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CIAO DATE: 7/99

Sea of Sand, Land of Water: A Synopsis of some Strategic Developmental Issues Confronting the Okavango Delta

A.R. Turton

SOAS Water Issues Study Group
MEWREW Occasional Paper No. 6
1999

School of Oriental and African Studies
University of London

Introduction

Before one can begin to grasp the complexities that confront a developing country in an arid region, one needs to understand that a set of fundamental issues drives this whole process. The purpose of this paper is to try and isolate what the author believes to be some of these fundamental driving forces. The case study that will be used has been carefully selected, as it illustrates these fundamental dynamics in a manner that could be described as being in a near text-book fashion. Botswana is an arid country. It is also a country that has been independent for a relatively short space of time. At independence in 1966 it was one of the poorest countries in the world. Today, some thirty years later, it has a strong and growing economy, a stable multiparty democracy, and it has become one of the only countries in Africa to contribute to the International Monetary Fund. In short, Botswana is an African success story. Yet there is every reason why this should not be the case. The climate is harsh and arid, and the population growth has reached a point where it is beginning to outstrip available water supply. Botswana could have been a failure instead. The question is therefore raised, can Botswana sustain this rate of development or will environmental collapse be its ultimate fate? This paper will explore what the author considers to be six critical strategic issues confronting the Okavango Delta, a 15 000 km2 wetland system, which is the only significant surface water resource available in the otherwise arid country. It will also present the relevant theoretical aspects needed to make an informed analysis of the problems.

 

Background

In order to grasp the developmental complexities confronting an arid state like Botswana, one needs to understand five key hydropolitical facts. These are as follows:

 

Ecological Dynamics of the Delta

Having been introduced to the five key hydropolitical facts that form the background to any understanding of the development-related constraints that confront states in arid regions, it now becomes necessary to gain an understanding of the forces that drive the ecological dynamics of the Okavango Delta. The point of departure for this portion of the paper is based on the rationale that sustainability is the best normative basis for any development-related policy for states in arid regions to adopt because it means living within the constraints that the environment has placed on developmental potential. This notion of sustainability will be expanded on later in the paper. For the moment, it is sufficient to accept that sustainability is a desirable state of affairs, simply because a non-sustainable option will ultimately cause environmental collapse, bringing with it major social implications. There are essentially six major natural forces at work within the Okavango Delta. By understanding how these forces work in dynamic interaction with one another, it is hoped that the non-technical reader will be able to ultimately recognize why it is important to maintain the overall ecological integrity and viability of the Okavango system as a whole. These are as follows:

The Okavango Delta can thus be understood as being the interface between sand and water if one considers these natural forces that are constantly at work. When more water is available, then the Delta expands, pushing back the desert. Conversely, when less water is available the Delta shrinks and the desert encroaches. The author understands the Okavango wetland system as being best described as a sea of sand and a land of water.

 

Theoretical Considerations

Having noted the six major natural forces that drive the ecological dynamics of the Okavango Delta, it now becomes appropriate to focus on some of the theoretical considerations that need to be understood within the context of a discourse on sustainable development. In broad terms, there are four major theoretical considerations. These are:

Theoretical Consideration # 1: Understanding the concept of a ‘threshold’.

A useful scientific contribution comes from Micklin (1994), who did a study of the Aral Sea. As previously noted, the Aral Sea is similar to the Okavango Delta in that both can be regarded as terminal systems. Micklin’s study shows that major economic and ecological consequences emanate due to the long-term abstraction of water from a river basin in an arid region. In this case, the Aral Sea has shrunk from a surface area of 66 900 km2 in 1960, to a projected area of 23 149 km2 by the year 2000. The primary reason for this is that after 1960, irrigation expansion required ever more water per hectare as long unlined canals were extended into the desert, reducing the overall efficiency of the system (Micklin, 1994:115). The results of this have been labeled the second largest ecological disaster in the former Soviet Union after Chernobyl (Micklin, 1994:114). Rodal (1996) notes that “authoritative studies support the view that in significant measure the Soviet Union collapsed because of the way in which it treated the environment”. The policy-makers in Botswana should therefore ensure that the same fate does not befall their citizenry due to poor decision-making at the strategic level.

