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From G7 To G8:
Evolution, Role and Documentation of a Unique Institution

Peter I. Hajnal

Columbia International Affairs Online

April 1998

 

Summit Results

Throughout their history, the G7/G8 summits have performed in an uneven manner. Kirton characterizes the first cycle, 1975-1981, as high-performance summits; the second cycle, 1982-1988, as low-performance summits; and the third cycle, 1989-1995, as mediumperformance summits. 77

Several observers have discussed the degree of success of summit meetings and compliance with summit decisions. These evaluations fall into two main classes: Putnam and Bayne, and Kirton (1) and (2)--below--rate summits on the basis of agreements aimed at coordination or cooperation; George M. von Furstenberg and Joseph P. Daniels (3), Eleonore Kokotsis and John J. Kirton (4) and the University of Toronto G7 Research Group (5) evaluate compliance with measurable or verifiable commitments by the summits.

  1. Putnam and Bayne grade the 1975-1986 summits, awarding the highest mark, "A", to Bonn 1(1978) on growth, energy and trade, followed by Rambouillet (1975) with an "A-" on monetary reform; Tokyo 1(1979) with a "B +" on energy; Williamsburg (1983) with a "B" on Euromissiles; Tokyo 11(1986) on terrorism and surveillance and London I (1977) on trade, growth and nuclear power, both with a "B-"; Venice 1(1980) with a "C+" on Afghanistan and energy; Versailles (1982) with a "C" on East-West trade and surveillance; and London 11(1984) with a "C-" on debt. Ottawa (1981) and San Juan, Puerto Rico (1976) each receive a "D" and Bonn 11(1985) an "E", the last three with the note that they achieved "nothing significant " in terms of cooperation. Venice 11(1987) ranks with Puerto Rico ("D"). 78 Bayne writes in 1997 that "an updating of the Putnam scale reveals higher marks for the Summits of the third cycle [1989-1994] than the second [1981-1988], though still below the first [1975-1980]" and adds that the "first two Summits of the fourth cycle [1995 and 1996] also score well. 79

  2. Kirton ranks summits from 1988 on, mostly on the basis of editorials of the Toronto newspaper The Globe and Mail, as follows: 1988, "A"; 1989, "A"; 1990, "B+"; 1991, "C"; 1992, "B-"; 1993, "B"; and 1994, "B-". 80 Apart from quantitative assessments, it may be noted that reports by the news media generally show growing disenchantment with the summits, although the 1995 Halifax Summit received rather more favorable treatment. Discussing summits from a British point of view, Hodges comments that "[o]verall the G-7 summits are considered to be a worthwhile endeavour, although individual meetings have been of variable utility. Munich was ... not worth the time invested; Tokyo [1993] was perceived as more successful. " 81 Writing in 1995 about implementation of summit commitments, Kirton remarks that "[c] ompliance is very high in the fields of international trade and in energy (a category which has now broadened to include the global environment), very low in the monetary policy areas of foreign exchange, inflation and interest rates, and somewhat better in the Keynesian fundamentals of demand composition, fiscal adjustments, official development assistance, and Gross National Product (GNP) growth. " 82

  3. Von Furstenberg and Daniels, writing in 1991 and 1992, examine the degree of compliance with 209 verifiable undertakings of fifteen summits (1975-1989), primarily in the areas of inflation, unemployment, economic growth, fiscal imbalances, interest rates, exchange rates, and energy policy. 83 They give a combined score of 0.317 (simple average) or 0.280 (weighted average); that is, these undertakings were honored only one-fourth to one-third. Their findings show a wide variation in compliance among summit countries (with Canada and Great Britain scoring higher than France and the U.S.) as well as different rates from issue to issue. Von Furstenberg and Daniels conclude:

    the fact that undertakings remain largely unfulfilled means that the process has as yet acquired little binding force and that fuzziness and credibility have not been supporting each other in this regard. Rather, the low level of credibility may have made fuzziness indicative of a lack of commitment. If ... the economic declarations are the main institutional product of the summit process, the product has yet to prove itself as deserving of much credit with the public. " 84

  4. Kokotsis and Kirton, in 1997 and 1998, explore compliance with G7 commitments in the areas of environment and development from 1988 to 1995. 85 Analyzing the record of the U.S. and Canada, they examine 83 commitments in four issue areas: climate change, biodiversity, the debt of developing countries, and assistance to the USSR/Russia. They give the overall compliance score of 43%, with Canada scoring 53% and the U.S., 34%. On assistance to Russia, the Kokotsis/Kirton score is a high 81 %; on developing-country debt, 73 %, on climate change, 34%' and on biodiversity a negative record, - 13 %.

