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CIAO DATE: 11/00

Security Cooperation in Southern Africa: Lessons From the European Experience (NATO, EU, OSCE) *

Bjørn Møller **

September, 2000

Copenhagen Peace Research Institute

Table of Contents

 

Europe is special in several important respects. Hence, one should always be cautious about using the European experience as a model for other regions. Nevertheless, there may be some lessons to be learned, which will be highlighted in the following. The paper focuses on those aspects of the European experience which are particularly relevant for security in a moderately enlarged sense of the term 1 . The assumptions of what may be relevant for Southern Africa are deliberately very tentative, as this question is for the Africans themselves to resolve.

 

1. Europe: From Conflict Formation to Security Community (?)

Until quite recently, Europe was one of the least secure places in the world. Just remember the Thirty Years War, the Napoleonic Wars and the two world wars of the 20th century. Even though the Cold War has been described by some as "the long peace", 2 it was a "peace" built on the risk of mutual annihilation through nuclear conflagration, hence hardly deserving the label. 3

Gradually, however, most of Europe was transformed into what Karl Deutsch called a "security community", i.e. a group of states "where there is real assurance that the members of that community will not fight each other physically, but will settle their disputes in some other way"—or what has been called a "zone of peace". 4 I shall return, in due course, to those parts of Europe which remain outside this community, but the very fact that it has emerged, and apparently grown, in most of Europe is significant and deserves explanation.

1.1 Stabilizing Factors in Europe (1945-1990)

This benign development from a "conflict formation" 5 to a (partial) security community has been attributed by representatives of the various schools in International Relations (IR) theory to a host of different factors, all of which could well play a role and be mutually reinforcing.

1.1.1 Realists and the English School

IR Realists 6 have tended to emphasize the following factors:

Authors belonging to the "English School" (Hedley Bull, Adam Watson and others) 12 tended to place greater emphasis on the following factors:

1.1.2 Liberals and Institutionalists

Liberalists and neoliberal institutionalists 16 have tended to focus on the following:

1.2 After the Wall

The Wall came tumbling down in 1989, along with the Warsaw Pact, the Soviet Union and the global appeal of communism as an ideology. This automatically entailed a disappearance of some of the above stabilizing factors, temporarily leaving Europe in limbo. 25

1.2.1 Realism and the End of the Cold War

Not only were the Realists baffled by the very end of the Cold War. They were also profoundly concerned about its possible implications. 26

When the bipolar overlay was lifted, not only did states realign according to old, but hitherto subdued, ties of amity and enmity (Greece and Bulgaria against Turkey, for instance, rather than Greece and Turkey against Bulgaria). Europe also witnessed the appearance on the international stage of a flurry of sub-state actors which made it increasingly absurd to focus exclusively on state-to-state relations. Nations and ethnic groups, often straddling state borders, became powerful forces disturbing the peace, inter alia by claiming secession and/or raising irridentist claims for unification with their respective motherlands. 30

While this phenomenon was not confined to the eastern parts of Europe, it was much more pronounced there than in the West. A new fault line thus appeared to draw itself between the two parts of Europe: the prosperous, democratic and fairly stable West, and the impoverished and unstable East. This fault line roughly followed the divide between, to the West, Protestant and Roman Catholic christianity and, to the East, an unsavoury blend of Orthodox christianity and Islam—thereby seemingly pointing towards a coming "clash of civilizations". 31

Table 1:
The New and
Expanded NATO		 Mil. Exp. US$mil.
(1997 constant prices)
Increase		 Armed forces
(Thousands)
Increase
1985 1998 1985 1998
Canada 11,147 6,637 -40.5% 83.0 60.6 -27.0%
USA 367,711 265,890 -27.7% 2,151.6 1,401.6 -34.9%
Belgium 5,863 3,698 -36.9% 91.6 43.7 52.3%
Denmark 2,978 2,799 -6.0% 29.6 32.1 8.4%
France 46,522 39,807 -14.4% 464.3 358.8 -22.7%
Germany 50,220 32,807 -34.7% 478.0 333.5 -30.2%
Greece 3,317 5,720 72.4% 201.5 168.5 -16.4%
Iceland n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Italy 24,471 22,633 -7.5% 385.1 298.4 -22.5%
Luxembourg 91 139 52.7% 0.7 0.8 14.3%
Netherlands 8,470 6,634 -21.7% 105.5 57.2 -45.8%
Norway 2,948 3,133 6.3% 37.0 28.9 -21.9%
Portugal 1,746 2,334 33.7% 73.0 53.6 -26.6%
Spain 10,731 7,272 -32.3% 320.0 194.0 -39.4%
Turkey 3,269 8,191 150.6% 630.0 639.0 1.4%
U.K. 45,408 36,613 -19.4% 327.1 210.9 -35.5%
Total Old NATO 584,892 444,307 -24.0% 5,378 3.882 -27.8%
Czech Rep. n.a. 1.132 n.a. n.a. 59.1 n.a.
Hungary n.a. 647 n.a. n.a. 43.3 n.a.
Poland n.a. 3.356 n.a. n.a. 240.7 n.a.
"Expanded NATO" 584,892 449,442 -23.2% 5,378.0 4,224.7 -21.4%
Total World 1,213,197 785,269 -35.3% 27,161.6 22,083.4 -18.7%
NATO/World 48.2% 57.2% 18.7% 19.8% 19.1% -3.4%

1.2.2 Liberalism and the Post-Cold War Setting

While the post-Cold War developments came as less of a surprise to the neoliberalists than to the neorealists, the new setting also presented problems with regard to their presumed stabilizing factors:

On the other hand, neoliberal optimism was proven right in several respects: Western Europe showed very few signs of any re-nationalization of security policies, but rather sought to strengthen collaboration and supranationality. One of the driving forces behind this may well have been the fear of a resurgent and irridentist Germany. Upon unification, it was seen as important to embed Germany in as dense a network of institutions as possible—a strategy which was, moreover, strongly supported by Germany herself. 35

Moreover, the Western European states went out of their way to avoid creating the impression of creating an inpenetrable "fortress Europe". "Deepening" of European collaboration and integration was therefore combined with a slow, but gradual enlargement. Even though not all states were invited to "join the party", all were given the impression that they eventually might be, which produced a hectic "anticipatory adaptation" to western norms throughout the former Eastern Europe, in the form of a quest by the states of the former Eastern Europe for recognition as bona fide "European", i.e. stable, democratic and "civilized". 36

 

2. European Organizations

The entire institutional framework in Europe was completely upset by the end of the Cold War.

2.1 Institutional "Architecture" or Confusion?

From this confusion arose a debate about the relationship between the various institutions, often referred to as institutional "architecture". In reality, however, the division of labour came about more by chance rather according to plan, and it often took the form of "buck-passing". The optimistic vision of "interlocking institutions" was thus partly superseded by the pessimistic one of "inter-blocking institutions". 38

This pessimism may well be self-fulfilling because of what one might call "the Catch 22 of organizations". For member states to confer authority to, and provide resources for, an organization it must perform satisfactorily—which is entirely understandable as political decision-makers are accountable to their electorates, hence must be able to justify any allocation of resources. However, unless member states confer the authority and allocate the resources, organizations are unable to pass the test. Not only does this problem arise in comparisons between unilateral action on the part of states and multilateral action through organizations such as the UN ("the US can do, the UN cannot") 39 . It also impacts on the choice between organizations, as when NATO member states dismiss the UN as an instrument of "crisis management" and intervention, lacking the military means which NATO possesses—for the simple reason that they have themselves chosen to assign their forces to NATO rather than the UN. 40

In table 2, the membership of the main European organizations is summarized (as of 1 January 2000). The ministates and micro-states Andorra, the Holy See (i.e. the Vatican), Liechtenstein, Monaco and San Marino have been omitted, even though they are all members of the OSCE. 41

2.2 The OSCE

The OSCE remains the most "legitimate" organization, not only by virtue of being all-inclusive (except for the FRY whose membership has been suspended) and the UN's officially affiliated regional organization, but also because nobody seriously objects to its authority. 42

The immediate aftermath of the Cold War saw a certain euforia about the possibilities of creating a functioning collective security system on the basis of the OSCE. This would have entailed a substitution of the opposing alliances with a single system based on the dual (and mutually supportive) principles of non-aggression and mutual assistance against aggression. 43 However, this enthusiasm and optimism soon gave way to an OSCE pessimism. Because the West (and especially NATO, lead by the USA) refused to grant the OSCE the required authority to play a major role, its role was quickly reduced to those of oversight of democratization, the sending out of observers for elections, etc.

In the realm of security policy, the OSCE sent out various missions, especially to some of the new states in the Former Soviet Union, some of which were probably quite succesful in preventing an outbreak of violence. 44 On the other hand, such "preventive diplomacy" 45 (and particularly a deliberately low-profile one such as practiced by the OSCE) tends to be ignored by the media, hence also by politicians. If succesful, no violence occurs, but it is often difficult (and always counterfactual) to prove why something did not happen. 46

Table 2: Membership of European
Organizations		 OSCE NATO EU WEU CIS PFP EAPC
Albania X         X X
Armenia X       X X X
Austria X   X     X X
Azerbaijan X       X X X
Belarus X       X X X
Belgium X X X X     X
Bosnia-H. X            
Bulgaria X     AP   X X
Canada X X         X
Croatia X            
Cyprus X            
Czech Rep. X X   AM     X
Denmark X X X O     X
Estonia X     AP   X X
Finland X   X     X X
France X X X X     X
FRY (Fed. Rep. of Yugoslavia) *X            
FYROM (Macedonia) X         X X
Georgia X       X X X
Germany X X X X     X
Greece X X X X     X
Hungary X X   AM     X
Iceland X X   AM     X
Ireland X   X        
Italy X X X X     X
Kazakhstan X       X X X
Kyrgyzstan X       X X X
Latvia X     AP   X X
Lithuania X     AP   X X
Luxembourg X X X X     X
Malta X            
Moldova X       X X X
Netherlands X X X X     X
Norway X X   AM     X
Poland X X   AM     X
Portugal X X X X     X
Romania X     AP   X X
Russia X       X X X
Slovakia X     AP   X X
Slovenia X     AP   X X
Spain X X X X     X
Sweden X   X     X X
Switzerland X         X X
Tajikistan X           X
Turkey X X   AM     X
Turkmenistan X       X X X
U.K. X X X X     X
Ukraine X       X X X
USA X X         X
Uzbekistan         X X X
Legend: CIS: Commonwealth of Independent States; EAPC: Euro-Atlantic Pertnership Council; EU: European Union; NATO: North Atlantic Treaty Organization; OSCE: Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe; *: Membership suspended; PFP: Partnership for Peace; WEU: Western European Union; AM: Associate Member; O: Observer; AP: Associate Partner

In connection with the Kosovo conflict, the OSCE was tasked with providing unarmed observers to monitor the ceasefire negotiated in October 1998. 47 Even though the deployment never reached the envisaged size, the presence of observers probably contributed to the decline in violence during the winter 1998/99, but it is difficult to falsify the assumption that this was simply due to weather conditions. In any case, the observers were swiftly extracted in preparation of NATO's bombing campaign, launched the 24th of March 1999 (vide infra). This whole affair did little to enhance the OSCE's authority, even though the failure (if so it was) might also be attributed to NATO's obstruction and quite explict threats to start bombing.

2.3 NATO

As the Cold War organization par excellence, NATO's raison d'être was put in doubt by the end of the Cold War.

2.3.1 The Three Rationales for NATO

All three rationales usually referred to ("keep Russia out, America in and Germany down") came to appear, if not completely obsolote then at least much less important than before:

2.3.2 To Enlarge or Not to Enlarge, That is the Question

Among the first challenges facing NATO was that of membership. Apart from the admission ("by default") of the former East Germany (German Democratic Republic), now as part of the united Germany, NATO was apparently far from eager to admit new members.

However, the alliance had the matter forced upon it by numerous applications for membership sent by former "enemies" who had now embraced the Western values of democracy and market economy. While it was very difficult to refuse such membership applications, NATO was also aware of the problems that this might cause for its relationship with Russia. Predictably, the chosen strategy was one of procrastination. 50

As a rather inadequate substitute for an enlargement, a new affiliate organization was created to include former Warsaw Pact members: the North Atlantic Cooperation Council (NACC). By being little more than a forum for discussions (mostly for parliamentarians) it was, however, a very far cry from such iron-clad security guarantees as were obviously what the applicants wanted. 51 Subsequenly, NATO established another affiliate with a little more military substance, namely the Partnership for Peace, under the auspices of which various (small and low-key) military manoevres and other forms of practical cooperation have taken place, mostly for "pegagogical reasons". 52

The actual decision to admit new members was only taken late and implemented in conjunction with the 50th anniversary of the alliance in April 1999. By that time, however, NATO had been transformed from a strictly defensive alliance into something more ominous, at least as seen from Moscow, Belgrade, New Delhi or Beijing.

2.3.3 From Defence to Intervention

Already then Secretary General of NATO Manfred Wörned had argued that the alliance had to go "out of area or out of business". As there was simply no credible threat to the security of any of the members, the security guarantees around which NATO had been built were no longer significant enough to anybody (and especially not to the old members) to justify NATO's continued existence. Going "out of area", however, also meant venturing beyond the familiar field of defence.

In preparation of the anniversary, the United States apparently sought to persuade her allies to relinquish some of the constraints embedded in the North Atlantic Treaty of 1949, including the preamble and paragraph one:

The Parties to this Treaty reaffirm their faith in the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and their desire to live in peace with all peoples and all governments.
(1) The Parties undertake, as set forth in the Charter of the United Nations, to settle any international disputes in which they may be involved by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security, and justice, are not endangered, and to refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force in any manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations.

U.S. Senator William Roth, in his capacity as President of the North Atlantic Council, in October 1998 published a report NATO in the 21st Century which undoubtedly reflected the American vision for NATO. 53 It contained, inter alia, the following recommendations:

NATO's purpose is to defend values and interests, not just territory (...)
NATO must preserve its freedom to act: The Allies must always seek to act in unison, preferably with a mandate from the United Nations (UN) or the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the framework for collective security in Europe. Even though all NATO member states undoubtedly would prefer to act with such a mandate, they must not limit themselves to acting only when such a mandate can be agreed. All NATO actions should nonetheless be based on appropriate legal authority.

The formulation was, of course, nonsense, as there is no other "legal authority" than the UN Security Council, which can legitimately issue a mandate to use force. In spite of the illegality thereof, from the autumn of 1998 until the launcing of the attack on 24 March 1999, all NATO members appeared prepared to go along with first the threat and subsequently the actual use of force against Yugoslavia.

The only positive thing that might be said about the war against Yugoslavia is that the Alliance's poor performance seems to have tempered the interventionist urge considerably by the time of the anniversary summit in Washington, 23-24 April 1999. 54 Even though some of the ideas and formulations of the Roth Report were retained in the documents from this meeting, the general tenor was somewhat more moderate. In the Washington Declaration 55 , it was thus solemnly proclaimed that

(4) We reaffirm our faith, as stated in the North Atlantic Treaty, in the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and reiterate our desire to live in peace with all nations, and to settle any international dispute by peaceful means.

The new Strategic Concept which was decided on the same occasion 56 went a bit further in the direction of the Roth Report with formulations such as the following:

(49) In contributing to the management of crises through military operations, the Alliance's forces will have to deal with a complex and diverse range of actors, risks, situations and demands, including humanitarian emergencies. Some non-Article 5 crisis response operations may be as demanding as some collective defence missions. (...)

The so-called "non-article 5" operations are, of course, a neologism for interventions. On balance, however, the decisions were more moderate than might have been feared, also because both documents contained references to the UN's supreme authority:

We reaffirm our faith, as stated in the North Atlantic Treaty, in the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and reiterate our desire to live in peace with all nations, and to settle any international dispute by peaceful means. (The Washington Declaration, art 4)

In fulfilling its purpose and fundamental security tasks, the Alliance will continue to respect the legitimate security interests of others, and seek the peaceful resolution of disputes as set out in the Charter of the United Nations.(...) The United Nations Security Council has the primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security and, as such, plays a crucial role in contributing to security and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area. (The Alliance's Strategic Concept, articles 11 and 15)

As the entire war against Yugoslavia was such a dismal failure, it seems reasonable to assume that NATO will think twice before embarking on a similar intervention. 57 It has nevertheless agreed to proceed with creating the means for such operations.