The environment is therefore important if sustainability is to be achieved. One of the important lessons to be learned from the collapse of the former Soviet Union, is that “special attention needs to be paid to identification of ‘thresholds’—sensitivity points in the operation of a system which, if transgressed by an external disturbing force, cause the system to undergo unexpectedly rapid change” (emphasis added)(Micklin, 1994:121). In other words, aquatic systems tend to be ecologically sensitive in arid regions, and they can suffer abuse up to a point beyond which failure becomes both rapid and catastrophic. Long-term ecological, social and economic problems result. The Aral Sea thus offers a classic case of unsustainable development policies at work. After all, sustainability really means living within the constraints imposed by the environment, ensuring that as much harmony as possible exists between man and his life-support system—the water landscape in which he lives. In other words, if seen this way, it is no longer an issue of man versus the environment, and it becomes rather an issue of understanding man as an integral part of the environment in which he lives.

Because a large portion of the water used for developmental purposes in arid regions is surface water, the question arises as to what the threshold of sustainability is when planning sustainable abstraction of the resource. O’Keeffe et al., (1992: 290) introduce a useful concept known as the ‘inflection point’. This can be used as an indicator of a threshold of sustainability, provided it can be accurately assessed and quantified. In terms of this concept, it is necessary to understand that an aquatic system consists of a number of distinct habitats. Some are more vulnerable than others. For example, riverbanks can survive for a period of time with a low flow regime. The benthic (or bottom) habitat is more sensitive however, and cannot survive for long if allowed to dry out. This is because this habitat contains the eggs, larvae and adult forms of various biota which will simply die if the life sustaining water is removed. This is better illustrated by means of a diagram. Figure 1 shows a cross section through a hypothetical stream showing two levels associated with different flow regimes.

Figure 1. Cross-section of a hypothetical stream showing effects of flow reduction and the corresponding ‘inflection point’ (after O’Keeffe et al., 1992:290).
 
Figure 1

The highest level corresponds with a 100% flow situation. In this condition, the riverbanks are inundated and the biological functioning is ensured. At a low flow condition, representing an arbitrary 30% of full flow, it can be seen that although a large volume of water has been removed, relatively small portions of the respective riverbanks are exposed. The sensitive benthic habitat is still protected under these reduced flow conditions, meaning that the biological activities within that habitat are still functioning in a sustainable manner. Additional abstraction of water below this level will expose progressively larger areas of the benthic habitat, thereby reducing the sustainability of the ecosystem. This can be regarded as the ‘inflection point’ as illustrated on the corresponding graph. An important aspect to note in terms of this thinking is that for sustainability to be maintained as a policy position, abstraction must be controlled. A critical component of this is the normative acceptance that the ecosystem concerned is a legitimate consumer of its own water and should be granted protection of this fact as a right. This should then be built into the operating rules for impoundments. This enables development to occur in a sustainable way, as the environmental integrity of the overall water landscape is not compromised in the process.

The significance of the concept of the ‘inflection point’ becomes apparent when considering a cross-section of the Okavango River. Smith (1976:93) offers an illustration of a typical profile of the Cubango River in the “Miombo Zone” which is presented as Figure 2.

Figure 2. Idealized profile of typical bank vegetation of the Cubango River in the “Miombo Zone” of the Okavango Basin excluding woody species (after Smith, 1976:93).
 
Figure2

The Cubango River is in the upper reaches of the Okavango Basin in Angola. The Cubango River becomes the Okavango River further downstream. The two rivers are essentially the same with different names in different countries. From Figure 2 it is evident that by reducing the flow below the low water level for prolonged periods of time, due to excessive abstraction of water, the riparian habitat would be destroyed. This would mean that subsequent flooding would damage the unprotected banks, resulting in bank scouring, erosion and excessive downstream siltation. It should also be noted that the profile of the river corresponds markedly with that presented in Figure 1.

Sustainability is thus an important policy-related issue for states in arid regions. In order for sustainability to occur however, attention needs to be paid to the concept of the ‘inflection point’ as this provides the policy-maker with a parameter against which the overall management of the ecosystem can be measured. If this is incorporated into a set of operating rules, say for dam management in the upper Okavango Basin, then environmental degradation can be reduced and sustainability can be ensured. This means that the Instream Flow Requirements (IFR) need to be quantified and this data subsequently used as a management parameter if sustainability is to be realistically attained. Current experiences in South Africa show that this is initially a technically complex but ultimately necessary process.