  5. The University of Toronto G7 Research Group has evaluated compliance with commitments of the 1996 Lyon Summit by the time of the 1997 Denver Summit of the Eight. 86 The Research Group's study focuses on the record of all G7 countries on compliance with undertakings in the following 19 issue areas: macroeconomics, trade, microeconomics, development, IFI (international financial institutions) reform, terrorism, UN reform (UNCTAD IX, the 9the United Conference on Trade and Development), UN reform (financial contributions by G7 countries), human rights, arms control, proliferation (land mines), nuclear safety, environment, the Global Information Society, crime, East/West relations, Middle East, Asia, and conflict in Europe. The Group has arrived at the overall score of 0.36 (i.e., commitments 36% fulfilled). Table 6 gives the detailed scores developed in this study. At the time of this writing, the Research Group is about to complete a similar study of compliance with six commitments made at the Denver Summit: early Russian accession to the WTO, employment (labor market, education, structural changes), climate change (follow-up of the Kyoto conference), transnational organized crime (combating trafficking in illegal firearms), development (focusing on Africa, especially the heavily indebted poor countries or HIPCs), and anti-personnel land mines.

The fact that each of these studies starts from different premises and each measures or evaluates different aspects of the subject makes them difficult to compare. Nonetheless, the set of studies covers the period from the inception of the summits in 1975 to 1998, yielding evaluations over a twenty-four-year period. They reveal relatively high success rates on certain issues and by some summit countries, and lower rates (in some cases, negative values) for other issues and countries. They do, however, make a convincing case that, overall, there has been a fairly significant degree of compliance with summit undertakings.

Notes:

Note 77: Kirton, "The Diplomacy of Concert: Canada, the G7 and the Halifax Summit," 66. Back.

Note 78: Hanging Together: Cooperation and Conflict in the Seven-Power Summits, rev. ed., Table 11.1, p. 270. Back.

Note 79: Nicholas Bayne, "Changing Patterns at the G7 Summit": 1. URL: www. library. utoronto. ca/www/g7/governance/govelsum. htm. Back.

Note 806: Kirton, "The Diplomacy of Concert: Canada, the G7 and the Halifax Summit," 66 (footnote 11), and John J. Kirton, "Contemporary Concert Diplomacy: The Seven-Power Summit and the Management of International Order". Back.

Note 81: Michael Hodges, "More Efficiency, Less Dignity: British Perspectives on the Future Role and Working of the G-7," 149. Back.

Note 82: Kirton, "The Diplomacy of Concert: Canada, the G7 and the Halifax Summit," 67. Back.

Note 83: George M. Von Furstenberg, and Joseph P. Daniels, "Policy Undertakings by the Seven 'Summit' Countries: Ascertaining the Degree of Compliance." Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 35 (Autumn 1991): 267-308.; George M. Von Furstenberg, and Joseph P. Daniels, Economic Summit Declarations, 1975-1989: Examining the Written Record of International Cooperation. Princeton Studies in International Finance, No. 72 (Princeton, N. J.: International Finance Section, Dept. of Economics, Princeton University, 1992). Back.

Note 84: Von Furstenberg and Daniels, Economic Summit Declarations, 1975-1989: Examining the Written Record of International Cooperation, 43. Back.

Note 85: Eleonore. Kokotsis, National Compliance with G7 Environment and Development Commitments, 1988-1995. Ph.D. dissertation (Toronto: University of Toronto, 1998. Unpublished); Eleonore Kokotsis and John J. Kirton, "National Compliance with Environmental Regimes: The Case of the G7, 1988-1995," paper prepared for the Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Toronto, March 18-22, 1997. Unpublished. Back.

Note 86: University of Toronto G7 Research Group, Compliance with G7 Commitments: From Lyon 1996 to Denver 1997. URL: www. library.utoronto.ca/www/g7/evaluations/compnew.htm. Back.