NATO's military posture was previously, for obvious reasons, designed for a major war, waged by all NATO states in an integrated fashion, against the Warsaw Pact along the Central Front in Europe—a scenario which is no longer relevant. For interventionist purposes, the requirements are different: There is no need for all member states to take part in such operations which could be undertaken by "coalitions of the willing"; they require lighter, and exclusively conventional, forces (fewer tanks and no nukes, for instance); but the need for transport facilities may be greater. NATO's answer to this has been the development of its CJTF concept for the use of Combined Joint Task Forces. 58 Its actual utility, however, remains to be demonstrated.

2.4 The EU and the WEU

While NATO has traditionally focused on "hard security", i.e. security in the traditional sense of being able to deter or repulse a military attack by virtue of its own military strength, the approach of the present EU has been different.

2.4.1 The EU as a Peace Project

Even since the founding of the European Steel Community, via the Rome Treaty and the EEC (European Economic Community) to the present European Union, this organization has focused on "soft security"—i.e. security based on a removal of motives for aggression, mostly by non-military means.

The "European project" has all along been motivated by the desire for peace, as was made explicit in the 1952 Schuman Declaration:

World peace cannot be safeguarded without the making of creative efforts proportionate to the dangers which threaten it. (...) Europe will not be made all at once, or according to a single plan. It will be built through concrete achievements which first create a de facto solidarity. The coming together of the nations of Europe requires the elimination of the age-old opposition of France and Germany. (...) The pooling of coal and steel production should immediately provide for the setting up of common foundations for economic development as a first step in the federation of Europe (...). The solidarity in production thus established will make it plain that any war between France and Germany becomes not merely unthinkable, but materially impossible. 59

These considerations remain as valid today as they were then. The EU has already proceeded far beyond the "Westphalian model", and is today far more than a "pluralistic security community" in the traditional sense. Whether its progressive amalgamation will eventually produce a new "superstate", or a polity sui generis remains to be seen. 60 Moreover, they could easily be extended to the rest of Europe. The EU's main contribution to European security is thus not so much to do something (such as bombing other states "NATO-style") as it is to be something, namely an immensely attractive market and community of nations, among the members of which war is no longer conceivable. This community is, in principle, open to newcomers; and because of the EU's predominantly civilian nature, there has been no significant objections (e.g. by Russia) to EU enlargement. 61

2.4.2 A Military Dimension?

The above does not, of course, imply that the EU does nothing, only that these activities are not the EU's most important contributions to peace in Europe. The EU, for instance, confers recognition on new states, has various conflict prevention mechanisms. etc. 62 Until recently, however, the EU deliberately avoided military matters, leaving the military aspects of security to NATO and/or the Western European Union (WEU).

The latter, for most of its existence, played virtually no role, but it was resurrected from oblivion in 1984, mainly as a convenient framework for an intensified Franco-German collaboration. 63 In connection with the Maastricht treaty of February 1992, the WEU was proclaimed to constitute an integral part of the EU, and in June the same year the WEU formulated its future tasks, henceforth known as "Petersberg tasks", comprising peacekeeping, humanitarian operations and crisis management. 64

In the Washington Summit Communiqué (24th April 1999) on An Alliance for the 21st Century, NATO took a stand on the relationship between the EU/WEU and NATO with the following formulations:

We confirm that a stronger European role will help contribute to the vitality of our Alliance for the 21st century, which is the foundation of the collective defence of its members. In this regard:
  1. We acknowledge the resolve of the European Union to have the capacity for autonomous action so that it can take decisions and approve military action where the Alliance as a whole is not engaged;
  2. As this process goes forward, NATO and the EU should ensure the development of effective mutual consultation, co-operation and transparency, building on the mechanisms existing between NATO and the WEU;
  3. We applaud the determination of both EU members and other European Allies to take the necessary steps to strengthen their defence capabilities, especially for new missions, avoiding unnecessary duplication;
  4. We are determined that the decisions taken in Berlin in 1996, including the concept of using separable but not separate NATO assets and capabilities for WEU-led operations, should be further developed.

These formulations seemed tantamount to a NATO (i.e. US) approval of further European collaboration, paving the way for a gradual "Europeanization" of European security. 65 Other obstacles to such a development had also been removed:

EU countries, spearheaded by Germany, France and the UK, have thus recently taken significant stepts in the direction of creating a genuine European security and defence capacity, the interim goal being to be able to field 60,000 troops on short notice for "Petersberg operations". 68 However, they all emphasize the need to preserve the transatlantic link and go out of their way to assure the US that the European ventures are entirely compatible with NATO.

2.4.3 The End of the Grand Quid pro Quo?

In the present author's opinion, however, the time has come for the European countries to sever most of the defence and security links with the United States. The main reason for this is that the very basis of the "grand transatlantic bargain" has been eroded. This grand bargain constituted a mutually beneficial quid pro quo, which has simply ceased to be mutually beneficial. 69

Table 3: EU
Defence Self-
reliance? 70 		Mil. Exp.
US$ mil.
(1997 const.) 		Armed
forces
(1000) 		  Mil. Exp.
US$ mil.
(1997 const.) 		Armed
forces
(1000)
Austria 1,764 45.5 Cyprus 489 10.0
Belgium 3,698 43.7 Estonia 68 4.3
Denmark 2,799 32.1 Latvia 157 5.0
Finland 1,855 31.7 Lithuania 134 11.1
France 39,807 358.8 Malta 29 1.9
Germany 32,807 333.5 Slovenia 360 9.6
Greece 5,720 168.5 Switzerland 3,556 26.3
Ireland 780 11.5 "Friends" 4,793 68.2
Italy 22,633 298.4 Albania 98 54.0
Luxembourg 139 0.8 Armenia 146 53.4
Netherlands 6,634 57.2 Azerbaijan 189 72.2
Portugal 2,334 53.6 Belarus 452 83.0
Spain 7,272 194.0 Bosnia-H. 389 40.0
Sweden 5,536 53.1 Bulgaria 390 101.5
U.K. 36,613 210.9 Croatia 1,371 56.2
  FRY 1,523 114.2
European Union 170,391 1,893.3 FYROM 136 20.0
  Georgia 108 33.2
Czech Rep. 1,132 59.1 Moldova 51 11.1
Hungary 647 43.3 Romania 870 219.7
Norway 3,133 28.9 Russia 53,912 1,159.0
Poland 3,356 240.7 Slovakia 407 45.5
Turkey 8,191 639.0 Ukraine 1,361 346.4
Non-EU NATO 16,459 1,011.0 Rest 61,403 2,409.4
Ratios Mil. Exp. Armed forces
Extremely pessimistic EU/Europe 206% 54%
Moderately pessimistic EU/Rest 277% 79%
Realistic/cautious EU+non-EU NATO/Rest 304% 121%
Optimistic EU+NATO+Friends/Rest 312% 123%

The "Quid" was a US pledge to remain involved in European security in the form of security guarantees to its allies, fearful of Soviet aggression and without confidence in their own ability to muster the required military means to defend themselves. Whatever the real situation may have been in the past, the EU countries now posses ample means of defending themselves against any conceivable hostile alliance, as shown in Table 3. The combined military expenditures of EU members are twice those of all the other European states combined, and more than three times those of a (very hypothetical) alliance of (potentially) hostile European states. Only with regard to manpower is the EU surpassed, and merely taking the armed forces of other European NATO members into account suffices to correct this apparent imbalance. EU defence thus simply does not need any US support any longer.

The "Quo" was a set of unwritten rules implying, as a minimum, a European consent to US dominance, i.e. subservience. From time to time, some NATO members opposed some US moves, of course, but there were limits. These rules were, moreover, tolerable as long as there were no major disagreements between the US and its European allies. Such disagreements have, however, appeared after the Cold War on a number of issues, and this is likely to continue. Even though the following are, of course, sweeping generalizations, the differences are real.

Such disagreements are likely to "pop up" over and over again in the coming years, and the Europeans are likely to become less and less willing to mute their dissent. This may, once again, reinvigorate in the United States the perennial problem of "burden-sharing" that has haunted NATO ever since the beginning: 74 Why should the US taxpayers support Europeans who are perfectly capable of defending themselves and who are even so ungrateful as to disagree with the United States on major policy issues? This may well lead to a US disengagement from Europe, which is to be welcomed, in the present author's opinion.

 

3. Conclusion and Perspectives: Lessons For Southern Africa (?)

It would be presumptuous for a European to draw lessons for Africa from the experience of his own continent. I shall therefore limit myself, in this concluding chapter to pointing out some of the differences which all speak against using Europe as a "model" for Africa.

3.1 Afica and Europe Compared

First of all, there are significant differences between the two "settings", hence also between the (alleged or genuine) stabilizing factors emphasized by the various schools of IR theory—which is, incidentally, an academical discipline almost totally dominated by the North. 75 For a summary see Table 5.

Most obviously, the Realist worldview appears irrelevant for Africa:

The factors emphasized by the "English school" seem more relevant for Africa, but rather in the sense of showing what was bound to go wrong than of pointing to possible remedies.

Table 5: Factors of
Stability: Europe and
Africa Compared		 Europe Africa
"Realist factors"
Polarity ?
Bipolar overlay ->
Unipolarity or
multipolarity		 No:
Penetration -> marginalization
Unclear indigenous polarity
"Dual-use" armed forces
Balance of power Yes:
Rough equality		 No:
Gross disparities in military
power
Deterrence Yes:
Nuclear weapons		 No:
Nuclear-weapons-free zone
"English School factors"
State system Yes:
Strong states
International society		 No:
Weak states
Weak state system
Diplomacy Yes:
Strong diplomacy
Many arms control
treaties		 No:
Weak diplomacy
Few arms control treaties
"Liberalist factors"
Learning Yes:
Centuries of mistakes
and disasters to learn
from		 No:
Short learning time
Not allowed to make (and
learn from) mistakes
Political structure Yes:
Democratic peace
Good governance		 No:
Fragile democracies
Risk of praetorianism
Bad governance
Economic relations Yes:
Interdependence
Regimes		 No:
Dependency of the North
Asymmetries in intra-regional
economic relations
Resource wars conceivable
Institutions Yes:
Many and strong
institutions and
organizations		 No:
Few and weak institutions
and organizations
Personal networks a
possible substitute
Integration Yes:
Deepening and
enlangment of the EU
Transcending the
state system		 No:
Regional cooperation, but
no integration
State-building top priority

The factors emphasized by Liberalism may seem most relevant, but do not give more grounds for optimism:

3.2 Conclusion: Lessons from Europe?

As the differences with regard to the foundations differ so widely, it may be advisable for Africa to forget about the European example as far as institutions are concerned.

It might, however, be worth considering a combination of the regional organization (i.e. the OAU as the African counterpart of the OSCE) with the SADC as a partial counterpart of the merged EU and WEU. The OAU would (via sub-delegation from the UN) be the forum for setting of standards and signing of conventions. It could further be given a certain early warning capacity (beyond the present "Mechanism") 114 and the authority to mandate peacekeeping operations, which might then be undertaken by SADC (or "coalitions of the willing" assembled from among its members), in analogy with the EU/WEU's undertaking "Petersberg tasks" for Europe.

Because of the increasing "marginalization" of Africa, and the intractable nature of many of its conflicts, it seems unlikely that countries of the global North will be willing to shoulder the burden of restoring or even keeping peace in Africa. 115 This means that the African nations will have no alternative to performing most of these tasks themselves and regional-cum-subregional collaboration may be the only way to accomplish this. 116

Endnotes

*: Preliminary version. Not for quotation. Comments are welcome. Paper prepared for the Southern African Regional Institute for Policy Studies (SARIPS) Annual Colloquium 2000 on Regional Integration in Southern Africa: Past, Present and Future Harare, Zimbabwe, 24-28 September 2000. Back

**: The author holds an MA in History and a Ph.D. in International Relations, both from the University of Copenhagen. Since 1985, he has been (senior) research fellow, subsequently programme director and board member at the Copenhagen Peace Research Institute (COPRI, formerly Centre for Peace and Conflict Research). He is further lecturer at the Institute of Political Studies, University of Copenhagen and was Secretary General of the International Peace Research Association (IPRA) in the period 1997-2000. In addition to being the author of numerous articles and editor of six anthologies, he is the author of the following books: Resolving the Security Dilemma in Europe. The German Debate on Non-Offensive Defence (1991); Common Security and Nonoffensive Defense. A Neorealist Perspective (1992); and Dictionary of Alternative Defense (1995). Back

Note 1: On the meaning of "security" see Wolfers, Arnold: "National Security as an Ambiguous Symbol", in idem: Discord and Collaboration. Essays on International Politics (Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press, 1962), pp. 147-165; Krell, Gert: "The Development of the Concept of Security", in Egbert Jahn & Yoshikazu Sakamoto (eds.): Elements of World Instability: Armaments, Communication, Food, International Division of Labour, Proceedings of the International Peace Research Association Eighth General Conference (Frankfurt: Campus Verlag, 1981), pp. 238-254; Frei, Daniel: "Was ist unter Frieden und Sicherheit zu verstehen?", in Wolfgang Heisenberg & Dieter S. Lutz (eds.): Sicherheitspolitik kontrovers. Frieden und Sicherheit. Status quo in Westeuropa und Wandel in Osteuropa (Bonn: Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung, 1990), vol. 1, pp. 41-49; Stephenson, Carolyn: "New Conceptions of Security and Their Implicatons for Means and Methods", in Katharine and Majid Tehranian (eds.): Restructuring for World Peace. On the Threshold of the Twenty-First Century (Creskil, NJ: Hampton Press, 1992), pp. 47-61; Ullman, Richard: "Redefining Security", International Security, vol. 8, no. 1 (Summer 1983), pp. 162-177; Nye, Joseph E. & Sean M. Lynn-Jones: "International Security Studies: A Report of a Conference on the State of the Field", ibid., vol. 12, no. 4 (Spring 1988), pp. 5-27; Lynn-Jones, Sean: "The Future of International Security Studies", in Desmond Ball & David Horner (eds.): Strategic Studies in a Changing World: Global, Regional and Australian Perspectives (Canberra: Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Research School of Pacific Studies, the Australian National University, 1992), pp. 71-107; Fischer, Dietrich: Nonmilitary Aspects of Security. A Systems Approach (Aldershot: Dartmouth, 1993); Buzan, Barry: People, States and Fear. An Agenda for International Security Studies in the Post-Cold War Era, Second Edition (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1991); idem, Ole Wæver & Jaap de Wilde: Security. A New Framework for Analysis (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1998); Wæver, Ole: "Securitization and Desecuritization", in Ronnie D. Lipschutz (ed.): On Security (New York: Columbia University Press, 1995), pp. 46-86; idem, Barry Buzan, Morten Kelstrup and Pierre Lemaitre: Identity, Migration and the New Security Agenda in Europe (London: Pinter, 1993); Dalby, Simon: "Rethinking Security: Ambiguities in Policy and Theory", International Studies (Burnaby, BC: Dep. of Political Science, Simon Fraser University, 1991); Fierke, K.M.: Changing Games, Changing Strategies. Critical Investigations in Security (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1998); Huysmans, Jef: "Security! What Do You Mean? From Concept to Thick Signifier", European Journal of International Relations, vol. 4, no. 2 (June 1998), pp. 226-255; Hansen, Lene: "A Case for Seduction? Evaluating the Poststructuralist Conceptualization of Security", Cooperation and Conflict, vol. 32, no. 4 (December 1997), pp. 369-397; McSweeney, Bill: "Security and Identity: Buzan and the Copenhagen School", Review of International Studies, vol. 22, no. 1 (1996), pp. 81-93; idem: Security, Identity and Interests. A Sociology of International Relations (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999); Møller, Bjørn: "Security Concepts: New Challenges and Risks", Working Papers, no. 18, (Copenhagen: Centre for Peace and Conflict Research, 1993); and idem: "The Concept of Security. The Pros and Cons of Expansion and Contraction", available for download at http://www.copri.dk/ipra/Conf-papers/moeller-2.doc. Back

Note 2: Gaddis, John Lewis: "The Long Peace: Elements of Stability in the Postwar International System," International Security, vol. 10, no. 4 (Spring 1986), pp. 99-142. Back

Note 3: Axelrod, Robert: "The Concept of Stability in the Context of Conventional War in Europe", Journal of Peace Research, vol. 27, no. 3 (1990), pp. 247-254. On the concept of "peace" see Galtung, Johan: "Violence, Peace, and Peace Research", in idem: Peace: Research, Education, Action. Essays in Peace Research. Volume I (Copenhagen: Christian Ejlers Forlag, 1975), pp. 109-134; idem: "Peace Research", ibid., pp. 150-166; idem: "What is Meant by Peace and Security? Some Options for the 1990s", in idem: Transarmament and the Cold War. Essays in Peace Research, Volume VI (Copenhagen: Christian Ejlers Forlag, 1988), pp. 61-71; Boulding, Kenneth: Stable Peace (Austin: University of Texas Press, 1978). Back