Theoretical Consideration # 2: Understanding the ‘water landscape’ and the dynamic relationships between ‘population’, the ‘environment’ and ‘development’ within that landscape.

In arid regions the environment is usually more fragile and thus easily prone to catastrophic degradation. This needs to be understood by policy-makers and analysts alike. Falkenmark (1994) best illustrates this point by way of a model, which links three critical variables; the environment, population growth and development. This is presented as Figure 3.

Falkenmark (1994:10) notes that there has been an, “almost complete conspiracy of silence in the international arena regarding a closely related form of environmental scarcity: the population-driven scarcity of freshwater”. In terms of this, it is necessary to address the linkages between drought and desertification. It is also necessary to begin to estimate the major threat in the area of water shortage that is emerging from the unavoidable population growth related to mothers that are already born. To this end, land degradation and desertification have been major driving forces behind the displacement of people. One classic example from the last century was the famine and hardship-driven Irish migration to North America. In this century, Africa has witnessed a number of drought-driven migrations to neighboring countries (Falkenmark, 1994:11). Inter-state migration tends to be triggered by droughts. An example is the almost continuous movement of people in the ‘hunger crescent’ through the semi-arid sub-Saharan Africa. This is significant for Botswana, as it is a relatively wealthy country that can easily be targeted by economic or environmental refugees in future.

For this reason, it is increasingly important for inter-disciplinary research to be done in order to understand the complexities of the problem. In an attempt to stimulate this inter- disciplinary research, it is necessary to understand the concept of the ‘landscape’ as a life-support provider. To this end, development takes place by means of the interaction of two worlds:

Falkenmark (1994:12) notes in this regard:

“The word used for the landscape reality has been “environment”. In the past, the diagnosis of the population-environment-development dilemma has suffered from fundamental perception problems. The literature tends to draw attention to linkages and to linkages between linkages, rather than to make a systems analysis. Even studies of global food supply tend to be crude and simplistic. The relations between environment, development and population have been discussed as triangular linkages, with the complications that follow from the fact that the linkages are also mutually linked.

Even if the environment-development-population linkages could in the past be discussed in terms of correlations and regressions with quantifications based on earlier observations, this will not be true for the linkages of the near future. The reason is simple: since things change with time in all three realms, rather than thinking of a static triangular linkage relationship, it is preferable to think in terms of a spiral along the time axis.”

Figure 3. Time-driven spiral symbolizing the changing relations between Population (P), the Environment (E) and Development (D) (after Falkenmark, 1994:12).
 
Figure 3

Falkenmark’s model shows that as the ‘population’ (P) grows, there is a corresponding need for a larger population-supporting capacity, otherwise known as ‘development’ (D). In order to meet these new demands, the ‘environment’ (E) starts to deteriorate. This in turn reduces the population-supporting capacity of that environment. This model thus shows the increasing risk of conflict and competition as time passes, whilst bringing the reduced environmental capacity to respond to the increasing demands into the equation. This is particularly useful for understanding the socio-political dimension presented in arid-region developing countries that face a rapid population growth. Arid-region environments are particularly susceptible as their ability to “bounce back” is greatly reduced as a result of the prevailing limitation caused by low precipitation levels, making this model all the more valuable as a conceptual tool. This again reinforces the need to be able to identify ‘thresholds’, as the gradual transition from one condition to another set of conditions could lead to sudden dramatic and catastrophic changes in the life-support provider—the water landscape.

Prevailing hydroclimatic conditions pose finite constraints on the population-supporting capacity of rainfed agriculture, as well as the vulnerability of soils in terms of the propensity towards crust formation and erodibility (Falkenmark, 1994:13). This is highly relevant in the Kalahari, specifically in the grasslands around the Okavango Swamps. The aridity of a region and consequently the biomass productive capability of that region, is a function of the following finite factors:

Sound development requires an integrated strategy on a catchment basis (Falkenmark & Lindh, 1993:89). How then can this be achieved, in a region where states are relatively newly independent and are consequently somewhat jealous of their sovereign integrity? (Turton, 1999a).

Theoretical Consideration # 3: Understanding the concept of ‘blue water’ and ‘green water’ and their dynamic interaction within the ‘landscape’, specifically regarding the policy relevance thereof.

