CIAO DATE: 03/2014
July 2013
International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
Currently Syrian regime is on the brink of being toppled because it is running out of options and has lost its strategic assets one after another. Therefore Syria is currently standing at a critical crossroads that can define the course of the current struggle going on inside Syria. While many experts maintain that Assad’s unflagging refusal of a political solution and the organized army’s steady retreat from its strategic ranks indicates that the regime will be toppled in the near future, others hold that while the regime is faltering it is still capable of prolonging the war. Important developments have taken place with regards to the Syrian crisis especially in the last two months of 2012 and the beginning of 2013. The most notable among these is the fact that the Syrian opposition has unified both in the political and the military levels. Alongside this the Free Syrian Army has made important advances in the northern and eastern parts of the country while the conflict has reached the center of Assad’s security establishment in Damascus. These events constitute a new and gravely serious reality forcing international and regional powers to reconsider their stance towards the much-neglected Syrian issue. In this context together with the advances of the revolution some countries have started reassessing their stances. For instance Russia and Iran have started to instigate many initiatives together with the United Nations and the Arab League special envoy al-Akhdar al-Ibrahimi in this regard. However these initiatives are premised on Assad resuming his role as the head of state despite the catastrophic massacres and destruction committed by the regime. Furthermore the political and the military wings of the Syrian revolution as well as the majority of the Syrian people refuse such proposals that are premised on Assad staying in power. Taking these into consideration, information with regards to the nature of the conflict inside Syria, the status of the different parties and which side will take the initiative with regards to the conflict bears critical importance. It is also vital to make careful and realistic evaluations of the impact the conflict has on Syria and on the countries in the region.This report aims to create a clearer impression of what is taking place inside Syria through a careful and detailed evaluation aimed for both decision makers and the public at large and as a result assist decision makers in taking more realistic and objective decisions.
Resource link: Towards The Syrian Nightmare? The Critical Situation in Syria and Possible Scenarios [PDF] - 4.5M