Note 4: The classical work on security communities is Deutsch, Karl W. et al.: Political Community and the North Atlantic Area. International Organization in the Light of Historical Experience (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1957), pp. 3-9. A revised version of the theory is Adler, Emmanuel & Michael Barnett (eds.): Security Communities (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998). On zones of peace see Singer, Max & Aaron Wildawsky: The Real World Order. Zones of Peace / Zones of Turmoil (Chatham, NJ: Chatham House Publishers, 1993); Kacowicz, Arie M.: Zones of Peace in the Third World. South America and West Africa in Comparative Perspective (Albany: State University of New York Press, 1998). Back

Note 5: On the concept see Senghaas, Dieter: Konfliktformationen im internationalen System (Frankfurt a.M.: Suhrkamp Verlag, 1988); Väyrynen, Raimo: "Conflict Tranformation and Cooperation in Europe", Bulletin of Peace Proposals, vol. 21, no. 3 (1990), pp. 299-306. Back

Note 6: On Realism in general see Frankel, Benjamin (ed.): Roots of Realism (London: Frank Cass, 1996); idem (ed.): Realism: Restatements and Renewal (London: Frank Cass, 1996); Guzzini, Stefano: Realism in International Relations and International Political Economy. The Continuing Story of a Death Foretold (London: Routledge, 1998). For a critique see Griffiths, Martin: Realism, Idealism and International Politics. A Reinterpretation (London: Routledge, 1992); and Vasquez, John: The Power of Power Politics. From Classsical Realism to Neotraditionalism (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998). Back

Note 7: On the terminology see Kaplan, Morton A.: System and Process in International Politics (New York: Wiley & Sons, 1957); or idem "Some Problems of International Systems Research" (1966), excerpted in Vasquez, John (ed.): Classics of International Relations, 3rd Edition (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1996), pp. 297-302. On the alleged stability of bipolarity see Waltz, Kenneth N.: Theory of International Politics (Reading: Addison-Wesley, 1979), pp. 129-138. For a critique see Copeland, Dale C.: "Neorealism and the Myth of Bipolar Stability: Toward a New Dynamic Realist Theory of Major War", in Frankel: Realism (op. cit., note 6), pp. 29-89; Kegley, Charles W. & Gregory A. Raymond: A Multipolar Peace? Great-Power Politics in the 21st Century (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1994), pp. 67-120. Back

Note 8: On overlay see Buzan: op. cit. (note 1), pp. 219-221; idem, Morten Kelstrup, Pierre Lemaitre, Elzbieta Tromer & Ole Wæver: The European Security Order Recast. Scenarios for the Post-Cold War Era (London: Pinter, 1990), pp. 15-16, 36-41. Back

Note 9: See, e.g. Sundelius, Bengt (ed.): The Neutral Democracies and the New Cold War (Boulder: Westview, 1987); Kruzel, Joseph & Michael H. Haltzel (eds.): Between the Blocs. Problems and Prospects for Europe's Neutrals and Non-Aligned States (Cambridge: University Press, 1989); Hakovirta, Harto: East-West Conflict and European Neutrality (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1988). On the changing implications of neutrality after the Cold War see Andrén, Nils: "On the Meaning and Uses of Neutrality", Cooperation and Conflict, vol. 26, no. 2 (June 1991), pp. 67-84; Bebler, Anton: "The Neutral and Non-Aligned States in the New European Security Architecture", European Security, vol. 1, no. 2 (Summer 1992), pp. 133-143; Binter, Josef: "Neutrality in a Changing World: End or Renaissance of a Concept?", Bulletin of Peace Proposals, vol. 23, no. 2 (June 1992), pp. 213-218; Carton, Alain: Les neutres, la neutralité et l'Europe (Paris: Fondation pour les études de défense nationale, 1991). Back

Note 10: On balance of power in general see Sheehan, Michael: The Balance of Power. History and Theory (London: Routledge, 1996). See also Gulick, Edward Vose: Europe's Classical Balance of Power (1955. Reprint: New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 1967), passim; Wolfers, Arnold: "The Balance of Power in Theory and Practice", in idem: op. cit. (note 1), pp. 117-131; or Haas, Ernst B.: "The Balance of Power: Prescription, Concept or Propaganda?", in Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr. (ed.): Politics and the International System, second edition (Philadelphia: J.P. Lippincott Co., 1972), pp. 452-480. For a devastating critique see Vasquez: op. cit. (note 6), passim. Back

Note 11: Mearsheimer, John J.: "Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence in Europe", in Hylke Tromp (ed.): War in Europe. Nuclear and Conventional Perspectives (Aldershot: Gower, 1989), pp. 71-100. Good analyses of the pros and cons of the various options are Jervis, Robert: The Illogic of American Nuclear Strategy (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1984); idem: The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution. Statecraft and the Prospects of Armageddon (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1989).; Miller, James N.: "Zero and Minimal Nuclear Weapons", in Joseph S. Nye Jr., Graham T. Allison & Albert Carnesale (eds.): Fateful Visions. Avoiding Nuclear Catastrophe (Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1988), pp. 11-32; Booth, Ken & Nicholas J. Wheeler: "Beyond Nuclearism", in Regina Owen Karp (ed.): Security Without Nuclear Weapons? Different Perspectives on Non-Nuclear Security (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1992), pp. 21-55; Wheeler, Nicholas J.: "Minimum Deterrence and Nuclear Abolition", ibid., pp. 250-280. On the role of nuclear weapons in Europe see Stromseth, Jane E.: The Origins of Flexible Response. NATO's Debate Over Strategy in the 1960's (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1988); Daalder, Ivo H.: The Nature and Practice of Flexible Response. NATO Strategy and Theater Nuclear Forces Since 1967 (New York: Columbia University Press, 1991); Mey, Holger H.: NATO-Strategie vor der Wende. Die Entwicklung des Verständnisses nuklearer Macht im Bündnis zwischen 1967 und 1990 (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 1992); Haftendorn, Helga: NATO and the Nuclear Revolution. A Crisis of Credibility, 1966-1967 (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1996); Heuser, Beatrice: NATO, Britain, France and the FRG. Nuclear Strategies and Forces for Europe, 1949-2000 (London: Macmillan, 1999). Back

Note 12: Dunne, Tim: Inventing International Society: A History of the English School (Houndmills: Macmillans, 1998). Back

Note 13: Bull, Hedley: The Anarchical Society. A Study of Order in World Politics. Second Edition (Houndsmills: Macmillan, 1995), passim; Watson, Adam: The Evolution of International Society (London: Routledge, 1992), pp. 182-213. See also Fowler, Michael Ross & Julie Marie Bunck: Law, Power, and the Sovereign State. The Evolution and Application of the Concept of Sovereignty (University Park, PA: Pennsylvania State University Press. 1995); Krasner, Stephen D.: "Westphalia and All That", in Judith Goldstein & Robert O. Keohane (eds.): Ideas and Foreign Policy. Beliefs, Institutional, and Political Change (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1993), pp. 235-264; idem: Sovereignty. Organized Hypocrisy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1999); Spruyt, Hendrik: The Sovereign State and Its Competitors (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994); Lyons, Gene M. & Michael Mastanduno (eds.): Beyond Westphalia? National Sovereignty and International Intervention (Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press, 1995). Back

Note 14: On diplomacy as an institution see Bull: op. cit. (note 13), pp. 156-177; Watson, Adam: Diplomacy (London: Methuen, 1982). For a historical account see Kissinger, Henry: Diplomacy (New York: Touchstone, 1994). Back

Note 15: On arms control see O'Neill, Robert & David N. Schwartz (eds.): Hedley Bull on Arms Control (London: Macmillan, 1987); Adler, Emmanuel (ed.): The International Practice of Arms Control (Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press, 1992). For a critique see Gray, Colin S.: House of Cards. Why Arms Control Must Fail (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1992). On European arms control see Dean, Jonathan: Watershed in Europe. Dismantling the East-West Military Confrontation (Lexington: Lexington Books, 1987). On MBFR see Müller, Martin: Politik und Bürokratie: Die MBFR-Politik der Bundesrepublik Deutschland zwischen 1967 und 1971 (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 1988). On CBMs and CSBMs the two "classics" are: Alford, Jonathan: "Confidence-Building Measures in Europe: The Military Aspects", Adelphi Papers, no. 149 (1979), pp. 4-13; and Holst, Johan Jørgen: "Confidence-Building Measures: A Conceptual Framework", Survival, vol. 25, no. 1 (Jan-Feb. 1983), pp. 2-15. See also Borawski, John: From the Atlantic to the Urals: Negotiating Arms Control at the Stockholm Conference (Washington, D.C.: Brassey's, 1988); idem: Security for a New Europe. The Vienna Negotiations on Confidence and Security-Building Measures 1989-90, and Beyond (London: Brassey's, 1992); Brauch, Hans Günter (ed.): Vertrauensbildende Maßnahmen und Europäische Abrüstungskonferenz. Analysen, Dokumente und Vorschläge (Gerlingen: Bleicher Verlag, 1987); Lutz, Dieter S. & Erwin Müller (eds.): Vertrauensbildende Maßnahmen. Zur Theorie und Praxis einer sicherheitspolitischen Strategie (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 1982); Desjardin, Marie-France: "Rethinking Confidence-Building Measures", Adelphi Papers, no. 397 (1996); Freeman, John: Security and the CSCE Process. The Stockholm Conference and Beyond (London: Macmillan, 1991); Ghebaldi, Victor-Yves: "Confidence-Building Measures Within the CSCE Process: Paragraph-by-Paragraph Analysis of the Helsinki and Stockholm Regimes", Research Paper, no. 3, (New York: UNIDIR, 1989). On the INF see Dean, Jonathan: "The INF Treaty Negotiations", in SIPRI Yearbook 1988, pp. 375-394. The treaty itself, along with a Memorandum of Understanding and two protocols, are included as appendices 13A-13D, ibid., pp. 395-485. On the CFE see Sharp, Jane M.O.: "Conventional Arms Control in Europe", in SIPRI Yearbook 1991, pp. 407-474 (with appendices, including the treaty itself); Blechman, Barry M., Willias J. Durch & Kevin P. O'Prey: NATO's Stake in the New Talks on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (London: Macmillan, 1990); Kelleher, Catherine McArdle, Jane M.O. Sharp and Lawrence Freedman (eds.): The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe: The Politics of Post-Wall Arms Control (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 1996); Koulik, Sergey & Richard Kokoski: Conventional Arms Control. Perspectives on Verification (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994); Hartmann, Rüdiger, Wolfgang Heydrich & Nikolaus Meyer-Landrut: Der Vertrag über konventionelle Streitkräfte in Europa. Vertragswerk, Verhandlungsgeschichte, Kommentar, Dokumentation (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 1994); Zellner, Wolfgang: Die Verhandlungen über Konventionelle Streitkräfte in Europa. Konventionelle Rüstungskontrolle, die neue politische Lage in Europa und die Rolle der Bundesrepublik Deutschland (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 1994); Croft, Stuart (ed.): The Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty. The Cold War Endgame (Aldershot: Dartmouth, 1994); Akçapar, Burak: The International Law of Conventional Arms Control in Europe (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 1996); Falkenrath, Richard A.: Shaping Europe's Military Order. The Origins and Consequences of the CFE Treaty (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 1994). Back

Note 16: Good comparison with Realism include Baldwin, David A. (ed.): Neorealism and Neoliberalism. The Contemporary Debate (New York: Columbia University Press, 1993); Kegley, Charles W.: Controversies in International Relations: Realism and the Neoliberal Challenge (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1995); and Doyle, Michael W.: Ways of War and Peace: Realism, Liberalism, and Socialism (New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 1997). Back

Note 17: Mueller, John, "The Essential Irrelevance of Nuclear Weapons: Stability in the Postwar World," International Security, vol. 13, no. 2 (Fall 1988), pp. 55-79; idem: Retreat from Doomsday: The Obsolescence of Major War (New York: Basic Books, 1989). See also Evera, Stephen Van: "Primed for Peace: Europe After the Cold War", International Security, vol. 15, no. 3 (Winter 1990-91), pp. 7-57. Back

Note 18: Mansfield, Edward D. & Jack Snyder: "Democratization and War", Foreign Affairs, vol. 74, no. 3 (May/June 1995), pp. 79-97. Back

Note 19: The classical formulation of the thesis (not referring explicitly to democracies, but to representative government in general) is Kant, Immanuel (1795): Zum ewigen Frieden. Ein philosophischer Entwurf (Stuttgart: Reclam, 1963). A general survey of the idea is provided by Gleditsch, Nils Petter: "Democracy and Peace", Journal of Peace Research, vol. 29, no. 4 (November 1992), pp. 369-376. The recent revival of interest in the thesis may be traced back to Doyle, Michael: "Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs", Philosophy and Public Affairs, vol. 12, no. 3-4 (1983), pp. 205-35, 323-353. Recent works include Russett, Bruce: Grasping the Democratic Peace. Principles for a Post-Cold War World (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1993); Elman, Miriam Fendius: Paths to Peace. Is Democracy the Answer? (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1997); MacMillan, John: On Liberal Peace. Democracy, War and the International Order (London: I.B. Tauris, 1998); Brown, Michael E., Sean Lynn-Jones & Steven E. Miller (eds.): Debating the Democratic Peace (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 1996); Gowa, Joanne: Ballots and Bullets. The Elusive Democratic Peace (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999); Gaubatz, Kurt Taylor: Elections and War. The Electoral Incentive in the Democratic Politics of War and Peace (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1999); Ray, James Lee: Democracy and International Conflict. An Evaluation of the Democratic Peace Proposition (Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1995); Weart, Spencer R.: Never at War: Why Democracies Will Not Fight One Other (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1998); Kacowicz, Arie M.: "Explaining Zones of Peace: Democracies as Satisfied Powers", Journal of Peace Research, vol. 32, no. 3 (August 1995), pp. 265-276. Back

Note 20: Keohane, Robert O. & Joseph S. Nye: Power and Interdependence. World Politics in Transition (Boston: Little Brown, 1977). On the links with the other elements in the "liberal peace" see Wilde, Jaap de: Saved From Oblivion: Interdependence Theory in the First Half of the 20th Century. A Study on the Causality Between War and Complex Interdependence (Aldershot: Dartmouth, 1991); Tromp, Hylke: "Interdependence and Security: the Dilemma of the Peace Research Agenda", Bulletin of Peace Proposals, vol. 19, no. 2 (1988), pp. 151-158; Haas, Ernst B.: "War, Interdependence and Functionalism", in Raimo Väyrynen (ed.): The Quest for Peace. Transcending Collective Violence and War Among Societies, Cultures and States (London: Sage, 1987), pp. 108-127; Barbieri, Katherine: "Economic Interdependence: A Path to Peace or a Source of Interstate Conflict", Journal of Peace Research, vol. 33, no. 1 (February 1996), pp. 29-49; Oneal, John R,, Frances H. Oneal, Zeev Maoz & Bruce Russett: "The Liberal Peace: Interdependence, Democracy, and International Conflict, 1950-85", ibid., pp. 11-28; Oneal, John R. & Bruce Russett: "The Classical Liberals Were Rights: Democracy, Interdependence, and Conflict, 1950-1985", International Studies Quarterly, vol. 41, no. 2 (June 1997), pp. 267-294. Back

Note 21: Krasner, Stephen D. (ed.): International Regimes (Ithaca: Cornell University Press 1982); Müller, Harald: Die Chance der Kooperation. Regime in den internationalen Beziehungen (Darmstadt: Wissenschaftliche Buchgesellschaft, 1993); Rittberger, Volker (ed.): Regime Theory and International Relations (Oxford: Clarendon Paperbacks, 1995); Hasenclever, Andreas, Peter Mayer & Volker Rittberger: Theories of International Regimes (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997). Back

Note 22: A good overview is Rotfeld, Adam Daniel & Walther Stützle (eds.): Germany and Europe in Transition (Oxford University Press, 1991). Back

Note 23: Keohane, Robert O.: "Neoliberal Institutionalism: A Perspective on World Politics", in idem (ed.): International Institutions and State Power: Essays in International Relations Theory (Boulder: Westview Press, 1989), pp. 1-20; idem & Lisa L. Martin: "The Promise of Institutionalist Theory", International Security, vol. 20, no. 1 (Summer 1995), pp. 39-51; Ruggie, John Gerard: Constructing the World Polity. Essays on International Institutionalism (London: Routledge, 1998). For a Realist critique see Mearsheimer, John J.: "The False Promise of International Institutions", International Security, vol. 19, no. 3 (Winter 1994/95), pp. 5-49. Back