In terms of the productive functions of water, Falkenmark (1994:13) introduces two useful new concepts:

Thus the concept of ‘environmental scarcity’ needs to be better understood (Falkenmark, 1994:13). Crudely put, the term ‘environment’ means the system that surrounds human beings. The problem with this simplistic understanding is that when the scale of human population and use increases, the concept of ‘environment’ becomes vague to the point of becoming meaningless. It is more useful then to think of the concept in terms of the biophysical system that provides the human population with its life support. The ‘landscape’ is then seen as the life support provider through its functions of hosting the natural resources and processes on which sustainable development depend.

Taking this one step further, it can be said that where there is no more water, people simply cannot survive and they have to leave. This was dramatically illustrated in recent times by the risk of evacuation of Bulawayo (Zimbabwe) during the 1992 drought (Falkenmark, 1994:14). Water availability was so scarce at that time, that the sewers even stopped functioning, necessitating a co-ordinated peak flow situation daily. This was done by means of communicating over public radio that at a given time each day, toilets had to be flushed. This enabled a peak flow to be artificially generated, which flushed out the sewers daily, thereby preventing a total collapse of the system with potential health risks.

Figure 4. The water landscape showing that water availability in the landscape determines both the productive capacity and negative side effects of water use (after Falkenmark & Lindh, 1993:88).
 
Figure 4

Another aspect related to water as an economic developmental inhibitor is that which is broadly referred to as ‘desertification’. This concept, which is linked to soil fertility and the resultant productive capacity of that resource, is somewhat confusing and therefore in need of conceptual clarification. This is relevant to a deeper understanding of the overall significance of the Okavango Delta as a vital ecosystem within Botswana.

Falkenmark (1994:15) notes that ‘desertification’ basically refers to the loss of soil fertility resulting from a whole set of causal factors. These are loss of fertility manifested as a:

From this, it can be seen that only one aspect of deficient soil productivity is the shortage of soil water. This shortage simply impedes crop growth because there is insufficient water available in the root zone (’green water’) to meet the biomass creating demand. This soil-water deficiency is caused in two ways (Falkenmark, 1994:15):

Both of these causal factors, when combined with drought, result in local deficiencies in soil productivity resulting directly from the shortage of ‘green water’ needed by plant life to photosynthesize. Thus ‘soil desiccation’ is only one manifestation of ‘water scarcity’. Droughts, on the other hand, are more intense in regions that experience lower precipitation levels, and different modes of ‘water scarcity’ tend to appear in parallel (Falkenmark, 1994:16). The hunger crescent in Africa is thus characterized by:

Thus we have the situation where in arid regions, prevailing environmental preconditions become problematic for human activities, where large parts are characterized by precipitation which is either too erratic, or too limited, to allow for the full development of crops during the short wet season. This results in the extreme vulnerability to crop failure as a normal condition. Conceptually speaking, this multiple environmental vulnerability can be expressed as (Falkenmark, 1994:16):

In other words, in arid regions, a whole set of water scarcity modes can be identified, each impacting negatively on the overall economic developmental capacity of the state. Falkenmark (1994:18) identifies four major water scarcity modes that impact on economic activities. These are:

A model can be generated from the understanding of the above water-scarcity modes. This is presented as Figure 5. The main threats that develop as a combined effect of the four parallel forms of environmental vulnerability are shown as boxes in the illustration.

Figure 5. Falkenmark’s model showing the main threats which develop as a result of the combined effect of the four modes of water-scarcity (Falkenmark, 1994:20).
 
Figure 5

The first two types, Modes “A” and “B” are climate-related and should be referred to as problematic environmental preconditions. The third, Mode “C”, is the result of vulnerable soils, and is exacerbated by rapidly increasing population pressures within an environmentally sensitive landscape. The last, Mode “D”, is a population-driven scarcity and as such will escalate in direct proportion to the number of new persons needing to exist off the available water within the given landscape. Modes “C” and “D” are particularly relevant to the Okavango Delta. This again illustrates the usefulness of the concept of a ‘threshold’ beyond which sustainability is no longer possible, because if the threshold can be adequately identified before being crossed, the problem can be managed proactively.

