CIAO DATE: 01/2013
January 2013
Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre
With two years left before the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan completes its mission, Afghans are in a state of confusion and uncertainty about their individual prospects and their country’s fate. Interviews with a wide range of government and opposition politicians, civil society activists and ordinary Afghans reveal disappointment with the results of 11 years of foreign involvement, and anxiety that the coming years will bring economic hardship and greater political violence and insecurity. With few exceptions, Afghans are united in the belief that the Taliban will be unable to capture Kabul by force after foreign troops depart. However, most also believe that the Taliban and other insurgent groups will take control of large parts of the countryside, leaving Afghanistan in a fragile divide between the cities and the rural areas. Foreign non-governmental organisations will have to decide whether to work in Taliban areas or abandon them. Many Afghans fear a resumption of violence between elite groups in Kabul, as happened in the 1990s. They see a breakdown in central government and a move towards regionalisation of power. This could happen, even ahead of the departure of foreign forces at the end of 2014, if the elections due in April 2014 are tainted by charges of fraud or indefinitely postponed. To reduce this risk, leading Afghan politicians want a significant number of U.S. troops to remain after 2014 as a deterrent to internal political players and their foreign supporters.
Resource link: On the eve: Afghan views of the future as foreign forces withdraw [PDF] - 352K