Note 24: On integration see Haas, Ernst B.: International Political Communities (New York: Anchor Books, 1966); Nye, Joseph S.: Peace in Parts: Integration and Conflict in Regional Organization (Boston: Little, Brown & Co., 1971); Russett, Bruce: International Regions and the International System (Chicago: Rand McNally, 1967); Hodges, Michael (ed.): European Integration. Selected Readings (Harmondsworth: Penguin Books, 1972). More recent studies include Taylor, Paul: International Organization in the Modern World. The Regional and the Global Process (London: Pinter Publishers, 1993); Lawrence, Robert Z.: Regionalism, Multilateralism, and Deeper Integration (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1996); Keating, Michael & John Loughlin (eds.): The Political Economy of Regionalism (Newbury Park: Frank Cass, 1997); Coleman, William D. & Geoffrey R. D. Underhill (eds.): Regionalism and Global Economic Integration (London: Routledge, 1998); Kahler, Miles: International Institutions and the Political Economy of Integration (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1995). Back

Note 25: See, for instance, Bertram, Christoph: Europe in the Balance. Securing the Peace Won in the Cold War (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment/Brookings Institution, 1995); Bluth, Christoph, Emil Kirchner & James Sperling (eds.): The Future of European Security (Aldershot: Dartmouth, 1995); Croft, Stuart & Phil Williams (eds.): European Security Without the Soviet Union (London: Frank Cass, 1992); Dorman, Andrew M. & Adrian Treacher: European Security. An Introduction to Security Issues in Post-Cold War Europe (Aldershot: Dartmouth, 1995); Feld, Werner J.: The Future of European Security and Defense Policy (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1993); Forndran, Erhard & Hartmut Pohlman (eds.): Europäische Sicherheit nach dem Ende des Warschauer Paktes (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 1993); Ghebaldi, Victor-Yves & Brigitte Sauerwein: European Security in the 1990s: Challenges and Perspectives (New York and Geneva: United Nations/UNIDIR, 1995); Gottstein, Klaus (ed.): Integrated Europe. Eastern and Western Perceptions of the Future (Boulder: Westview, 1992); Haglund, David G. (ed.): From Euphoria to Hysteria. Western European Security After the Cold War (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993); Hyde-Price, Adrian: European Security Beyond the Cold War. Four Scenarios for the Year 2010 (London: SAGE, 1991); Kelleher, Catherine McArdle: The Future of European Security. An Interim Assessment (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1995); Kirby, David & Nick Hooper (eds.): The Costs of Peace: Assessing Europe's Security Options (Chur, Switzerland: Harwood Academic Publishers, 1991); Mandelbaum, Michael: The Dawn of Peace in Europe (New York: Twentieth Century Fund Press, 1996); Miall, Hugh: Shaping the New Europe (London: Pinter, 1993); Ramsbotham, Oliver & Hugh Miall: Beyond Deterrence. Britain, Germany and the New European Security Debate (London: Macmillan and the Oxford Research Group, 1992); Rees, G. Wyn (ed.): International Politics in Europe. The New Agenda (London: Routledge, 1993); Remacle, Eric & Reinmund Seidelmann (eds.): Pan-European Security Redefined (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 1998); Spiezio, Kim Edward: Beyond Containment. Reconstructing European Security (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1995); Trevorton, Gregory: The Shape of the New Europe (New York: Council of Foreign Relations Press, 1992); Weidenfeld, Werner & Josef Janning (eds.): Europe in Global Change. Strategies and Options for Europe (Gütersloh: Bertelsmann Foundation Publishers, 1993). Back

Note 26: On various attempted explanations of the end of the Cold War see Allen, Pierre & Kjell Goldmann (eds.): The End of the Cold War. Evaluating Theories of International Relations (Dordrecht: Martinus Nijhoff Publishers, 1992); Armstrong, David & Erik Goldstein: The End of the Cold War (London: Frank Cass, 1990); Hogan, Michael J. (ed.): The End of the Cold War. Its Meaning and Implications (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992); Checkel, Jeffrey T.: Ideas and International Political Change: Soviet/Russian Behavior and the End of the Cold War (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1997); Risse-Kappen, Thomas: "Did "Peace Through Strength" End the Cold War? Lessons from INF", International Security, vol. 16, no. 1 (Summer 1991), pp. 162-188; idem: "Ideas Do Not Float Freely: Transnational Coalitions, Domestic Structures, and the End of the Cold War", International Organization, vol. 48, no. 2 (Spring 1994), pp. 185-214; Lemke, Douglas: "The Continuation of History: Power Transition Theory and the End of the Cold War", Journal of Peace Research, vol. 34, no. 1 (February 1997), pp. 23-36; Suganami, Hidemi: "Narratives of War Origins amd Endings: A Note on the End of the Cold War", Millennium, vol. 26, no. 3 (1997), pp. 631-649: Wohlforth, William C.: "Realism and the End of the Cold War", International Security, vol. 19, no. 3 (Winter 1994/95), pp. 91-129; idem: "Reality Check: Revising Theories of International Politics in Response to the End of the Cold War", World Politics, vol. 50, no. 4 (July 1998), pp. 650-680. A provocative argument to the effect that the Cold War ended much earlier than 1990 is Lynch, Allen: The Cold War is Over—Again (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1992). A good example of "Realist" bewilderment is Mearsheimer, John J.: "Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War", International Security, vol. 15, no. 1 (Summer 1990), pp. 5-52. A self-critical analysis is Gaddis, John Lewis: The United States and the End of the Cold War. Implications, Reconsiderations, Provocations (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1992). Back

Note 27: On multipolarity see Davis, Christopher Mark: "War and Peace in a Multipolar World: A Critique of Quincy Wright's Institutionalist Analysis of the Interwar International System", Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 19, no. 1 (March 1996), pp. 31-73; Gorce, François de la: "Disarmament and Security in a Multipolar World: Non-proliferation, Regional Cooperation, Keeping and Building the Peace", Disarmament, vol. 17, no. 2 (1994), pp. 58-76; Kegley & Raymond: op. cit. (note 7); Kupchan, Charles A.: "After Pax Americana. Benign Power, Regional Integration, and the Sources of Stable Multipolarity", International Security, vol. 23, no. 2 (Fall 1998), pp. 40-79; Riemer, Andrea K.: "Gleichgewicht in multipolaren sozialen Systemen. Widerspruch oder Forderung nach einem neuen Begriffsverständnis?", Österreichische Militärische Zeitschrift, vol. 35, no. 6 (Nov-Dec 1997), pp. 643-654; Huber, Reiner K.: "Multipolare Sicherheitssysteme für Europa. Systemanalytische Überlegungen zu einer militärischen Ausgestaltung", ibid., no. 5 (1990), pp. 412-418; idem & Rudolf Avenhaus (eds.): International Stability in a Multipolar World: Issues and Models for Analysis (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlag, 1993). For a historical analogy see Schweller, Randall: Deadly Imbalances. Tripolarity and Hitler's Strategy of World Conquest (New York: Columbia University Press, 1998). On unipolarity see Mastanduno, Michael: "Preserving the Unipolar Moment. Realist Theories and U.S. Grand Strategy after the Cold War", International Security, vol. 21, no. 4 (Spring 1997), pp. 49-88; Kapstein, Ethan B. & Michael Mastanduno (eds.): Unipolar politics. Realism and State Strategies after the Cold War (New York: Columbia University Press, 1999); Joffe, Josef: """Bismarck"" or ""Britain""? Toward an American Grand Strategy after Bipolarity", International Security, vol. 19, no. 4 (Spring 1995), pp. 94-117. Back

Note 28: Based on figures from IISS: The Military Balance, 1999-2000 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999), pp. 300-301. Back

Note 29: See e.g. Mearsheimer: loc. cit. (note 26), arguing in favour of German nuclear weapons; and idem: "The Case for a Ukrainian Nuclear Deterrent", Foreign Affairs, vol. 72, no. 3 (Summer 1993), pp. 50-66. On nuclear reductions see Karp, Regina Owen: "The START Treaty and the Future of Strategic Nuclear Arms Control", SIPRI Yearbook 1992, pp. 13-63; Fieldhouse, Richard: "Nuclear Weapons Developments and Unilateral Reduction Initiatives", ibid., pp. 66-84; Lockwood, Dunbar: "Nuclear Arms Control", SIPRI Yearbook 1993, pp. 549-589. See also Baglione, Lisa A.: "Finishing START and Achieving Unilateral Reductions: Leadership and Arms Control at the End of the Cold War", Journal of Peace Research, vol. 34, no. 2 (May 1997), pp. 135-152. Back

Note 30: Good overviews include Griffiths, Stephen Iwan: Nationalism and Ethnic Conflict. Threats to European Security (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993); Kupchan, Charles A. (ed.): Nationalism and Nationalities in the New Europe (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1995); Gurr, Ted Robert: Peoples versus States. Minorities at Risk in the New Century (Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2000); Walter, Barbara F. & Jack Snyder (eds.): Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Intervention (New York: Columbia University Press, 1999). For a historical perspective see Woolf, Stuart (ed.): Nationalism in Europe. 1815 to the Present (London: Routledge, 1996). On the legal aspects see Müllerson, Rein: International Law, Rights and Politics. Developments in Eastern Europe and the CIS (London: Routledge, 1994); Halperin, Morton & David J. Scheffer: Self-Determination in the New World Order (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Books, 1992). Back

Note 31: Huntington, Samuel P.: The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996). For a critique see Chan, Stephen: "Too Neat and Under-thought a World Order: Huntington and Civilizations", Millennium, vol. 26, no. 1 (1997), pp. 137-140; Welch, David A.: "The ""Clash of Civilizations"" Thesis as an Argument and as a Phenomenon", Security Studies, vol. 6, no. 4 (Summer 1997), pp. 197-216; Russett, Bruce M., John R. Oneal & Michaelene Cox: "Clash of Civilizations, or Realism and Liberalism Déjà Vu? Some Evidence", Journal of Peace Research, vol. 37, no. 5 (September 2000), pp. 583-608. Back

Note 32: Fukyama, Francis: The End of History and the Last Man (New York: The Free Press, 1992). Back

Note 33: Hagen, William W.: "The Balkans' Lethal Nationalisms", Foreign Affairs, vol. 78, no. 4 (July-August 1999), pp. 52-64; Ramet, Sabrina P.: Nationalism and Federalism in Yugoslavia, 1962-1991, 2nd edition (Bloomington, Indiana University Press, 1992); ida: Balkan Babel. The Disintegration of Yugoslavia from the Death of Tito to Ethnic War. Second Edition (Boulder: Westview, 1996); Mojzes, Paul: Yugoslav Inferno. Ethnoreligious Warfare in the Balkans (New York: Continuum Press, 1994); Cohen, Lenard J.: Broken Bonds. Yugoslavia's Disintegration and Balkan Politics in Transition. 2nd Edition (Boulder: Westview, 1995); Bianchini, Stefano & Paul Shoup (eds.): The Yugoslav War, Europe and the Balkans: How to Achieve Security? (Ravenna: Longo Editore Ravenna, 1995); Akhavan, Payam & Robert Howse (eds.): Yugoslavia, the Former and Future. Reflections by Scholars from the Region (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1995). On Serbia see Gordy, Eric D.: The Culture of Power in Serbia. Nationalism and the Destruction of Alternatives (University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press, 1999); Biserko, Sonja: "Serbia: Dictatorship, Implosion or Recovery", Security Dialogue, vol. 30, no. 3 (September 1999), pp. 289-290. On Bosnia see Sloan, Elinor C.: Bosnia and the New Collective Security (Westport, Ct.: Praeger Press, 1998); Burg, Steven L. & Paul S. Shoup: The War in Bosnia Herzegovina. Ethnic Conflict and International Intervention (Armonk: M. E. Sharpe, 1999); Corwin, Phillip: Dubious Mandate. A Memoir of the UN in Bosnia, Summer 1995 (Durhan: Duke University Press, 1999). On Kosovo see Malcolm, Noel: Kosovo. A Short History (Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1998); Veremis, Thanos & Evangeloss Kofos (eds.): Kosovo: Avoiding Another Balkan War (Athens: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy, 1998); Veremis, Thanos M. & Dimitrios Triataphyllou (eds.): Kosovo and the Albanian Dimension in Southern Europe: The Need for Regional Security and Conflict Prevention (Athens: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy, 1999); Mertus, Julie A.: Kosovo. How Myths and Truths Started a War (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1999). Back

Note 34: On Chechnya see Lieven, Anatol: Chechnya. Tombstone of Russian Power. New Edition (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1999); Dunlop, John B.: Russia Confronts Chechnya. Roots of a Separatist Conflict (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998); Baev, Pavel: "Russia's Stance against Secessions: From Chechnya to Kosovo", International Peacekeeping, vol. 6, no. 3 (Autumn 1999), pp. 73-94. Back

Note 35: Kurz, Heinz D. (ed.): United Germany and the New Europe (London: Edward Elgar, 1993); Merkl, Peter H.: German Unification in the European Context (University Park, Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania State University Press, 1993); Stares, Paul B. (ed.): The New Germany and the New Europe (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1992); Stent, Angela E.: Russia and Germany Reborn. Unification, the Soviet Collapse, and the New Europe (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1999); Rotfeld & Stützle (eds.): op. cit. (note 22), passim. Back

Note 36: Keohane, Robert O. & Stanley Hoffman: "Conclusion: Structure, Strategy and Institutional Roles", in Robert O. Keohane, Joseph S. Nye & Stanley Hoffman (eds.): After the Cold War. International Institutions and State Strategies in Europe, 1989-1991 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1993), pp. 381-404. On the reorientation of particularly the East and Central European states see Gie_mann, Hans-Joachim & Ursula Schlichting (eds.): Handbuch Sicherheit. Militär und Sicherheit in Mittel- und Osteuropa. Daten - Fakten - Analysen (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 1995); Goralczyk, Bogdan, Wojciech Kostecki & Katarzyna Zukrowska (eds.): In Pursuit of Europe. Transformations of Post-Communist States 1989-1994 (Warsaw: Institute of Political Studies, Polish Academy of Sciences, 1995); Karp, Regina Cowen (ed.): Central and Eastern Europe. The Challenge of Transition (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993); Michta, Andrew A.: East-Central Europe After the Warsaw Pact: Security Dilemmas in the 1990s (New York: Greenwood Press, 1992). Back

Note 37: On the Warsaw Pact see Holloway, David & Jane M.O. Sharp (eds.): The Warsaw Pact. Alliance in Transition (London: Macmillan, 1984); Jones, Christopher D.: Soviet Influence in Eastern Europe. Political Autonomy and the Warsaw Pact (New York: Praeger, 1981); Johnson, Alfred Ross,, Robert W. Dean & Alexander Alexiev: East European Military Establishments: The Warsaw Pact Northern Tier (Santa Monica: RAND, 1980); MacGregor, Douglas: "Uncertain Allies? East European Forces in the Warsaw Pact", Soviet Studies, vol. 38, no. 2 (1986), pp. 227-247; idem: The Soviet-East German Military Alliance (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989) Back

Note 38: Clarke, Douglas: "A Guide to Europe's New Security Architecture", European Security, vol. 1, no. 2 (Summer 1992), pp. 126-132; Cornish, Paul: "European Security: the End of Architecture and the New NATO", International Affairs, vol. 72, no. 4 (October 1996), pp. 751-769; Lodgaard, Sverre: "Competing Schemes for Europe: The CSCE, NATO and the European Union", Security Dialogue, vol. 23, no. 3 (September 1992), pp. 57-68; Anderson, Stephanie: "EU, NATO and CSCE Responses to the Yugoslav Crisis: Testing Europe's New Security Architecture", European Security, vol. 4, no. 2 (Summer 1995), pp. 328-353. On the general phenomenon of buck-passing see Christensen, Thomas J. & Jack Snyder: "Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity", International Organization, vol. 44, no. 2 (1990), pp. 137-168. Back

Note 39: A good example of this is Haas, Richard: The Reluctant Sheriff. The United States after the Cold War (Washington, D.C.: Council of Foreign Relations, 1997). On the general US attitude to multilateralism see Ruggie, John Gerard: Winning the Peace. America and World Order in the New Era (New York: Columbia University Press and Twentieth Century Fund, 1996); idem: op. cit. (note 23). See also Krause, Keith & W. Andy Knight (eds.): State, Society, and the UN System: Changing Perspectives on Multilateralism (Tokyo: United Nations University Press, 1995). Back