Today, Modes “A”, “B” and “C” are a common combination over large portions of sub- Saharan Africa and India, accounting for the declining food productivity levels that are evident. In this context, the main risk to society is related to crop failure, which in turn is exacerbated as land desiccation proceeds (Falkenmark, 1994:18). This is what is often loosely referred to as ‘desertification’, which can be said to exist currently over large parts of the Kalahari, due in this specific case to cattle ranching. This in turn is placing pressure on the Okavango Delta, which is seen to be the last remaining source of fertility and potential prosperity in an otherwise harsh environment.

Theoretical Consideration # 4: Understanding the hydropolitical relevance of riparian position within an overall river basin configuration.

A state may receive its total water available from a number of sources. These consist of:

Thus, in hydropolitical terms, an important variable is that relating to the relative riparian position of a given state within an international river basin. This is in keeping with Buzan’s view (1991:242) that a state needs access to the means necessary for their survival. This is illustrated by the fact that a component of the overall water available to any given downstream riparian state is that portion referred to as the ‘exogenous’ supply, which originates in or flows through an upstream riparian state. Because the downstream riparian is largely at the mercy of the higher order upstream riparian state, both in terms of quantity of water consumed by the upstream user, and in terms of the quality of the water left for the lower order riparian to use, there is an inherent conflict generating capacity that is directly linked to this relative spatial position. This is pertinent to an understanding of the overall hydropolitical dynamics of the Okavango Basin.

In this regard, Lowi (1990:377-8) notes that the factor that will almost always invariably lead states to seek technical cooperative arrangements (at the international level), is that of acute need for water resources and/or dependence on a specific shared body of water. The failure to establish a water-sharing regime would threaten the continued survival of the state concerned. This is the situation that Botswana finds itself in at present regarding the Okavango Basin. The opposite also holds true, according to Lowi (1990:379). If a riparian state is not in need of access to the water supply, or if it has a higher order riparian position within a given basin, it will have little, if any, incentive to enter a basin wide regime. This is the situation that is applicable to Angola (and in certain circumstances Namibia) regarding the Okavango Basin. In this case the upstream riparians will have to either be coerced, or induced, into co-operating. Riparian position thus has a fundamental impact on the policy options available to states in arid regions.

Within the context of the Okavango Basin, Botswana is arguably the most vulnerable state. Botswana would thus be expected to establish and maintain a basin-wide regime. Namibia on the other hand would probably stay within a regime if they benefited directly as a result, but would likely move outside of that regime if it restricted what Namibia perceived their strategic options to be. Angola would have the least to gain from participating in a basin-wide regime, but could use this position of hydropolitical strength to negotiate favorable conditions for itself that may not be directly related to the Okavango Basin.

Falkenmark (1994:22) notes that the two sources of ‘blue water’ (endogenous and exogenous) may exist in different combinations expressed in terms of their sources of origin. Table 1 is a matrix showing the effect that various combinations of exogenous and endogenous water can have on the overall problems that prevail. Typical problem patterns vary according to the position on the matrix. Water scarcity problems relating to both ‘green water’ and ‘blue water’ uses are at their largest in the top left corner (square 1). Upstream/downstream rivalry is at its most pronounced in the top right position (square 3), which is where both Botswana and Namibia are located.

Table 1. Matrix showing the different combinations of water supply as a function of endogenous and exogenous water and the resultant effect on conflict generating capacity (after Falkenmark, 1994:23).
 
Table 1

Besides more direct water scarcity manifestations, a range of controversial problems arise, driven by the need of a society to mobilize increasing amounts of water (Falkenmark, 1994:23). There are two broad types of problems envisaged:

Table 2 is a matrix showing various types of conflict or controversy that can be expected to arise from a given combination of endogenous and exogenous water supplies.

Table 2. Examples of different categories of water disputes for different positions on the matrix in Table 1.
 
Table 2

Falkenmark (1994:25) notes that a seldom-discussed mode of water competition is the ‘green’/’blue’ competition. This is likely to arise in relation to the demand for an increase in biomass production as the result of population growth. In other words, policy options will be increasingly politicized as they will entail a hard choice between biomass production, which will return ‘green water’ to the atmosphere and thus be lost to the overall water availability, and ‘blue water’ production which depends on the rainwater surplus left to feed aquifers and rivers. Examples of this can be found in Australia, where the city of Melbourne wants the forestry industry to accept longer rotation periods in order to reduce ‘green water’ consumption, thus leaving more ‘blue water’ available to the city. A Southern African example is the dispute between Swaziland and South Africa. Swaziland, the downstream riparian, is asking South Africa (the higher order riparian) to limit the ‘green water’ consumption resulting from commercial agriculture and forestry, which is reducing the flow of water available downstream. In the Middle East an example is the conflict over access to the aquifers beneath the West Bank, where the issue is basically the sharing of water for Palestinian biomass production, versus the supply of water to the coastal cities of Israel (Falkenmark, 1994:26).

