CIAO DATE: 03/2014
February 2014
In its latest report, Left in the Cold? The ELN and Colombia’s Peace Talks, the International Crisis Group examines the opportunities for talks between Bogotá and the National Liberation Army (ELN). As the Havana-based peace talks with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), Colombia’s largest guerrilla group, look increasingly promising, pressure is growing to open a separate, but coordinated, negotiation with the ELN. Yet getting there is proving difficult. The ELN thinks the government needs to make an overture ! or risk ongoing conflict; the government believes the ELN must show flexibility or risk being left out. But delay is in neither’s long-term interest. They should open negotiations soonest. The report’s major findings and recommendations are: Although weakened, the ELN is not close to defeat. Stronger involvement in the drug economy and illegal mining has helped it resist military pressure and even begin a tentative recovery. Postponing negotiations with the ELN until after a deal with FARC has been reached might appear attractive but would not be prudent, as continuation of the conflict would then risk undermining implementation of a possible FARC deal. Even more than the government, the ELN has an interest in engaging in talks soon. Failure to do so would expose the organisation to escalating military operations, growing pressure to adhere to outcomes reached only with FARC and ever fewer possibilities to negotiate issues beyond the terms of its own demobilisation. ELN demands for a wide agenda and broad social participation in talks are at odds with the Havana template’s narrow and confidential focus. Nonetheless, common ground exists, and an agenda focusing on transitional justice, political participation and (the ELN’s core grievance) exploitation of natural resources should not be beyond reach.
Resource link: Left in the Cold? The ELN and Colombia's Peace Talks [PDF] - 654K