Note 40: Good examples of this phenomenon are available in Daniel, Donald C.F., Brad Hayes & Chantall de Jonge Ouddraat: Coercive Inducement and the Containment of International Crises (Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1999). Back

Note 41: Based on the table in SIPRI Yearbook 2000, p. 182. Back

Note 42: See, for instance, Lucas, Michael R. (ed.): The CSCE in the 1990s: Constructing European Security and Cooperation (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 1993); idem: "The OSCE Code of Conduct and Its Relevance in Contemporary Europa", Aussenpolitik, vol. 47, no. 3 (3rd Quarter 1996), pp. 223-235; Hopmann, P. Terrence: "Building Security in Post-Cold War Eurasia. The OSCE and U.S. Foreign Policy", Peaceworks, no. 31 (Washington, D.C.: US Institute of Peace, 1999). Back

Note 43: Good examples of the initial enthusiasm are the works by Dieter S. Lutz. See e.g. idem: "Towards a European Peace Order and a System of Collective Security", Bulletin of Peace Proposals, vol. 21, no. 1 (1990), pp. 71-76; idem: Sicherheit 2000. Gemeinsame Sicherheit im Übergang vom Abschreckungsregime zu einem System Kollektiver Sicherheit in und für Europa (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 1991); idem (ed.): Gemeinsame Sicherheit, Kollektive Sicherheit, Common Peace. Bd. VI: Auf dem Weg zu einer Neuen Europäischen Friedensordnung (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 1991). idem: "Europe on the Way to a Regional System of Collective Security", Disarmament, vol. 15, no. 4 (1992), pp. 13-26; idem: Deutschland und die Kollektive Sicherheit. Politische, rechtliche und programmatische Aspekte (Leverkusen: Leske + Budrich, 1993); idem: "Für eine Europäische Sicherheitsgemeinschaft. Europa zwischen ""Protektorat"" und Eigenständigkeit", Internationale Politik, vol. 53, no. 7 (July 1998), pp. 13-20. Other (somewhat more realistic) advocacies of collective security include Brauch, Hans Günter: "From Collective Self-Defence to a Collective Security System in Europe", Disarmament, vol. 14, no. 1 (1991), pp. 1-20; Møller, Bjørn: "Multinationality, Defensivity and Collective Security", in Jörg Calließ (ed.): Rüstung—Wieviel? Wozu? Wohin?, Loccumer Protokolle, no. 63/93 (Rehburg-Loccum: Evangelische Akademie Loccum, 1994), pp. 251-290; idem: "UN Military Demands and Non-Offensive Defence. Collective Security, Humanitarian Intervention and Peace Operations", Peace and Conflict Studies, vol. 3, no. 2 (December 1996), pp. 1-20; Johansen, Robert C.: "Lessons for Collective Security", World Policy Journal, vol. 8, no. 3 (Summer 1991), pp. 561-574; Weiss, Thomas G. (ed.): Collective Security in a Changing World (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1993); Lyons, Gene M.: "The New Collective Security", Peace and the Sciences, vol. 24 (Vienna: International Institute for Peace, December 1993), pp. 4-10; Kupchan, Charles A. & Clifford A. Kupchan: "Concerts, Collective Security, and the Future of Europe", International Security, vol. 16, no. 1 (Summer 1991), pp. 114-161; idem & idem: "The Promise of Collective Security", ibid., vol. 20, no. 1 (Summer 1995), pp. 52-61; Gullikstad, Espen: "Collective Security in Post-Cold War Europe", NUPI Report, no. 176 (Oslo: NUPI, 1994); Downs, George W. (ed.): Collective Security Beyond the Cold War (Ann Arbor, Michigan: University of Michigan Press, 1994); Jaberg, Sabine: Systeme kollektiver Sicherheit in und für Europa in Theorie, Praxis und Entwurf. Ein systemwissenschaftlicher Versuch (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 1998); Hook, Steven W. & Richard Robyn: "Regional Collective Security in Europe: Past Patterns and Future Prospects", European Security, vol. 8, no. 3 (Autumn 1999), pp. 82-100. More critical analyses include Betts, Richard K.: "Systems for Peace or Causes of War? Collective Security, Arms Control, and the New Europe", International Security, vol. 17, no. 1 (Summer 1992), pp. 5-43; Yost, David: "The New NATO and Collective Security", Survival, vol. 40, no. 2 (Summer 1998), pp. 135-160; Sloan, Elinor C.: Bosnia and the New Collective Security (Westport, Ct.: Praeger Press, 1998); Russell, Richard: "The Chimera of Collective Security in Europa", European Security, vol. 4, no. 2 (Summer 1995), pp. 241-255; Nelson, Daniel: "America and Collective Security in Europe", The Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 17, no. 4 (December 1994), pp. 105-124; Miller, Lynn H.: "The Idea and the Reality of Collective Security", Global Governance, vol. 5, no. 3 (July-Sept. 1999), pp. 303-332; Joffe, Josef: "Collective Security and the Future of Europe: Failed Dreams and Dead Ends", Survival, vol. 34, no. 1 (Spring 1992), pp. 36-50; Cusack, Thomas R. & Richard J. Stoll: "Collective Security and State Survival in the Interstate System", International Studies Quarterly, vol. 38, no. 1 (March 1994), pp. 33-59; Clark, Mark T.: "The Trouble with Collective Security", Orbis, vol. 39, no. 2 (Spring 1995), pp. 237-258; Butfoy, Andrew: "Themes Within the Collective Security Idea", The Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 16, no. 4 (December 1993), pp. 490-510. Back

Note 44: A full list is available at http://www.osce.org/field_activities/field_activities.html. Back

Note 45: On preventive diplomacy see Boutros-Ghali, Boutros: "An Agenda for Peace. Preventive Diplomacy, Peacemaking and Peace-Keeping. Report of the Secretary-General Pursuant to the Statement Adopted by the Summit Meeting of the Security Council on 31 January 1992", in Adam Roberts & Benedict Kingsbury (eds.): United Nations, Divided World. The UN's Role in International Relations, New Expanded Edition (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993), pp. 468-498; Lund, Michael S.: Preventing Violent Conflicts. A Strategy for Preventive Diplomacy (Washington, DC: United States Institute for Peace, 1996); Findlay, Trevor: "Armed Conflict Prevention, Management and Resolution", SIPRI Yearbook 1996, pp. 31-74; Miall, Hugh, Oliver Ramsbotham & Tom Woodhouse: Contemporary Conflict Resolution: The Prevention, Management and Transformation of Deadly Conflict (Cambridge: Polity Press, 1999); Väyrynen, Raimo: "Toward Effective Conflict Prevention: A Comparison of Different Instruments", International Journal of Peace Studies, vol. 2, no. 1 (January 1997), pp. 1-18; Stedman, Stephen John: "Alchemy for a New World Order. Overselling ""Preventive Deplomacy""", Foreign Affairs, vol. 74, no. 3 (May-June 1995), pp. 14-20. Back

Note 46: On counterfactuals see Lebow, Richard Ned: "What's So Different About a Counterfactual?", World Politics, vol. 25, no. 4 (July 2000), pp. 550-585. Back

Note 47: See Troebst, Stefan: "The Kosovo Conflict", SIPRI Yearbook 1999, pp. 47-62. Back

Note 48: Sergounin, Alexander: "Post-Communist Security Thinking in Russia: Changing Paradigms", Working Papers, no. 4 (Copenhagen: Copenhagen Peace Research Institute, 1997); idem: "Russian Domestic Debate on NATO Enlargement: From Phobia to Damage Limitation", European Security, vol. 6, no. 4 (Winter 1997), pp. 55-71. See also Alexandrova, Olga: "Divergent Russian Foreign Policy Concepts", Aussenpolitik. English Edition, vol. 44, no. 4 (Fall 1993), pp. 363-372; Allison, Roy & Christoph Bluth (eds.): Security Dilemmas in Russia and Eurasia (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1998); Aron, Leon & Kenneth M. Jensen (eds.): The Emergence of Russian Foreign Policy (Washington, D.C.: United States Institute for Peace, 1994); Baranovsky, Vladimir (ed.): Russia and Europe. The Emerging Security Agenda (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1997); Black, J.L.: Russia Faces NATO Expansion. Bearing Gifts or Bearing Arms? (Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield, 2000); Blackwill, Robert D. & Sergei A. Karaganov (eds.): Damage Limitation or Crisis? Russia and the Outside World (London: Brassey's, 1994); Buszinski, Leszek: Russian Foreign Policy after the Cold War (Westport, Connecticut: Praeger Press, 1996); Buszynski, Leszek: "Russia and the West: Towards Renewed Geopolitical Rivalry?", Survival, vol. 37, no. 3 (Autumn 1995), pp. 104-125; Criss, Nur Bilge & Serdar Güner: "Geopolitical Configurations: The Russia-Turkey-Iran Triangle", Security Dialogue, vol. 30, no. 3 (September 1999), pp. 365-376; Dawisha, Karen & Bruce Parrott: Russia and the New States of Eurasia (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994); Erickson, John: """Russia Will Not Be Trifled With"": Geopolitical Facts and Fantasies", The Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 22, no. 2/3 (June/September 1999), pp. 242-268; Golz, Thomas: "Letter from Eurasia: the Hidden Russian Hand", Foreign Policy, no. 92 (Fall 1993), pp. 92-116; Holden, Gerard: Russia and the Post-Cold War World. History and the Nation in Post-Soviet Security Politics (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1994); Likhotal, Alexander: "The New Russia and Eurasia", Security Dialogue, vol. 23, no. 3 (September 1992), pp. 9-18; Mandelbaum, Michael: "Westernizing Russia and China", Foreign Affairs, vol. 76, no. 3 (May-June 1997), pp. 80-95; McFaul, Michael: "A Precarious Peace: Domestic Politics in the Making of Russian Foreign Policy", International Security, vol. 22, no. 3 (Winter 1997/98), pp. 5-35; Mikoyan, Sergo A.: "Russia, the US and Regional Conflict in Eurasia", Survival, vol. 40, no. 3 (Autumn 1998), pp. 112-126; Petrov, Yuri: "Russia in Geopolitical Space", Eurobalkans, no. 19 (Summer 1995), pp. 26-29; Rubinstein, Alvin Z.: "The Geopolitical Pull on Russia", Orbis, vol. 38, no. 4 (Fall 1994), pp. 567-583; Simon, Gerhard: "La Russia: un hégémonie eurasienne?", Politique Étrangère, vol. 59, no. 1 (1st Quarter 1994), pp. 29-48; idem: "Russia's Identity and International Politics", Aussenpolitik, vol. 48, no. 3 (3rd Quarter 1997), pp. 245-256; Stavrakis, Peter J., John DeBardeleben & Larry Black (eds.): Beyond the Monolith. The Emergence of Regionalism in Post-Soviet Russia (Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press, 1997); Trofiemenko, Henry: Russian National Interests and the Current Crisis in Russia (Aldershot: Ashgate, 1999); Tsipko, Alexander: "A New Russian Identity or Old Russia's Reintegration?", Security Dialogue, vol. 25, no. 4 (December 1994), pp. 443-456; Wallander, Celste A. (ed.): The Sources of Russian Foreign Policy After the Cold War (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1996). Back

Note 49: Haglund, David G. & Olaf Mager (eds.): Homeward Bound? Allied Forces in the New Germany (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1992). On the past deployment see Duke, Simon: United States Military Forces and Installations in Europe (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1989); Arkin, William M. & Richard Fieldhouse: Nuclear Battlefields. Global Links in the Arms Race (Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1985). Back

Note 50: Bebler, Anton A. (ed.): The Challenge of NATO Expansion (Westport, Connecticut, 1999); Carpenter, Ted Galen & Barbara Conry (ed.) NATO Enlargement. Illusions and Reality (Washington, D.C.: Cato Institute, 1997); Dutkiewicz, Piotr & Robert J. Jackson (eds.): NATO Looks East (Westport, Ct.: Praeger, 1998); Solomon, Gerald B.: The NATO Enlargement Debate, 1990-1997 (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1998); Haglund, S. Neil MacFarlane & Joel S. Sokolsky (eds.): NATO's Eastern Dilemmas (Boulder: Westview, 1994); Haglund, David G. (ed.): Will NATO Go East? The Debate Over Enlarging the Atlantic Alliance (Kingston: Centre for International Relations, Queen's University, 1996); idem: "NATO Expansion and European Security after the Washington Summit—What Next?", European Security, vol. 8, no. 1 (Spring 1999), pp. 1-15; Asmus, Ronald D., Richard L. Kugler & F. Stephen Larrabee: "NATO Expansion: The Next Steps", Survival, vol. 37, no. 1 (Spring 1995), pp. 7-33; Asmus, Ronald D. & F. Stephen Larrabee: "NATO and the Have-Nots. Reassurance After Enlargement", Foreign Affairs, vol. 75, no. 6 (Nov-Dec. 1996), pp. 13-20; Austin, Daniel F.C.: "NATO Expansion to Northern Europe", European Security, vol. 8, no. 1 (Spring 1999), pp. 79-90. On the Russian response see Black, J.L.: Russia Faces NATO Expansion. Bearing Gifts or Bearing Arms? (Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield, 2000); Averre, Derek: "NATO Expansion and Russian National Interests", European Security, vol. 7, no. 1 (Spring 1998), pp. 10-54; Fierke, K.M.: "Dialogues of Manoeuvre and Entanglement: NATO, Russia, and the CEECs", Millennium, vol. 28, no. 1 (1999), pp. 27-52. For a critique of expansion see Brown, Michael E.: "The Flawed Logic of NATO Expansion", Survival, vol. 37, no. 1 (Spring 1995), pp. 34-52. Back

Note 51: Gerosa, Guido: "The North Atlantic Cooperation Council", European Security, vol. 1, no. 3 (Autumn 1992), pp. 273-294. Back

Note 52: Borawski, John: "Partnership for Peace and Beyond", International Affairs, vol. 71, no. 2 (April 1995), pp. 233-246; Williams, Nick: "Partnership for Peace: Permanent Fixture or Declining Asset?", Survival, vol. 38, no. 1 (Spring 1996), pp. 98-110; Santis, Hugh De: "Romancing NATO: Partnership for Peace and East European Stability", The Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 17, no. 4 (December 1994), pp. 61-81; Sanz, Timothy: "NATO's Partnership for Peace Program: Published Literature", European Security, vol. 4, no. 4 (Winter 1995), pp. 676-696; Scofield, P.J.F.: "Partnership for Peace: The NATO Initiative of January 1994. A View from the Partnership Coordination Cell", RUSI Journal, vol. 141, no. 2 (April 1996), pp. 8-15; Rynning, Sten: "A Balancing Act: Russia and the Partnership for Peace", Cooperation and Conflict, vol. 31, no. 2 (June 1996), pp. 211-234. Back

Note 53: http://www.naa.be/docu/1998/argen-e.html. See also Sloan, Stanley R.: "US Perspectives on NATO's Future", International Affairs, vol. 71, no. 2 (April 1995), pp. 217-232. Back

Note 54: Kay, Sean: "After Kosovo: NATO's Credibility Dilemma", Security Dialogue, vol. 31, no. 1 (March 2000), pp. 71-84. On the (in)efficiency of the chosen military strategy see, for instance, Byman, Daniel A. & Matthew C. Waxman: "Kosovo and the Great Air Power Debate", International Security, vol. 24, no. 4 (Spring 2000), pp. 5-38; Posen, Barry R.: "The War for Kosovo: Serbia's Political-Military Strategy", ibid., pp. 39-84; Daalder, Ivo H. & Michael E. O'Hanlon: Winning Ugly. NATO's War to Save Kosovo (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2000); Møller, Bjørn: "The UN, the USA and NATO. Humanitarian Intervention in the Light of Kosovo", Working Papers, no. 23 (Copenhagen: Copenhagen Peace Research Institute, 1999); Cordesman, Anthony: "The Lessons and Non-Lessons of the Air and Missile War in Kosovo". Report to the USAF XP Strategy Forum, 8 July 1999, available at http://www.csis.org/kosovo/Lessons.html. Back

