CIAO DATE: 05/2008
November 2002
Austrian National Defence Academy
PREFACE
Some Considerations about "Stability" in South East Europe
1. The Issue of Stability
Some methodological considerations are necessary to the clarification
of the term "stability" before the topic of the stability process and
regional co-operation can be tackled. "Stability" is a key term for
South East Europe both for the local as well as for the international
actors engaged in the Western Balkans. It is however, doubtful, if all
relevant actors have the same concept in mind when they use the term
"stability".
One has to differentiate between an inner and an outer dimension of
regional stability in South East Europe: the concept of inner dimension
is rooted in the region itself, in other words in the kind of relations
between the regional actors. The outer dimension concerns the statal
surroundings of the Western Balkans and the relevant international
actors engaged in the region.
Connected to the inner dimension of regional stability, stability means
at least a "negative peace". There is no more fighting, and the
preconditions are being established that will prevent new the outbreak
of violence. The "negative peace", however, is but the lower end of the
stability scale. One might ask the question if this status of "negative
peace" and the conditions it sets have been reached at all, if for
example the breaking out of renewed fighting in Bosnia-Herzegovina or
in the Kosovo can only be prevented through the presence of
international peace forces.
High stability, on the other side, implies a "positive peace". This
term does not only imply the lack of violent conflicts, but also the
establishment of partnership-like and co-operative relations between
the actors.
With relations to the outer dimension of stability in the Western
Balkans, stability signifies for the statal surroundings that there are
no negative spill-over effects form coming from the region; for the
international actors engaged in the region, it implies that there is no
more need for up keeping a military presence in the region in order to
prevent further fights. High stability as seen from this outer
perspective would, however, mean the initiation of a self-sustaining
peace process which allows external actors to use chances and
opportunities within the region, above all economical ones.
2. The Stability Pact - a Comprehensive Concept of Stabilisation
The fact that in order to reach a high level of stability, "negative
peace" - the absence of war and violent conflicts - does not suffice by
itself, but requires a rather high profile for the stabilisation
instruments. The structure of the Stability Pact for South East Europe
seems to meet these requirements.
Its comprehensive structure with the three key issues of "Economy",
"Democracy" and "Human Rights" as well as Security attempts to set
initiatives for regional co-operation. Through this comprehensive and
regional outline, the Stability Pact is set off from the former
concepts of conflict management in the Balkans, which often
concentrated on pacifying conflicts. One outstanding example for such
an early conflict management oriented towards pacifying is without
doubt the Dayton Agreement for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
3. Possible Deficits of the Stability Pact
The Stability Pact, which found its sources in the Kosovo conflict, can
be regarded as a new form of conflict management in the Western
Balkans, as it strives for a high level of stability through regional
cooperation and does not stop at preventing wars. Positive as these
ideas may appear, there are two central issues open, which raise doubts
regarding the chances to reach the aim of stability:
The first issue concerns the internal balance between the three
respective subparts of the Stability Pact - Economy, Democracy and
Human Rights as well as Security - and the possibility of overemphasis
on one or the other. There are a number of interesting questions in
this respect, such as if the solution for all security questions within
the region is a precondition for economic co-operation or if an the
other hand improved economic relations will help in solving the open
security issues.
Closely connected to this issue is the other question: can regional
cooperation work, as long as conflicts of order policy between the
regional actors have not been solved and the stately reconfiguration in
the Western Balkans has not come to an end? To take a concrete example
from the region: it is difficult to imagine that Serbia and Albania
will take up close economic relations as long as the status of Kosovo
has not been decided.
Moreover, even between countries accepted by international law, like
the Union between Serbia and Montenegro or Bosnia and Herzegovina,
conflicts of order policy pose a problem for internal co-operation.
Take for example the inner-bosnian conflict over a strengthening or
weakening of the joint state of Bosnia-Herzegovina; the different
concepts of order policy issued by Belgrade or Podgorica or the moves
towards autonomy in Sandzak by the Bosniaks and in the Serb region of
Vojvodina.
An external observer is bound to have the impression that the
International Community - and here especially the European Union - is
betting on provisional concepts regarding problems of unsolved order
policy. To put it - admittedly a little bit - provocative: the
International Community seems to hope that through economic
modernisation and regional economic co-operation, the regional actors
might forget about their unsolved problems of order policy.
The Stability Pact as the main and most important instrument of the
Common Foreign and Security Policy of the European Union in South East
Europe also seems to concentrate an economic projects and rate
questions of security at a lower level.
4. The Role of the Stability Pact in the Integration into Euro -Atlantic Structures
The Stability Pact is - above all - an initiative by the European
Union. The European Union considers regional co-operation as an
important precondition of the countries from the Western Balkans for a
future membership in the Union. But also the North Atlantic Treaty
Organisation is not prepared to accept countries from the Western
Balkans as long as the region has not established a system of
cooperative security. It can be deducted that through this
conditioning, the European Union and NATO follow the strategy that only
those countries will be able to co-operation within a larger political
or security-political cooperation, which have proven their ability in
their own, regional surroundings.
In some countries in the Western Balkans, like Croatia, one can sense
some mistrust by parts of the population against the concepts of
regional integration of the European Union and thus against the
Stability Pact. These critics claim that the Stability Pact has a final
goal that outreaches regional co-operation: namely political
integration of the Western Balkans. Behind this criticism one detects
the fear that the national sovereignty gained in the wars might have to
be given up again.
Even if this criticism does not withstand an objective consideration,
it might after all be an indication that the aims and goals of the
International Community in South East Europe are not always that clear
and easy to understand to the actors in the region. But even the
European Union might be troubled by some doubts regarding the actual
transmission of the concept of regional co-operation: this can be
proven through the fact that next to the structures of the stability
pact, the countries of the Western Balkans also have the possibility to
choose individual treaties of association and stabilisation. These
treaties enable those countries of the Western Balkans that have seen a
faster progress in the political and economic reform process to choose
earlier approaches to the European Union.
Predrag Jurekoviæ
Bureau for Security Policy at the
Federal Ministry of Defence, Vienna
Resource link: The Stability Pact for South East Europe - Dawn of an Era of Regional Co-operation - 5th Workshop of the Study Group [PDF] - 510K