Columbia International Affairs Online: Working Papers

CIAO DATE: 08/2008

Uncertainty and the Market for Patents

Irene Troy, Raymund Werle

July 2008

Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies

Abstract

Modern societies regard knowledge as a production factor in its own right. The market is the prevailing governance mode of their economies, and it is supposed to be the most appropriate mode of trading and allocating knowledge assets, too. But socio-economic research has revealed that knowledge markets are far from functioning smoothly. Building on ongoing qualitative research into patent trading we suggest that the emergence of a well-functioning market for patented new technological knowledge is confronted with several obstacles, which can be characterized as different facets of uncertainty. They are included in the process of creation of innovative knowledge, in its transformation into a fictitious knowledge commodity (patent), in its uniqueness, in the strategy of transac- tion partners, in the estimation of the future market potential of final products (based on the patent), and generally in the problem of incomplete and asymmetric informa- tion. Also a commonly accepted method of determining a patent’s value is missing. We analyze structural and organizational responses to the problem of uncertainty. Potential traders often rely on contractual options, especially licensing agreements, and complementary procedural principles facilitating the trade of patents.