Note 55: http://www.nato.int/docu/pr/1999/p99-063e.htm. Back

Note 56: http://www.nato.int/docu/pr/1999/p99-065e.htm. Back

Note 57: On the debate on NATO's new roles see, for instance, the following; Cambone, Stephen A. (ed.): NATO's Role in European Stability (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1995); Goldstein, Walter (ed.): Security in Europe. The Role of NATO after the Cold War (London: Brassey's, 1994); Gordon, Philip H. (ed.): NATO's Transformation. The Changing Shape of the Atlantic Alliance (Lanham, Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield, 1997); Papacosma, S. Victor & Mary Ann Heiss (eds.): NATO in the Post-Cold War Wra: Does It Have a Future? (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1995); Varwick, Johannes & Wichard Woyke: NATO 2000 (Opladen: Leske + Budrich, 1999); Yost, David: NATO Transformed. The Alliance's New Roles in International Security (Washington, D.C.: The United States Institute for Peace Press, 1998); Carpenter, Ted Galen: "Conflicting Agendas and the Furure of NATO", The Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 17, no. 4 (December 1994), pp. 143-164; Clemens, Clay (ed.): NATO and the Quest for Post-Cold War Security (Houndmills: Macmillan, 1997); Asmus, Ronald D., Richard L. Kugler & F. Stephen Larrabee: "Building a New NATO", Foreign Affairs, vol. 72, no. 4 (September-October 1993), pp. 28-40; Bailes, Alyson J.K.: "NATO: Towards a New Synthesis", Survival, vol. 38, no. 3 (Autumn 1996), pp. 27-40; Eyal, Jonathan: "NATO and European Security", Perspectives (Prague: Institute of International Relations), no. 6-7 (1996), pp. 17-27; Haglund, David G.: "Must NATO Fail? Theories, Myths and Policy Dilemmas", Centre for International Relations Occasional Paper, no. 51 (Kingston Ontario: Queen's University, 1995); Lepgold, Joseph: "NATO's Post-Cold War Collective Action Problem", International Security, vol. 23, no. 1 (Summer 1998), pp. 78-106; McCalla, Robert B.: "NATO's Persistence after the Cold War", International Organization, vol. 50, no. 3 (Summer 1996), pp. 445-475; Roper, John: "NATO's New Role in Crisis Management", The International Spectator, vol. 34, no. 2 (April-June 1999), pp. 51-62. Back

Note 58: Barry, Charles: "NATO's Combined Joint Task Forces in Theory and Practice", Survival, vol. 38, no. 1 (Spring 1996), pp. 81-97; Bensahel, Nora: "Separable but not Separate Forces: NATO's Development of the Combined Joint Task Force", European Security, vol. 8, no. 2 (Summer 1999), pp. 52-72. For a general overview see Duffield, John S.: Power Rules. The Evolution of NATO's Conventional Force Posture (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1995). On the European element see O'Hanlon, Michael: "Transforming NATO: The Role of European Forces", Survival, vol. 39, no. 3 (Autumn 1997), pp. 5-15. Back

Note 59: Schuman, Robert: "The Schuman Declaration", in Brent F. Nelsen & Alexander C-G. Stubb (eds.): The European Union. Readings on the Theory and Practice of European Integration (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1994 ), pp. 11-12. See also Mitrany, David: "A Working Peace System", ibid., pp. 77-97. Back

Note 60: Se, for instance, Wæver, Ole: "Insecurity, Security and Asecurity in the West European Non-War Community", in Adler & Barnett (eds.): op. cit. (note 4), pp. 69-118; idem: "Integration as Security: Constructing a Europe at Peace", in Charles Kupchan (ed.): Atlantic Security: Contending Visions (New York: Council on Foreign Relations Press, 1998), pp. 45-63; or Linklater, Andrew: The Transformation of Political Community: Ethical Foundations of the Post-Westphalian Era (Oxford: Polity Press, 1998). Back

Note 61: Light, Margot, Stephen White & John Loewenhardt: "A Wider Europe:: the Vierw from Moscow and Kiev", International Affairs, vol. 76, no. 1 (January 2000), pp. 77-88; Wallace, William: "From the Atlantic to the Bug, from the Arctic to the Tigris? The Transformation of the EU", International Affairs, vol. 76, no. 3 (July 2000), pp. 475-494; Friis, Lykke (ed.): An Ever Larger Union? EU Enlargement and European Integration (Copenhagen: Danish Institute of International Affairs, 1999). Back

Note 62: Caplan, Richard: "The European Community's Recognition of New States in Yugoslavia: The Strategic Implication", Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 21, no. 3 (September 1998), pp. 24-45; Cross, Peter & Guenola Rasamoelina (eds.): Conflict Prevention Policy of the European Union. Recent Engagements, Future Instruments. Yearbook 1998/99 (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 1999); Jeffrey, Charlie & Roland Sturm: Federalism, Unification and European Integration (London: Frank Cass, 1993); Nørgaard, Ole, Thomas Pedersen & Nikolaj Petersen (eds.): The European Community in World Politics (London: Pinter, 1993); Sæter, Martin: "Stabilitetspakt for Europa: EUs sikkerhetspolitiske profilering i det større Europa", International Politikk, vol. 52, no. 2 (1994), pp. 199-214; Smith, Martin A.: "The European Union and the United States in a Superpower Context", European Security, vol. 7, no. 1 (Spring 1998), pp. 66-73; Törnudd, Klaus: "Ties that Bind to the Recent Past. Debating Security Policy in Finland within the Context of Membership of the European Union", Cooperation and Conflict, vol. 31, no. 1 (March 1996), pp. 37-68. Back

Note 63: See, e.g. Kaiser, Karl & Pierre Lellouche (eds.): Deutsch-Französiche Sicherheitspolitik. Auf dem Wege zur Gemeinsamkeit? (Bonn: Europa Union, 1986); Manfraß, Klaus (ed.): Paris-Bonn. Eine dauerhafte Bindung schwieriger Partner (Sigmaringen: Thorbecke, 1984); Schmidt, Peter (ed.): In the Midst of Change: On the Development of West European Security and Defence Cooperation (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 1992); Cahen, Alfred: "Relaunching the Western European Union: Implications for the Atlantic Alliance", NATO Review, no. 4 (1986), pp. 6-12; Hintermann, Eric: "European Defence: A Role for the Western European Union", European Affairs, vol. 2, no. 3 (1988), pp. 31-38. For an American perspective see Wells, Samuel F.: "The United States and European Defence Cooperation", Survival, vol. 27, no. 4 (July-August 1985), pp. 158-168. For an update see Scholz, Rupert: Weltpolitische und europäische Faktoren der europäischen Sicherheit - NATO und WEU nach der Auflösung des Warschauer Paktes (Bonn: Bouvier Verlag, 1993); Back

Note 64: Rees, G. Wyn: The Western European Union at the Crossroads. Between Trans-Atlantic Solidarity and European Integration (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1998); Varwick, Johannes: Sicherheit und Integration in Europa. Zur Renaissance der Westeuropäischen Union (Opladen: Leske + Budrich Verlag, 1998); McKenzie, Mary M. & Peter H. Loedel (eds.): The Promise and Reality of European Security Cooperation (Westport, Connecticut: Praeger, 1998). Back

Note 65: On US perspectives on European defence cooperation see Gärtner, Heinz: "European Security, NATO and the Transatlantic Link: Crisis Management", European Security, vol. 7, no. 3 (Autumn 1998), pp. 1-13; Kupchan, Charles A.: "In Defence of European Defence; An American Perspective", Survival, vol. 42, no. 2 (Summer 2000), pp. 16-32; Lansford, Tom: "The Triumph of Transatlanticism: NATO and the Evolution of European Security after the Cold War", Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 22, no. 1 (March 1999), pp. 1-28; Whalen, Edward: "EuroNATO: An Alliance for the Future", European Security, vol. 3, no. 3 (Autumn 1994), pp. 441-462. Back

Note 66: Cogan, Charles G.: Forced to Choose: France, the Atlantic Alliance, and NATO—Then and Now (Westport: Praeger Press, 1997). Back

Note 67: For the background see Harden, Sheila (ed.): Neutral States and the European Community (London: Brassey's, UK, 1994). On Finland's abandonment of neutrality constraints see Arter, David: "Finland: From Neutrality to NATO?", European Security, vol. 5, no. 4 (Winter 1996), pp. 614-632; Blomberg, Jaako: "Finland's Evolving Security Policy", NATO Review, vol. 41, no. 1 (February 1993), pp. 12-16; Jalonen, Olli-Pekka & Unto Vesa: "Something Old, Something New, Something Borrowed, Something Blue. Finland's Defence Policy in a Changing Security Environment", Cooperation and Conflict, vol. 27, no. 4 (December 1992), pp. 377-396. On Denmark see Dansk Udenrigspolitisk Institut: Udviklingen i EU siden 1992 på de områder, der er omfattet af de danske forbehold (Copenhagen: DUPI, 2000), pp. 89-144, 242-249. Back

Note 68: Heisbourg, François: "Europe's Strategic Ambitions: The Limits of Ambiguity", Survival, vol. 42, no. 2 (Summer 2000), pp. 5-15; Howorth, Jolyon: "Britain, France and the European Defence Initiative", ibid., pp. 33-55; Maull, Hanns W.: "Germany and the Use of Force: Still a ""Civilian Power""?", ibid., pp. 56-80; Andréani, Gilles: "Why Institutions Matter", ibid., pp. 81-95. See also Ham, Peter Van: "The Prospects for a European Security and Defence Identity", European Security, vol. 4, no. 4 (Winter 1995), pp. 523-545; idem: "Europe's Precarious Centre: France-German Co-operation and the CFSP", ibid., vol. 8, no. 4 (Winter 1999), pp. 1-26; Howorth, Jolyon & Anand Menon: The European Union and National Defence Policy (London: Routledge, 1997). See also Sharp, Jane M.O. (ed.): About Turn, Forward March with Europe. New Direction for Defence and Security Policy (London: IPPR and Rivers Oram Press, 1996); Bailes, Alyson J.K.: "European Defence and Security. The Role of NATO, WEU and EU", Security Dialogue, vol. 27, no. 1 (March 1996), pp. 55-64; Bonvicini, Gianni, Murizio Cremasco, Reinhardt Rummel & Peter Schmidt (eds.): A Renewed Partnership for Europe. Tackling European Security Challenges by EU-NATO Interaction (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 1996); Taylor, Trevor (ed.): Reshaping European Defence (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1994). Back

Note 69: See, for instance, Nye, Joseph S., Jr.: "The US and Europe: Continental Drift?", International Affairs, vol. 76, no. 1 (January 2000), pp. 51-60; Cornish, Paul: Partnership in Crisis. The US, Europe and the Fall and Rise of NATO (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1997); Kaplan, Lawrence S.: The Long Entanglement. The United States and NATO after Fifty Years (Westport, Connecticut, 1999); Peterson, John: Europe and America in the 1990s. The Prospects for Partnership (Aldershot: Edward Elgar, 1993); Lansford, Tom & Steve Yetiv: "Euro-American Rivalry and Security in the Persian Gulf", Defense Analysis, vol. 13, no. 1 (April 1997), pp. 103-117. Back

Note 70: Based on figures from IISS: loc. cit. (note 28). Back

Note 71: On terrorism see Kushner, Harvey W. (ed.): The Future of Terrorism. Violence in the New Millennium (London: Sage, 1998); Falkenrath, Richard A., Robert D. Newman & Bradley A. Thayer: America's Achilles' Heel. Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Terrorism and Covert Attack (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1998); Heymann, Philip B.: Terrorism and America. A Commonsense Strategy for a Democratic Society (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1998); Enders, Walter & Todd Sandler: "Transnational Terrorism in the Post-Cold War Era", International Studies Quarterly, vol. 43, no. 1 (March 1999), pp. 145-167; Laqueur, Walter: "The New Face of Terrorism", The Washington Quarterly, vol. 21, no. 4 (Autumn 1998), pp. 169-178; Simon, Steven & Daniel Benjamin: "America and the New Terrorism", Survival, vol. 42, no. 1 (Spring 2000), pp. 59-75. On rogue states see Klare, Michael: Rogue States and Nuclear Outlaws. America's Search for a New Foreign Policy (New York: Hill and Wang, 1995); Tanter, Raymon: Rogue Regimes. Terrorism and Proliferation (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1998). On ballistic missile defence see Denoon, David B.H.: Ballistic Missile Defense in the Post-Cold War Era (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1995); Lewis, George, Lisbeth Gronlund & David Wright: "National Missile Defense: A Indefensible System", Foreign Policy, no. 117 (Winter 1999), pp. 120-137; Robb, Charles S.: "Star Wars II", The Washington Quarterly, vol. 22, no. 1 (Winter 2000), pp. 81-86; Hildreth, Steven A. & Jason D. Ellis: "Allied Support for Theater Missile Defense", Orbis, vol. 40, no. 1 (Winter 1996), pp. 101-121; Valentino, Benjamin: "Allies No More: Small Nuclear Powers and Opponents of Ballistic Missiles Defenses in the Post-Cold War Era", Security Studies, vol. 7, no. 2 (Winter 1997), pp. 215-234. Back

Note 72: Thucydides: The Peloponnesian War (Harmondsworth: Penguin, 1972), p. 402. Back

Note 73: On the (alleged) Revolution in Military Affairs see Cohen, Eliot A.: "A Revolution in Warfare", Foreign Affairs, vol. 75, no. 2 (March/April 1996), pp. 37-54; Keaney, Thomas A. & idem: Revolution in Warfare? Air Power in the Persian Gulf (Annapolis, Maryland: Naval Institute Press, 1995); Cushman, John H.: "Implications of the Gulf War for Future Military Strategy", in L. Benjamin Ederington & Michael J. Mazarr (eds.): Turning Point. The Gulf War and U.S. Military Strategy (Boulder: Westview Press, 1994), pp. 79-101; McKitrick, Jeffrey et al.: "The Revolution in Military Affairs", in Barry R. Schneider & Lawrence E. Grinter (eds.): Battlefield of the Future. 21st Century Warfare Issues (Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama: Air University, 1995), pp. 65-94; Arquilla, John & David Ronfeldt (eds): In Athena's Camp. Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age (Santa Monica: RAND, 1997). For a comparison of the various theories see Biddle, Stephen: "The Past as Prologue: Assessing Theories of Future Warfare", Security Studies, vol. 8, no. 1 (Autumn 1998), pp. 1-74. On US casualty-scaredness Luttwak, Edward N.: "A Post-Heroic Military Policy", Foreign Affairs, vol. 75, no. 4 (July-August 1996), pp. 33-44; Gentry, John A.: "Military Force in an Age of National Cowardice", The Washington Quarterly, vol. 21, no. 4 (Autumn 1998), pp. 179-191; Walt, Stephen M.: "Musclebound: The Limits of U.S. Power", Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, vol. 55, no. 2 (March-April 1999), pp. 44-48. Back

Note 74: Hartley, Keith & Tood Sandler: "NATO Burden-Sharing: Past and Future", Journal of Peace Research, vol. 36, no. 6 (November 1999), pp. 639-664. On the background see Joffe, Joseph: The Limited Partnership. Europe, the United States and the Burdens of Alliance (Cambridge, MA. 1987: Ballinger), pp. 1-44. Back

Note 75: Neuman, Stephanie (ed.): International Relations Theory and the Third World (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1998). Back

Note 76: Moorcraft, Paul L.: African Nemesis. War and Revolution in Southern Africa 1945-2010 (London: Brassey's, UK, 1994). Back

Note 77: Berridge, Geoff R.: "The Superpowers and Southern Africa", in Roy Allison & Phil Williams, eds.: Superpower Conpetition and Crisis Prevention in the Third World (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990), pp. 206-226; Zacarias, Agostinho: Security and the State in Southern Africa (London: I.B. Tauris, 1999), pp. 62-92; Davis, R. Hunt Jr. & Peter J. Schraeder: "South Africa", in Peter J. Schraeder (ed.): Intervention into the 1990s. U.S. Foreign Policy in the Third World. 2nd Edition (Boulder and London: Lynne Rienner, 1992), pp. 247-267; Rodman, Peter W.: More Precious Than Peace. The Cold War and the Struggle for the Third World (New York: Charles Scribner's Sons, 1994), pp. 163-182, 358-399; Hopf, Ted: Peripheral Visions. Deterrence Theory and American Foreign Policy in the Third World, 1965-1990 (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1994), pp. 61-116;
Krassin, Yuri: "The USSR and the Third World: A Historical Perspective", in Mohiaddin Mesbahi (ed.): Russia and the Third World in the Post-Soviet Era (Gainesville: University Press of Florida, 1994), pp. 109-124; MacFarlane, Stephen Neil: "Russia, Africa, and the End of the Cold War", ibid., pp. 225-249. Back

