Columbia International Affairs Online: Working Papers

CIAO DATE: 07/2012

Innovation, Absorptive Capacity and Complexity along Development Stages

Fulvio Castellacci, Jose Miguel Natera

April 2012

Norwegian Institute of International Affairs

Abstract

The paper presents an empirical analysis of the time series properties of Schumpeterian multiple equilibria models. It considers a panel of 116 countries over the period 1980-2008, and makes use of panel cointegration analysis and Granger causality tests to identify the set of dynamic relationships linking together innovation, absorptive capacity and economic growth in different country clubs. The results provide general support for this class of models and show that absorptive capacity and innovation progressively become more important engines of growth as the development process unfolds over time. Relatedly, the complexity of the economic system (measured by the number of significant Granger causal relationships driving economic growth) increases as we move from the less-developed, to the middle-income and then to the advanced country clubs.