Columbia International Affairs Online: Working Papers

CIAO DATE: 08/2013

Ethiopia: Prospects for Peace in Ogaden

August 2013

International Crisis Group

Abstract

Nearly a year after the talks facilitated by Kenya between the Ethiopian government and Ogaden National Liberati on Front (ONLF) rebels sta lled in October 2012, there are signs that the process may restart. Oste nsibly, it was the ONLF’s refusal to recognise the Ethiopian constitution that halted the initial dialogue, but that issue covers more fundamental divides, and these remain . Nevertheless there are solid reasons why this is a promising time for both parties, as well as neighbouring countries and other international partners, to try to renew meaningful talks. Two decades of deadly conflict – especially an intense five-year, relatively successful government counter-insurgency campaign – have exhausted the local Ethiopian-Somali population sufficiently to push the ONLF back to the table. Likewise, Addis Ababa’s determination to accelerate economic growth, especially by exploiting the resources of its lowland peripheries, not least hydrocarbons, also argues for sustainable peace.