Note 78: Thomas, Scott: "Africa and the End of the Cold War: an Overview of Impacts", in Sola Akinrinade & Amadu Sesay (eds.): Africa in the Post-Cold War International System (London: Pinter, 1998), pp. 5-27; Wright, Stephen: "Africa and Global Society: Marginality, Conditionality and Conjuncture", ibid., pp. 133-146. Back

Note 79: Sahnoun, Mohamed: Somalia. The Missed Opportunities (Washington, DC: United States Institute for Peace, 1994); Lyons, Terrence & Ahmed I. Samatar: Somalia. State Collapse, Multilateral Intervention, and Strategies for Political Reconstruction. Brookings Occasional Papers. (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1995); Hirsch, John L. & Robert B. Oakley: Somalia and Operation Restore Hope. Reflections on Peacemaking and Peacekeeping (Washington, D.C.: United States Institute for Peace Press, 1995); Heinreich, Wolfgang: Building the Peace. Experiences of Collaborative Peacebuilding in Somalia 1993-1996 (Uppsala: Life and Peace Institute, 1998); Baynham, Simon: "Somalia—UN at the Crossroads", in African Defence Review. A Working Paper Series, no. 15 (Halfway House, RSA: Institute for Defence Policy, 1994); Clark, Jeffrey: "Debacle in Somalia: Failure of Collective Response", in Lori Fisler Damrosch (ed.): Enforcing Restraint. Collective Intervention in International Conflicts (New York: Council of Foreign Relations Press, 1994), pp. 205-240; Lewis, Ioan & James Mayall: "Somalia", in James Mayall (ed.): The New Interventionism 1991-1994. United Nations Experience in Cambodia, former Yugoslavia and Somalia (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996), pp. 94-126; Daniel & Hayes: op. cit. (note 40), pp. 79-112. Back

Note 80: Batchelor, Peter & Susan Willett: Disarmament and Defence Industrial Adjustment in South Africa (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1998); Cawthra, Gavin: Securing South Africa's Democracy, Defence, Development and Security in Transition (Houndsmills, Basingstroke: Macmillan, 1997); Nathan, Laurie: The Changing of the Guard. Armed Forces and Defence Policy in a Democratic South Africa (Pretoria: Human Sciences Research Council Publications, 1994); Cock, Jacklyn & Penny Mckenzie (eds.): From Defence to Development. Redirecting Military Resources in South Africa (Cape Town: David Philip, 1998); Gutteridge, William (ed.): South Africa's Defence and Security into the 21st Century (Aldershot: Dartmouth, 1996); Liebenberg, Ian: "The Integration of the Military in Post-Liberation South Africa: The Contribution of Revolutionary Armies", Armed Forces and Society, vol. 24, no. 1 (Fall 1997), pp. 105-132. Back

Note 81: Back

Note 82: Figures are taken from SADC Regional Human Development Report 1998 (Harare: SARIPS, 1998), p. 163. Back

Note 83: Howlett, Darryl & John Simpson: "Nuclearisation and Denuclearisation in South Africa", Survival, vol. 35, no. 3 (Autumn 1993), pp. 154-173; Albright, David: "South Africa and the Affordable Bomb", Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, vol. 50, no. 4 (July-August 1994), pp. 37-47; Fischer, David: "Reversing Nuclear Proliferation: South Africa", Security Dialogue, vol. 24, no. 3 (1993), pp. 273-286; Rabert, Bernhard: "South Africa's Nuclear Weapons—A Defused Time Bomb?", Aussenpolitik, vol. 44, no. 3 (Autumn 1993), pp. 232-242; Kelley, Robert E.: "The Iraqi and South African Nuclear Weapon Programs. The Importance of Management", Security Dialogue, vol. 27, no. 1 (March 1996), pp. 27-38; Reiss, Mitchell: Bridled Ambitions. Why Countries Constrain Their Nuclear Capabilities (Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 1995), pp. 7-44. Back

Note 84: Oyebade, Adebayo: "African Security and Nuclear Weapons", in idem & Abiodun Alao (eds.): Africa after the Cold War (Trenton: Africa World Press, 1998), pp. 91-.115; Sy, Ibrahima: "A Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in Africa", Disarmament, vol. 16, no. 3 (1993), pp. 92-102; Beri, Ruchita: "African Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Treaty", Strategic Analysis (New Delhi: Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses), vol. 19, no. 4 (July 1996), pp. 615-624; Adeniji, Olu: "The Pelindaba Text and Its Provisions", Disarmament, vol. 19, no. 1 (1996), pp. 1-12; Selassie, Tilahun: "The African Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone and Sustainable Development on the Continent", ibid., pp. 39-52; Ogunbanwo, Sola: "History of the Efforts to Establish an African Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone", ibid., pp. 13-20; idem: "The Treaty of Pelindaba: Africa is Nuclear-Weapon-Free", Security Dialogue, vol. 27, no. 2 (June 1996), pp. 185-200; "The African Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty (The Treaty of Pelindaba)", ibid., pp. 233-240. Back

Note 85: Buzan: op. cit. (note 1), pp. 153-160; Holsti, Kalevi J.: The State, War, and the State of War (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996), passim. Back

Note 86: Clapham, Christopher (ed.): African Guerillas (Oxford: James Curry, 1998). On the internationalization of ethnic conflicts see Keller, Edmond J.: "Transnational Ethnic Conflict in Africa", in David A. Lake & Donald Rothchild (eds.): The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict. Fear, Diffusion and Escalation (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1998), pp. 275-292; Stedman, Stephen John: "Conflict and Conciliation in Sub-Saharan Africa", in Michael E. Brown (ed.): The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1996), pp. 235-266. Back

Note 87: Anderson, Malcolm: Frontiers. Territory and State Formation in the Modern World (Cambridge; Polity Press, 1996), pp. 78-87. The reason is, of course, that most of these borders were drawn by the European colonial powers. See Pakenham, Thomas: The Scramble for Africa (London: Abacus, 1991); Vandervort, Bruce: Wars of Imperial Conquest in Africa, 1830-1914 (London: UCL Pressm, 1998). Back

Note 88: Clapham, Christopher: Africa and the International System. The Politics of State Survival (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996); Ayittey, George B.N.: Africa in Chaos (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1998); Ayoob, Mohammed: The Third World Security Predicament. State Making, Regional Conflict, and the International System (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1995). For a comparison see Du Toit, Pierre: State Building and Democracy in Southern Africa. Botswana, Zimbabwe, and South Africa (Washington, D.C.: United States Institute for Peace Press, 1995). On failed states see Zartmann, William I. (ed.): Collapsed States. The Disintegration and Restoration of Legitimate Authority (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1995); Reno, William: Warlord Politics and African States (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1998); Herbst, Jeffrey: "Responding to State Failure in Africa", International Security, vol. 21, no. 3 (Winter 1996/97), pp. 120-144; Joseph, Richard & Jeffrey Herbst: "Correspondence: Responding to State Failure in Africa", ibd., vol. 22, no. 2 (Fall 1997), pp. 175-184; Mazrui, Ali A.: "The Failed State and Political Collapse in Africa", in Olara A. Otunnu & Michael W. Doyle (eds.): Peacemaking and Peacekeeping for the New Century (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield, 1998), pp. 233-244. On Liberia see Sawyer, Amos: The Emergence of Autocracy in Liberia. Tragedy and Challenge (San Francisco: ICS Press, 1992); Huband, Mark: The Liberian Civil War (London: Frank Cass, 1998). On Somalia see the works listed in note 79 above and Ahmed, Ismail I. & Reginald Herbold Green: "The Heritage of War and State Collapse in Somalia and Somaliland; Local-level Effects, External Interventions and Reconstruction", Third World Quarterly, vol. 20, no. 1 (February 1999), pp. 113-128. On Sierra Leone see Zark-Williams, Alfred B.: "Sierra Leone: The Political Economy of Civil War, 1991-98", Third World Quarterly, vol. 20, no. 1 (February 1999), pp. 143-162. Back

Note 89: Weber, Max: "Politics as Vocation" (1918), in H.H. Gerth & C. Wright Mills (eds.): From Max Weber: Essays in Sociology (New York: Galaxy Books, 1958), pp. 77-128, quote from p. 78. Back

Note 90: Cock, Jacklyn: "The Cultural and Social Challenge of Demilitarization", in Gavin Cawthra & Bjørn Møller (eds.): Defensive Restructuring of the Armed Forces in Southern Africa (Aldershot: Ashgate, 1997), pp. 117-144; Chetty, Robert (ed.): Firearm Use and Distribution in South Africa (Pretoria: National Crime Prevention Centre, 2000). Back

Note 91: On mercenaries see Shearer, David: "Private Armies and Military Intervention", Adelphi Papers, no. 316 (1998); Botha, Chris: "Soldiers of Fortune or Whores of War?: The Legal Position of Mercenaries with Specific Reference to South Africa", Strategic Review for Southern Africa, vol. 15, no. 2 (1993), pp. 75-91; Gonçalves, Fernando: "Dogs of War, or War of Dogs?", Southern African Political and Economic Monthly, vol. 10, no. 6 (March 1997), pp. 4-6; Cilliers, Jakkie & Peggy Mason (eds.): Peace, Profit or Plunder? The Privatisation of Security in War-Torn African Societies (Halfway House: Institute for Security Studies, 1999); Mills, Greg & John Stremlau (eds.): The Privatisation of Security in Africa (Braamfontein: South African Institute of International Affairs, 1999); Musah, Abdel-Fatau & J. 'Kayode Fayemi (eds.): Mercenaries. An African Security Dilemma (London: Pluto Press, 1999). On the European experience see Hale, J.R.: War and Society in Renaissance Europe 1450-1620 (Phoenix Mill: Sutton Publishing, 1988), pp. 127-176. For an eye-witness account and critique see Machiavelli, Niccolò: The Prince (Harmondsworth: Penguin Classics, 1999), pp. 39-40 & passim; idem: The Art of War (New York: Da Capo Press, 1965), pp. 14-16 & passim. Back

Note 92: Wembou, Michel-Cyr Djiena: "The OAU and International Law", in Yassin El-Ayoutu (ed.): The Organization of African Unity After Thirty Years (Westport: Praeger Press, 1994), pp. 15-25; Gomes, Solomon: "The OAU, State Sovereignty, and Regional Security", in Edmond J. Keller & Donald Rothchild (eds.): Africa in the New World Order (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1996), pp. 37-51. Back

Note 93: For a comparison of the different attempted peace deals see Ohlson, Thomas: Power Politics and Peace Politics. Intra-State Conflict Resolution in Southern Africa. Report no. 50 (Uppsala: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, 1998); idem & Stephen John Stedman, with Robert Davies: The New Is Not Yet Born. Conflict Resolution in Southern Africa (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1994). On Mozambique see Hume, Cameron: Ending Mozambique's War. The Role of Mediation and Good Offices (Washington, D.C.: United States Institute for Peace Press, 1994); Synge, Richard: Mozambique. UN Peacekeeping in Action, 1992-94 (Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1997); Msabaha, Ibrahim: "Negotiating an End to Mozambique's Murderous Rebellion", in I. William Zartman (ed.): Elusive Peace. Negotiating an End to Civil Wars (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1995), pp. 204-230; Schiedman, Witney W.: "Conflict Resolution in Mozambique", in David R. Smock (ed.): Making War and Waging Peace. Foreign Intervention in Africa (Washington, DC: United States Institute for Peace, 1993), pp. 219-238; Turner, J. Michael, Sue Nelson & Kimberley Mahlling-Clark: "Mozambique's Vote for Democratoc Governance", in Krishna Kumar (ed.): Postconflict Elections, Democratization, and International Assistance (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1998), pp. 153-175. On Namibia see Papp, Daniel S.: "The Angolan Civil War and Namibia. The Role of External Intervention", ibid., pp. 161-196. Back

Note 94: See Seybolt, Taylor B.: "Major Armed Conflicts", SIPRI Yearbook 2000, pp. 15-58; Wallensteen, Peter & Margareta Sollenberg: "Armed Conflict, 1989-99", Journal of Peace Research, vol. 37, no. 5 (September 2000), pp. 635-650. Back

Note 95: Hare, Paul: Angola's Last Best Chance for Peace. An Indsider's Account of the Peace Process (Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1998); Vine, Alex: "Angola: 40 Years of War", Track Two, vol. 9, no. 2 (Cape Town: Centre for Conflict Resolution, June 2000), pp. 1-32. Back

Note 96: Shearer, David: "Africa's Great War", Survival, vol. 41, no. 2 (Summer 1999), pp. 89-106; Seybolt, Taylor B.: "The War in the Democratic Republic of Congo", SIPRI Yearbook 2000, pp. 59-76; Baregu, Mwesiga (ed.): Crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo (Harare: SAPES Books, 1999); Mandaza, Ibbo (ed.): Reflection on the Crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo (Harare: Sapes Books, 1999). Back

Note 97: That politics at all levels is dominated by personal bonds is one of the main points in Chabal, Patrick & Jean-Pascal Daloz: Africa Works. Disorder as a Political Instrument (Oxford: James Currey Publishers, 1999). Back

Note 98: On the general problem see the series on "Managing Arms in Peace Processes" by the Disarmament and Conflict Resolution Project of UNIDIR: on Somalia (UNIDIR/95/30); Mozambique, (UNIDIR/96/22); Rhodesia/Zimbabwe (UNIDIR/95/41); and Liberia (UNIDIR/96/32); and "Small Arms Management and Peacekeeping in Southern Africa" (UNIDIR/96/21); Gamba, Virginia: "Small Arms in Southern Africa: Reflections on the Extent of the Problem and Its Management Potential", ISS Monograph Series, no. 42 (Pretoria: Institute for Security Studies, 1999); ida (ed.): "Society under Siege. Crime, Violence and Illegal Weapons", Towards Collaborative Peace Series, vol. 1 (Halfway House: Institute for Security Studies, 1997); ida (ed.) "Society Under Siege. Licit Responses to Illicit Arms", ibid., vol. 2 (1998); Oosthuysen, Glenn: Small Arms Proliferation and Control in Southern Africa (Braamfontein: South African Institute of International Affairs, 1996); Greene, Owen, Mike Bourne, Victoria Gardener & Christopher Louise: "Light Weapons and Peacebuilding in Central and East Africa", Report (London: International Alert, 1999); Lock, Peter: "Light Weapons and Conflict in Africa", Peace and Security, no. 31 (Vienna: International Institute for Peace, December 1999), pp. 31-36; Vines, Alex: "Small Arms Proliferation: A Major Challenge for Post-apartheid South and Southern Africa", in David Simon (ed.): South Africa in Southern Africa. Reconfiguring the Region (Oxford: James Curry, 1998), pp. 36-53; Boutwell, Jeffrey & Michael T. Klare (eds.): Light Weapons and Civil Conflict. Controlling the Tools of Violence (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield, 1999), pp. 29-47, 129-158; Fung, Ivor Richard: "Control and Collection of Light Weapons in the Sahel-Sahara Subregion: A Mission Report", Disarmament, vol. 19, no. 2 (1996), pp. 44-50; Lumpe, Lora: "Curbing the Proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons", Security Dialogue, vol. 30, no. 2 (June 1999), pp. 151-164; Dhanapala, Jayantha & al. (eds.): Small Arms Control. Old Weapons, New Issues (Geneva: UNIDIR and Aldershot: Ashgate, 1999), pp. 127-166. On the West African initiatives see Danowaki, Mitsuro: "Developing Associated Transparency Measures for Light Weapons and Small Arms and a Regional Arms Register in West Africa", Disarmament, vol. 20, no. 2/3 (1997), pp. 103-124; Seck, Jacqueline: "West Africa Small Arms Moratorium: High-Level Consultations on the Modalities for the Implementation of PCASED. A Report on the Experts' Meeting and the Civil Society Meeting 23-24 March 1999, Bamako, Mali", UNIDIR, 2000/2 (Geneva: UNIDIR, 2000). Back

Note 99: Baratta, Joseph Preston: "The Kellogg-Briand Pact and the Outlawry of War", in Richard Dean Burns (ed.): Encyclopedia of Arms Control and Disarmament, vols. I-III (New York: Charles Scribner's Sons, 1993), vol. II, pp. 695-705; Korman, Sharon: The Right of Conquest. The Acquisition of Territory by Force in International Law and Practice (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1996). Back

