CIAO DATE: 08/2011
June 2011
United States Institute of Peace
Nigeria’s climate is likely to see growing shifts in temperature, rainfall, storms, and sea levels throughout the twenty-first century. Poor adaptive responses to these shifts could help fuel violent conflict in some areas of the country. A basic causal mechanism links climate change with violence in Nigeria. Under it, poor responses to climatic shifts create shortages of resources such as land and water. Shortages are followed by negative secondary impacts, such as more sickness, hunger, and joblessness. Poor responses to these, in turn, open the door to conflict. Drawing lines of causation between climate change and conflict in specific areas of Nigeria calls for caution, however, particularly as the scientific, social, economic, and political implications of the country’s changing climate are still poorly understood. President Goodluck Jonathan’s government needs to initiate a serious program of research and policy discussion before taking major adaptive steps.
Resource link: Climate Change Adaptation and Conflict in Nigeria [PDF] - 388K