Columbia International Affairs Online: Working Papers

CIAO DATE: 11/2009

OEF Commentary on Avian Flu

January 2009

Oxford Economics

Abstract

OEF has regularly provided scenario assessments of the economic impact of a wide range of risks to the global outlook from financial market volatility to banking crises to country studies to threats arising from less economy-based disturbances such as earthquake damage and the impact of health scares like the UK’s foot and mouth outbreak and Asia’s SARS attack of 2003. We began monitoring the avian flu outbreak in Asia in 2004 and have examined the possible consequences of a human flu pandemic. Clearly, the threat of a human flu variant developing from Avian flu is now serious and such a flu virus could pose a severe risk to human life. Even compared to previous scenario experience, the potential impact of a pandemic flu appears massive, should it occur in a virulent form. There are several key features of the economic scenarios that are worth highlighting especially as they may not be well covered in healthcare industry analysis. This commentary provides some indication of current analysis and the risk assessments made by OEF.