Note 100: Ayoob: op. cit. (note 88). On the role of war in state-building see Krippendorff, Ekkehardt: Staat und Krieg. Die historische Logik politischer Unvernunft (Frankfurt: Suhrkamp Verlag, 1984); Mann, Michael: The Sources of Social Power. Volume I. A history of power from the beginning to A.D. 1760 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1986); idem: The Sources of Social Power. Volume II. The Rise of Classes and Nation-States, 1760-1914 (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1993); idem: States, War and Capitalism (Oxford: Blackwell Publishing, 1988); Tilly, Charles: Coercion, Capital and European States, AD 990-1990 (Cambridge: Basil Blackwell, 1990); Giddens, Anthony: The Nation-State and Violence (Oxford: Polity Press, 1995); Porter, Bruce: War and the Rise of the State (New York: The Free Press, 1994); Spruyt: op. cit. (note 13). Back

Note 101: See Friedman, Steven & Doreen Atkinson (eds.): The Small Miracle. South Africa's Negotiated Settlement. South Africa Review 7 (Johannesburg: Ravan Press, 1994); Marks, Susan Colin: Watching the Wind. Conflict Resolution During South Africa's Transition to Democracy (Washington, D.C: United States Institute for Peace, 2000); Asmal, Kader, Louise Asmal & Ronald Suresh Roberts: Reconciliation through Truth. A Reckoning of Apartheid''s Criminal Governance. Second Edition (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1997); Gastrow, Peter: Bargaining for Peace. South Africa and the National Peace Accord (Washington, D.C.: United States Institute for Peace, 1995); Ottaway, Marina: South Africa. The Struggle for a New Order (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1993). On the economic problems accompanying democratization see Marais, Hein: South Africa: Limits to Change. The Political Economy of Transformation (London: Zed Books, 1998). Back

Note 102: On democratization in Africa see Bratton, Michael: "International versus Domestic Pressures for Democratisation in Africa", in William Hale & Eberhard Kienle (eds.): After the Cold War. Security and Democracy in Africa and Asia (London: I.B. Tauris, 1997), pp. 156-193; Akinrade, Sola: "The Re-democratization Process in Africa: plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose?", in idem & Sesay: op. cit. (note 78), pp. 73-94. Back

Note 103: Gershoni, Yekutiel: "The Changing Pattern of Military Takeovers in Subsaharan Africa", Armed Forces and Society, vol. 23, no. 2 (Winter 1996), pp. 235-248; Wang, T.Y.: "Arms Transfers and Coups d'État: A Study on Sub-Saharan Africa", Journal of Peace Research, vol. 35, no. 6 (November 1998), pp. 659-675. On praetorianism see Desch, Michael E.: Civilian Control of the Military. The Changing Security Environment (Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press, 1999); Pearlmutter, Amos: The Military and Politics and Modern Times: On Professionals, Praetorians, and Revolutionary Soldiers (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1977); Huntington, Samuel P.: The Third Wave. Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991), pp. 231-253. See also idem: The Soldier and the State.: The Theory and Politics of Civil-Military Relations (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1957); Finer, Samuel E.: The Man on Horseback. The Role of the Military in Politics, 2nd ed. (Harmondsworth: Penguin Books, 1976); Janowitz, Morris: The Professional Soldier: A Social and Political Portrait (New York: Free Press, 1960). Back

Note 104: On economic dependency and globalization see Thomas, Caroline & Peter Wilkin (eds.): Globalization, Insecurity, and the African Experience (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1999). On aid see Lancaster, Carol: Aid to Africa. So Much to Do, So Little Done (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1999); Anderson, Mary B.: Do No Harm. How Aid Can Support Peace—or War (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1999). Back

Note 105: See SADC Regional Human Development Report 1998 (op. cit., note 82), pp. 22-29. Back

Note 106: Palm, Anne (ed.): Cooperation or Conflict: Ways of Managing Scarce Natural Resources in Africa (Helsinki: KATU. Citizens' Security Council, 1999); Homer-Dixon, Thomas F.: Environment, Scarcity, and Violence (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999), passim; Percival, Val & idem: "Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict: The Case of South Africa", Journal of Peace Research, vol. 35, no. 3 (May 1998), pp. 278-298; Elhance, Arun P.: Hydropolitics in the 3rd World. Conflict and Cooperation in International River Basins (Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1999), pp. 53-84; Alao, Abiodun: "The Environment and African Security: Implications of Continued Neglect", in Oyebade & idem (eds.): op. cit. (note 84), pp. 63-90. Back

Note 107: Adenji, Oluyemi: "Regionalism in Africa", Security Dialogue, vol. 24, no. 2 (1993), pp. 211-220; Ayafor, Chungong & Jean-Pelé Fomete: "Towards a Subregional Agenda for Peace in Central Africa", Disarmament, vol. 19, no. 1 (1996), pp. 73-94; Keller, Edmond J.: "Rethinking African Regional Security", in David A. Lake & Patrick M. Morgan (eds.): Regional Orders. Building Security in a New World (University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press, 1997), pp. 296-317; Zartman, I. William: "African Regional Security and Changing Patterns of Relations", in Keller & Rothchild (eds.): op. cit. (note 92), pp. 52-68. On ECOWAS see Mortimer, Robert A.: "ECOMOG, Liberia, and Regional Security in West Africa", ibid., pp. 149-164; Vogt, Margaret Aderinsola: "The Involvement of ECOWAS in Liberia's Peacekeeping", ibid., pp. 165-183; Kwesi-Aning, Emmanuel: Security in the West-African Subregion. An Analysis of ECOWAS's Policies in Liberia (Copenhagen: Institute of Political Science, University of Copenhagen, 1999); Kacowicz: op. cit. (note 4), pp. 125-176. On SADC see Aardt, M. van: "The Emerging Security Framework in Southern Africa: Regime or Community", Strategic Review for Southern Africa, vol. 19, no. 1 (May 1997), pp. 1-30; Baynham, Simon: "Regional Security in the Third World with Specific Reference to Southern Africa", Strategic Review for Southern Africa, vol. 16, no. 1 (March 1994), pp. 84-111; Booth, Ken & Peter Vale: "Security in Southern Africa: After Apartheid, Beyond Realism", International Affairs, vol. 71, no. 2 (April 1995), pp. 285-304; Booth, Ken: "A Security Regime in Southern Africa: Theoretical Considerations", Southern African Perspectives, no. 30 (Belville: Centre for Southern African Studies, University of the Western Cape, 1994); Cawthra, Gavin: "Subregional Security: The Southern African Development Community", Security Dialogue, vol. 28, no. 2 (June 1997), pp. 207-218; Cilliers, Jakkie: "Building Security in Southern Africa. An Update on the Evolving Architecture", ISS Monograph Series, no. 43 (Pretoria: Institute for Security Studies, 1999); idem: "The Evolving Security Architecture in (Southern) Africa", in William Gutteridge & J.E. Spence (eds.): Violence in Southern Africa (London: Frank Cass, 1997), pp. 124-155; idem & Mark Malan: "SADC Organ on Politics, Defence and Security: Future Development", Strategic Analysis, vol. 20, no. 2 (New Delhi: IDSA, May 1997), pp. 201-222; Pisani, Andre du: "South Africa and the Region", in Greg Mills (ed.): From Pariah to Participant. South Africa's Evolving Foreign Relations, 1990-1994 (Braamfontein: South African Institute of International Affairs, 1994), pp. 52-69; Swatuk, Larry A. & Abillah H. Omari: "Regional Security: Southern Africa's Mobile ""Front Line""", Southern African Perspectives, no. 61 (Belleville: Centre for Southern African Studies, University of the Western Cape, 1997); Omari, Abillah H.: "Regional Security: One View from the Front Line States", The Arusha Papers. A Working Series on Southern African Security, no. 5 (Belville: Centre for Southern African Studies, University of the Western Cape, 1995); Vale, Peter: "Regional Security in Southern Africa", Alternatives, vol. 21, no. 3 (July-Sept. 1996), pp. 363-391; Sidaway, James D. & Richard Gibb: "SADC, COMESA, SACU: Contradictory Formats for Regional ""Integration"" in Southern Africa", in Simon (ed.): op. cit. (note 98), pp. 164-184. Back

Note 108: Wæver, Ole: "Identities", in Judit Balázs & Håkan Wiberg (eds.): Peace Research for the 1990s (Budapest: Akadémiai Kiadó, 1993), pp. 135-150; idem & al.: op. cit. (note 1); Lapid, Yosef & Friedrich Kratochwill: "Revisiting the ""National"": Toward an Identity Agenda in Neorealism", in idem & idem (eds.): The Return of Culture and Identity in IR Theory (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1995), pp. 105-126; Lindholm, Helena: "Introduction: A Conceptual Discussion", in idem (ed.): Ethnicity and Nationalism. Formation of Identity and Dynamics of Conflict in the 1990s (Göteborg: Nordnes, 1993), pp. 1-39 Nicholson, Linda & Steven Seidman (eds.): Social Postmodernism. Beyond Identity Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995). Back

Note 109: An excellent analysis of the identity conflict in Sudan is Deng, Francis M.: War of Visions. Conflict of Identities in the Sudan (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1995). See also idem, Sadikiel Kimaro, Terrence Lyons, Donald Rothchild & I. William Zartman: Sovereignty as Responsibility. Conflict Management in Africa (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1996), pp. 61-92. Back

Note 110: Wæver, Ole: "Europe, State and Nation in the New Middle Ages", in Jaap de Wilde & Håkan Wiberg (eds.): Organized Anarchy in Europe. The Role of States and Intergovernmental Organizations (London: I.B. Tauris, 1996), pp.107-130; idem: "After Neo-Medievalism: Imperial Metaphors for European Security", in J. Peter Burgess (ed.): "Cultural Politics and Political Culture in Postmodern Europe", Post-Modern Studies, vol. 24 (1997), pp. 321-363. The theoretical background is, above all, Ruggie, John Gerard: "Continuity and Transformation in the World Polity: Toward a Neorealist Synthesis", in Robert O. Keohane (ed.): Neorealism and Its Critics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1986), pp. 131-157. Back

Note 111: See, e.g., Cheatham, Marcus: "War, Military Spending, and Food Security in Africa", in Norman A. Graham (ed.): Seeking Security and Development. The Impact of Military Spending and Arms Transfers (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1994), pp. 229-253; Gyimah-Brempong, Kwabena: "Do African Governments Favor Defense in Budgeting?", Journal of Peace Research, vol. 29, no. 2 (May 1992), pp. 191-206; Dunne, J. Paul & Nadir A.L. Mohammed: "Military Spending in Sub-Saharan Africa: Some Evidence for 1967-85", ibid., vol. 32, no. 3 (August 1995), pp. 331-343; Muepu, K.: "Defence Expenditures Reduction and the Re-Allocation of Resources in Southern Africa with Specific Reference to South Africa", Strategic Review for Southern Africa, vol. 20, no. 1 (May 1998), pp. 58-90. On the general relationship between military spending and development see Ball, Nicole: Security and Economy in the Third World (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1988). Back

Note 112: For an argument to the contrary see Evans, David, Peter Holmes & Ibbo Mandaza: SADC: The Cost of Non-Integration (Harare: SAPES Books, 1999). Back

Note 113: Schimmelfennig, Frank: "The CSCE as a Model for the Third World? The Middle East and African Cases", in Lucas (ed.): op. cit. (note 42), pp. 319-334; Nathan, Laurie: "Towards a Conference on Security, Stability, Development and Co-Operation in Southern Africa", Southern African Perspectives, no. 13 (Bellville: Centre for Southern African Studies, University of the Western Cape, 1992). Back

Note 114: On the OAU's security political roles and instruments see Salim, Salim Ahmed: "The OAU Role in Conflict Management", in Otunnu & Doyle (eds.): op. cit. (note 88), pp. 233-244; Sur, Serge: "Vers la marginalisation de l'ONU dans le domaine du maintien de la paix?", Arés, vol. 17, no. 1 (October 1998), pp. 11-24; Matthies, Volker: "Die friedens—politische Rolle der Organisation der Afrikanischen Einheit: Der OAU-""Mechanismus für die Prävention, das Management und die Lösung von Konflikten""", S+F. Vierteljahresschrift für Sicherheit und Frieden, vol. 15, no. 3 (1997), pp. 185-192; May, Roy & Simon Massay: "The OAU Interventions in Chad: Mission Impossible or Mission Evaded?", International Peacekeeping, vol. 5, no. 1 (Spring 1998), pp. 46-65; Jonah, James O.C.: "The OAU: Peace Keeping and Conflict Resolution", in El-Ayoutu: op. cit. (note 92), pp. 3-14; Amoo, Sam G.: "Role of the OAU. Past, Present, and Furure", in Smock (ed.): op. cit. (note 93), pp. 239-261; Kiplagat, B.A.: "The African Role in Conflict Management and Resolution", in David R. Smock & Chester A. Crocker (eds.): African Conflict Resolution. The U.S. Role in Peacemaking (Washington, D.C.: United States Institute for Peace Press, 1995), pp. 27-38; Cohen, Herman J: "African Capabilities for Managing Conflicts", ibid., pp. 77-94; Sesay, Amadu: "Regional and Sub-regional Conflict Management Efforts", in Akinrade & idem (eds.): op. cit. (note 78), pp. 43-72. For various case studies see Adedeji, Adebayo (ed.): Comprehending and Mastering African Conflicts. The Search for Sustainable Peace and Good Governance (London: Zed Books, 1999). Back

Note 115: On past missions see Vogt, Margaret A.: "Regional Arrangements, the United Nations, and Security in Africa", in Muthia Alagappa & Takashi Inoguchi (eds.): International Security Management and the United Nations (Tokyo: Unityed Nations University Press, 1999), pp. 295-322; Durch, William J.: "The UN Operation in the Congo: 1960-1964", in idem (ed.): The Evolution of UN Peacekeeping: Case Studies and Comparative Analysis (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1993), pp. 315-352; idem: "United Nations Mission for the Referundum in Western Sahara", ibid., pp. 406-435; Fortna, Virginia Page: "United Nations Angopla Verification Mission I", ibid., pp. 376-387; ida: "United Nations Angopla Verification Mission II", ibid., pp. 388-405; Lodico, Yvonne C.: "Peace that Fell Apart: The United Nations and the War in Angola", in William J. Durch (ed.): UN Peacekeeping, American Politics and the Uncivil Wars of the 1990s (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1996), pp. 103-133; Reed, Pamela L.: "The Politics of Reconciliation: The United Nations Operation in Mozambique", ibid., pp. 275-310; Durch, William J.: "Introduction to Anarchy: Humanitarian Intervention and ""State-Building"" in Somalia", ibid., pp. 311-365; Vacarro, J. Matthew: "The Politics of Genocide: Peacekeeping and Disaster Relief in Rwanda", ibid., pp. 367-407. See also the works on Somalia quoted in note 76. Back

Note 116: An example of this was ECOWAS's intervention in the Liberia. See, e.g. the works quoted in note 107 and Howe, Herbert: "Lessons of Liberia. ECOMOG and Regional Peacekeeping", International Security, vol. 21, no. 3 (Winter 1996/97), pp. 145-17; Wippman, David: "Enforcing the Peace: ECOWAS and the Liberian Civil War", in Damrosch (ed.): op. cit. (note 79), pp. 157-204; Sesay, Max Ahmadu: "Collective Security or Collective Disaster? Regional Peace-keeping in West Africa", Security Dialogue, vol. 26, no. 2 (June 1995), pp. 205-222; Kwesi-Aning: op. cit. (note 107). See also Furley, Oliver & Roy May (eds.): Peacekeeping in Africa (Aldershot: Ashgate, 1998); Cilliers, Jakkie: "A South African Peacekeeping Force—Is It Practicable?", in African Defence Review. A Working Paper Series, no. 11 (Halfway House, RSA: Institute for Defence Policy, 1993); idem & Greg Mills (eds.): From Peacekeeping to Complex Emergencies. Peace Support Missions in Africa (Johannesburg: South African Institute of International Affairs and Pretoria: Institute for Security Studies, 1999), idem & Greg Mills (eds.): Peacekeeping in Africa (Braamfontein: South African Institute of International Affairs/Halfway House: Institute for Defence Policy, 1996); Malan, Mark (ed.): "Boundaries of Peace Support Operations: The African Dimension", ISS Monograph Series, no. 44 (Pretoria: ISS, February 2000); Mtimkulu, Bereng: "South Africa: Reluctant Peacekeeper", Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, vol. 52, no. 1 (January-February, 1996), pp. 9-10; Neethling, T.: "The US Response to African Peace-Keeping Requirements: Perspectives on the African Crisis Response Initiative and Beyond", Strategic Review for Southern Africa, vol. 20, no. 1 (May 1998), pp. 91-113; Olonisakin, 'Funmi: "African ""Homemade"" Peacekeeping Initiatives", Armed Forces and Society, vol. 25, no. 3 (Spring 1997), pp. 349-372. Back