CIAO DATE: 09/2012
February 2012
Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre
The debate about the Iranian nuclear programme has heated up over recent months, with the danger that the situation could get out of control and violence may erupt. Currently, the main threatis an escalation of violence between Iran and the U.S. Strategically, an attack will further decrease U.S. legitimacy in a region already in turmoil and will isolate Israel even further. The consequencesof these processes are both serious and unpredictable. In this climate, negotiations are more important than ever. The basic point of entry is that Iran wants to pursue its nuclear programme, while Israel, the U.S., Europe and other countries in the Middle East want to ensure that Teheran will not develop a military nuclear programme. While several proposals have been put forward to create a negotiation framework, key political interests go beyond the technical aspects of a possible agreement. Israel and the U.S. reject the idea that Iran should have a nuclear programme at all. This is a non-starter for any negotiation with Teheran, which sees having a nuclear capacity as a symbol of power and national identity. Iran, with its rich history and religious tradition, wants to be treated as regional power, not a pariah state that deserves sanctions. The U.S. and Europe should recognise the needs of both Iran and Israel in a regional security framework. Such a framework should be based on a recognition of the Iranian revolution; an acceptance of the Shia way of organising religion; an acceptance of Iran’s role in the region and the country’s reincorporation into the international community; a transparent Iranian nuclear programme without nuclear weapons; the lifting of sanctions; full security and recognition for Israel; no support for any kind of terrorism; and world access to the region’s oil and gas. Iran and the U.S. want stability in Iraq, Afghanistan and the region; Israel, Iran, the U.S. and Europe want stability in the transitions in the Arab world. Multilateral formulas to allow Iran to develop its civil nuclear programme can be explored with the IAEA and with the co-operation of third countries.
Resource link: Iranian nuclear weapons: a self-fulfilling prophecy? [PDF] - 378K