the United States and Russia must continue to pursue nuclear reductions and they must invite China to join in these reductions. If there is a reasonable degree of progress but India and Pakistan continue to build their nuclear weapons capabilities, then Japan will go beyond suspension of aid, perhaps even leveling sanctions on trade and investment with the two countries.
India and FMCT
It was pointed out that India could afford to enter into the FMCT immediately because the country has enough fissionable material required for the planned minimum deterrent.
Indias Missile Delivery System
Indias missile delivery system, the Agni, is a 1,500-kilometer range missile and does not meet any of Indias range requirements. The Agni II, about which India has been totally transparent, is an intermediate-range missile under development, with a range between 2,500-3,000 kilometers. It will probably take 2-3 years for the Agni IIs subsequent deployment. But in essence, the delivery systems that India has are or will be sufficient, and should be considered available at this point.