Columbia International Affairs Online: Working Papers

CIAO DATE: 09/2010

The Economy of Burma/Myanmar on the Eve of the 2010 Elections

Lex Rieffel

July 2010

United States Institute of Peace

Abstract

This report examines the economy of Burma at a crucial moment in Southeast Asia's most troubled country. A low-intensity conflict based on ethnic and religious differences has simmered since independence in 1948. The country's military rulers have been waging an existential struggle with a democratic movement led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi since they repudiated her party's election victory in 1990. Before the end of 2010, an election will be held that is more about transferring power to a new generation of military officers than making a transition to civilian rule. To focus attention on the economic dimension of peacebuilding in Burma, this report draws on the discussion at a day-long workshop sponsored by USIP's Center for Sustainable Economies. The workshop brought together experts on key aspects of Burma's economy and employees from congress and U.S. government departments and agencies directly concerned with U.S. relations with Burma. The workshop sessions focused on macroeconomic policy, the extractive sectors, agriculture, the private sector, trade and investment, and the narcotics economy. Professor Joseph Stiglitz led the concluding session on a more productive agrarian economy. Lex Rieffel is a nonresidnt senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. He has thirty years of experience working with the U.S. Agency for International Development, the U.S. Treasury Department, and the global financial industry. His recent research has focused on Southeast Asia, especially civil-military relations in Indonesia and Burma. The author is grateful for comments from Raymond Gilpin, Steven Heydemann, Eugene Martin, John Park, David Steinberg, and Daniel Serwer.