CIAO DATE: 08/2009
September 2008
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
While the current European Union energy policy is forward thinking in its targets for renewable energy, economizing, and emission reduction, it falls short in its failure to recognize the security threat of the increasing dependence on Russian hydrocarbons - in particular, natural gas.
This paper proposes a diversification strategy with concrete steps that can be taken in a variety of energy policy areas to create, over the long-term, a more balanced approach to meeting energy needs. Europe must undertake such a strategy not only because over-reliance on any one source represents unsound policy, but more importantly because domination of the European market has been a clear and calculated goal that an unreliable Russian administration has been working towards for several years. Russian domination of the European natural gas market would give the Kremlin incredible leverage in its dealings with its European neighbors. Europe's dependence on Russia for natural gas already profoundly affects the freedom of action of certain European states and will increasingly erode European sovereignty. Several factors could mitigate Russia's capability to monopolize natural gas markets on the European continent.
This article also discusses these factors, in particular in the context of the kind of steps greater Europe could take to ensure Russia does not realize its goal of reasserting coercive influence through its ‘energy weapon.'
Resource link: Europe's Dependence on Russian Natural Gas: Perspectives and Recommendations for a Long-term Strategy [PDF] - 1.8M