Competition between urban and rural areas is referred to as being “project related” in Table 2. This is driven by the expansion of the urban environment in many arid zone states due to rapid industrialization. This introduces conflicts between the city activities and competing water needs in the rural areas. The proposed Popa Rapids hydropower scheme being planned by Namibia will probably fall into this “project related” category, as the choice of project is possibly the least environmentally sound.

Botswana has 94 % of its total surface water supply originating outside its borders (Gleick, 1993:108) placing it on a par with Egypt that obtains 97% exogenously. This makes Botswana extremely vulnerable to the actions of higher order upstream riparian states. In certain river basins, such as the Okavango, Botswana is in a low order riparian position relative to Angola and Namibia. In the Limpopo Basin, Botswana is an upstream riparian relative to South Africa. In the Zambezi Basin, Botswana has only limited access to the basin, but is in an upstream position relative to Zimbabwe. These factors dictate the overall policy options open to Botswana at a strategic level. This is why Botswana is such a valuable hydropolitical case study as it illustrates various combinations of conditions. Zimbabwe on the other hand, is a lower order riparian to Botswana on both the Limpopo and Zambezi Basins.

 

Six Strategic Developmental Issues

Having noted the four major policy-related theoretical considerations that apply to states in arid regions, it now becomes possible to view the six major strategic developmental issues that the author believes currently confront the integrity of the Okavango Delta. Significantly, three of these strategic issues (1-3) are located upstream of Botswana, away from the direct control of that state. This provides a classic illustration of key hydropolitical principles. Two of them are directly applicable to Botswana (issues 4 & 5) whereas issue 6 is relevant to the entire basin in general, but also to the Okavango Delta in particular.

Strategic Developmental Issue # 1: The first long-term strategic issue is related to the development of Angola. As has been shown in terms of hydropolitical theory, the upstream riparian state is in a strong position as it controls the headwaters of an international drainage basin. Angola has been in a state of civil war for a number of decades. While this has been devastating in both human and economic development terms, it has meant that the headwaters of the Okavango Basin have remained relatively undeveloped and near pristine. Ironically, the peace dividend in Angola will probably have three major downstream impacts. These are:

Strategic Developmental Issue # 2: Namibia is an extremely arid country, similar in many respects to Botswana. One of the only permanent rivers that traverse Namibian soil with any degree of reliability is the Okavango. There is a plan to construct a pipeline from the Okavango River at Rundu to supply water into the Eastern National Water Carrier (ENWC) at Grootfontein. The initial planning is to abstract 20 million m3/ yr-1, which corresponds to about 0,2% of the mean annual flow (Ramberg, 1997b:129). This level of abstraction is planned to triple by the year 2003 (Turton, 1998a:185). A 250km pipeline is being developed that will link the Okavango to Grootfontein, where it will join the existing link to Windhoek provided by the ENWC. Namibia is reported as being, “determined to go ahead with the pipeline”, threatening to take the matter to the ICJ for a ruling on their legal riparian abstraction rights if necessary (Electronic Mail & Guardian, 28 January 1997).

Strategic Developmental Issue # 3: As noted above, Namibia is both an upstream riparian state and extremely water scarce. The Namibian Government have announced their intention of developing a hydroelectric capability at the Popa Rapids (Ramberg, 1997a). This will result in two specific impacts that need to be considered.

