Columbia International Affairs Online: Working Papers

CIAO DATE: 08/2014

Shadow Wars of Weapons Acquisition: Arms Denial and its Strategic Implications

Sarit Markovich, Oren Setter

July 2014

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University

Abstract

In trying to prevent adversaries from acquiring new military capabilities, countries often employ strategies of arms denial; e.g., “unilateral diplomacy,” supply chain interdiction, covert sabotage, and targeted military strikes. Using a game-theoretical model of weapons acquisition and denial, the authors posit that the prevalence of this approach gives rise to strategic effects that affect all players’ behavior.