Columbia International Affairs Online: Working Papers

CIAO DATE: 10/2009

Scenarios for Sudan: Avoiding Political Violence Through 2011

Alan Schwartz

August 2009

United States Institute of Peace

Abstract

This report summarizes three workshops designed to explore opportunities to avoid political violence in Sudan through the end of 2011. Sponsored by the United States Institute of Peace, these workshops took place during April and May 2009 with assistance from PolicyFutures, LLC. Twenty Sudan experts participated. The author, Alan Schwartz, principal and cofounder of PolicyFutures, LLC, teaches and facilitates the use of analytic tools and techniques, including scenario planning. He is an affiliated professor at Georgetown University’s Public Policy Institute. He holds an LLM in administrative law from Georgetown University Law Center and a JD from University of Pennsylvania Law School. In October 2006 he published USIP Special Report 174, “Scenarios for the Insurgency in Iraq,” and in July 2005 he published USIP Special Report 142, “Iraq Election Scenarios: Anticipating Alternative Futures.”