Strategic Developmental Issue # 4: Botswana is also facing a combination of severe water shortage in conjunction with population pressure. This is a near-classic example of Mode “D” water-scarcity as conceptualized by Falkenmark and presented in Figure 5. One area where a reasonably large human population exists is along the panhandle. While little has yet appeared in the form of written scientific material, it is known that Botswana has plans to abstract water along the panhandle. This was made evident to the author during a recent fieldtrip to Botswana. Two known pipelines are in the conceptualization phase at present. These originate at the villages of Sepopa and Mohembo. These pumping facilities are being designed to feed water via pipeline to various settlements south west of the panhandle. It must be noted however that the Botswana Department of Water Affairs (DWA) is not yet committed to this project at the time of writing. It is simply an option that is currently being considered and it may still be rejected for strategic reasons. There are three probable consequences of this if the planning is to be implemented. These are:

There are also plans to abstract water from downstream of the Delta. It was noted (Ramberg, 1998) that any down-stream abstraction is not likely to be problematic in ecological terms, and will not affect the overall sustainability of the Delta. The author has noted the following three aspects that need to be individually highlighted however.

Strategic Developmental Issue # 5: One of the major sources of wealth in Botswana is derived from cattle ranching. This is placing heavy pressure on the environment.

Strategic Developmental Issue # 6: Human encroachment is an inevitable result of the increase in population in the face of water scarcity. This can be understood as being an example of one of the dynamics of Mode “D” water-scarcity at work. Within the Delta region, this has placed considerable pressure on the margins of the seasonal wetlands. The most important natural resources that result from a human use perspective are wildlife, fish, reeds, thatching grass, trees, veld products (tubers etc) and tourism (Ramberg, 1997a). The planned abstraction of water upstream is likely to result in the following dual dynamic:

With growing demands on a marginal environment, recurring droughts become increasingly severe in their impact (Mode “B” water scarcity). The risk of a more permanent desertification in parts of the Kalahari (Mode “C” water-scarcity) is thus a very real one (Cooke, 1985:82). This can be regarded as being a population-push factor. Thus the provision of secure water will become a population-pull factor, and the migration of people can be realistically expected as a direct result. The significance of this can be best understood in terms of a major drought scenario. Under such conditions, the permanent settlements will be under pressure of water shortages because of the drought. They will then suddenly become the focal point for migrants, stimulating the demand curve beyond the capability of the system to supply. Catastrophic failure of the ecosystem will therefore result and a significant ‘threshold’ will have been crossed, probably forever. The strategic significance of understanding ‘thresholds’ is thus abundantly apparent yet again.

 

Current State of Play

Having noted the significance of theoretical models and concepts to the overall development debate, specifically how these apply to the six strategic developmental issues that have been highlighted, it now becomes necessary to discuss what the current state of play is before determining what solutions are available. In the opinion of the author, there are three major factors that serve as useful indicators of the way things currently stand within the case study area. These are:

Factor # 1: As a result of the fact that Namibia has announced its intention of developing the Okavango Pipeline, the government of Botswana tried to counteract these plans by applying to UNESCO to have the Okavango Delta declared a Ramsar Site , thereby hoping to increase the international pressure on Namibia (Ramberg, 1997b). Whilst this may be regarded as a resounding victory for conservationists, it may also have resulted in the fact that Botswana has effectively limited its own strategic options in the process. In reality, this is a classic example of being both a double-edged sword as well as a subtle but significant ‘threshold’.

Factor # 2: Against this background, there are grave doubts that OKACOM is failing (Ramberg, 1997b). Within the OKACOM configuration, the hydropolitical aspects that have been raised under the discussion on theoretical considerations can be used to plot the likely courses of action that each of the actors will take.

In short, OKACOM is set to become the forum for some fairly intense hydropolitical interaction in future. By documenting these events as they happen, a valuable insight into the hydropolitical dynamics between states in arid regions will result in the opinion of the author.

Factor # 3: The current pattern of conflict dynamics in the Okavango Basin is based on the zero-sum principle. This means that the conflict potential is likely to be extremely high as it is based on a fundamental dynamic of win-lose. An important aspect of this zero-sum paradigm is the fact that it is closely linked with the perceptions that each decision-maker may have. There is thus a clear-cut distinction that needs to be made between realities and perceptions of those realities. In fact, a careful analysis of potential benefits versus potential costs for each of the role-players may even reveal that the prevailing paradigm is that of a lose-lose configuration. This in fact may even be the best strategy open to Botswana as the most needy actor in the overall configuration. By convincing the other actors that their actions are actually being detrimental to themselves, a more cooperative spirit could be generated. This could result in a paradigm shift from a win-lose model to that of a more cooperative win-win approach. This will take time and effort to achieve.

