Columbia International Affairs Online: Working Papers

CIAO DATE: 11/2009

The Economic Outlook for London

October 2009

Oxford Economics

Abstract

The recession, which had its origins in the global financial crisis that began to unfold in mid-2007, has hit London's economy hard. And in the face of ongoing financial sector constraints, a debt overhang and rising unemployment, a strong bounce - of the kind seen in the wake of the early 1990s recession - cannot be realistically expected in the short term. Nevertheless, Oxford Economics' forecasts show the recovery in the capital gaining traction by 2011, with growth into the medium term matching the robust performance of the decade prior to the recession. We expect growth over the period 2011-2019 to outstrip that of the rest of the UK and of most comparable cities across the western world.