In summary, the prevailing win-lose paradigm will have to change to one of win-win if OKACOM is ever going to succeed. This will take time and effort, with communication playing a crucial role.

 

Solutions

Having noted the overall factors, issues, theoretical considerations and dynamics that prevail in the Okavango Basin, it now becomes possible to suggest four solutions to the problems.

Solution # 1: Because one of the underlying features of the overall Okavango problem is related to competition over ever decreasing resources, it becomes abundantly clear that an effective multilateral structure needs to exist. There are two aspects that are relevant. These are mutually supportive of one another.

The best way to reestablish OKACOM is probably by means of diplomatic interchange at a level higher than the technical working group in the opinion of the author. It cannot only be left to technical commissions as preliminary research that has been conducted by the author suggests that “there is an underlying fear that River Basin Commissions may eventually erode the sovereignty of the state, so officials do not allow cooperation to develop to a level beyond the minimum that is absolutely necessary” (Turton, 1999b). As already noted, communication will play an important role in this regard, creating the right climate for the diplomatic interchange by empowering the decision-makers with the relevant knowledge that they will need in order to be effective.

Solution # 2: As has been noted above, there is a prevailing zero-sum paradigm in existence. Because this is inherently conflictual in nature, there is a need to change this to a cooperative approach based on the benefits of win-win principles. This takes time as it is based at least in part on prevailing human attitudes.

The long-term objective of this whole series of interactions is to change the prevailing paradigm to a cooperative one. This has lower conflict potential and increases the regional security by offering guarantees to all of the participants. While each actor may not get exactly what they feel they want, in the final analysis they can probably get what they effectively need for survival in the process.

Solution # 3: There is an overarching need to begin to balance the developmental aspirations of each state against the realistic developmental potential of those states. The operative word in this regard is “balance”. This is needed between the following:

Figure 6. Schematic representation of the actual root causes of the water-scarcity problem and consequent solutions that ought to be considered by policy-makers in developing states within arid-regions (Turton, 1998a:258; 1998b).
 
Figure 6

Previous research that has been done by the author shows that water scarcity is not the actual problem, but is rather the manifestation of the interaction between three specific root causes (Turton, 1998a:258; 1998b). These root causes are environmental change, population growth and the allocation of water within an economy to specific sectoral uses. In this regard, the author has suggested the linkage of policy to effectively deal with this expanded view of water-scarcity in arid regions as shown in Figure 6. In fact, if population growth was under control, it could be argued that there is no water shortage in Botswana, and that the existing scarcities could be managed by a combination of water demand strategies and improved sectoral allocation within the economy.

Solution # 4: Capacity building is an obvious solution. Leif Ohlsson (1998; 1999) has done some pioneering work in this regard. It is the inability of developing states to innovate in the face of complex challenges, which causes them to fail (Barbier & Homer- Dixon, 1996). It has been shown that there are many aspects to the capacity of states, which manifests when that state tries to deal with water scarcity (Turton, 1999d). This is relevant for most of the states in the Okavango Basin, albeit in varying degrees.

 

Research Needs

From the preceding discussion it becomes evident that there is a pressing need for well- coordinated applied research. The following are areas that would be beneficial in the opinion of the author:

 

Conclusion

This paper has been an attempt to produce a comprehensive document that illustrates the relevance of water within the context of a developing state in an arid region. Suggestions have been made for additional research and the development of relevant intellectual capacity. The material that has been presented suggests that if the ecosystem fails, then it is catastrophic for all of those people that depend on the ecosystem for survival. A valuable lesson can be learned from the Aral Sea in this regard. Botswana has been a highly successful state within an African context. Yet this success could be short-lived unless some really critical strategic issues are adequately addressed. This will require decision-makers that are farsighted and visionary. They will have to be empowered to make the correct decisions by scientists and specialists, probably working in multidisciplinary teams. Crucial to the success of this, will be the fact that a paradigm shift needs to be made away from the existing national interest base towards a more cooperative regional approach. The important aspect to note however is the fact that sustainability means, in its most basic form, that development must take place within the constraints that the environment has posed. This can be achieved once man realizes that he cannot stand alone from the environment, and accepts that he is an integral part of the overall water landscape. In short, it involves a fundamental shift away from the “wild- west” notion of ever expanding boundaries (Wilson, 1998), to the new political economy of the spaceship earth with its life-support provider, the water landscape.

 

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